Prospects

3 Under the Radar Prospects for 2013

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoDo Mojo

As we begin the 2013 Mariners season there is more focus on our minor league system than ever, names like Zunino, Walker, Hultzen and Paxton are commonly known. The quality of the major league team may play a role in this, but quite simply, the M’s have a lot of good prospects. And while I could write an article on any of our main prospects, plenty has already been written about them. Instead I will focus on three prospects who have not garnered as much attention but could very easily impact the big league roster in 2014 and even 2013, if everything breaks the right way. There are obvious reasons that these guys aren’t known as well, two are relievers and one is a catcher who’s last name isn’t Zunino. But these three are names that Mariners fans should keep in the back of their heads. Now, without further ado, I give you the three Mariners Minor League Breakout Players in 2013. Carson Smith, John Hicks, Bobby LaFromboise.

Carson Smith RHP AA Jackson
The first thing that made Smith pop up on my radar was his performance in the Arizona Fall League last year. He pitched in 15 innings and struck out 18 batters, only walking 4. That is very impressive, regardless of the level of competition in the AFL. The second thing that makes Smith stand out is that he actually pitched well in A+ High Desert, a stadium that would make Brendan Ryan look like Troy Tulowitzki. What makes Smith a really intriguing prospect is that he throws a hard sinker in the low-to-mid 90’s that can be both a strikeout pitch and generates a large number of groundballs. So while he does not throw 100 MPH like Capps or Pryor, he gets better movement on his fastball and has a very good slider. What could limit his effectiveness is a history of shoulder issues stemming from his pitching motion, which puts a lot of stress on his arm. However, if Smith stays healthy I see him competing for a bullpen spot as early as next year.

John Hicks C AA Jackson
A lot of attention has been paid to Mike Zunino as the catcher of the future in Seattle, and rightfully so. But do not look past Hicks as a potential backup for Zunino or at first base. Hicks hit very well in High Desert last year, but most players hit the ball well there. His results against AA pitching will be something to monitor after being drafted in 2011 and showing a strong bat in A and A+ ball. What I like about Hicks is that he has good contact skills and gap power, combined with decent plate discipline. This may not be the sexy, Zunino-esque line that fans may want to see, but Hicks definitely projects to be an effective hitter at the higher levels. He also stole 22 bases last year in High Desert so he isn’t as maddeningly slow as Jesus Montero. I doubt Hicks will see an aggressive promotion schedule with Zunino and Jesus Sucre ahead of him in Tacoma, but if (when) Zunino gets called up, Hicks will be the first in line to fill his spot.

Bobby LaFromboise LHP Tacoma
When I first saw LaFromboise pitch I was really confused. His motion was a mix of Charlie Furbush but his stuff was closer to Lucas Luetge’s. What LaFromboise profiles, as is a deceptive lefty who can hit the low 90’s but uses his offs peed stuff to great effect. He has struggled with his command, due to his side arm motion that creates a lot of movement on his fastball. After putting up a 1.01 ERA in Jackson after 20 games, LaFromboise moved up to Tacoma where he put up similar numbers. Another bullpen arm, I thought LaFromboise had a chance this spring to challenge Luetge or Furbush for a spot in the bullpen. However, he is down in Tacoma to start the year and I fully expect him to be a lights out reliever after posting 38 K’s in 39 innings there last year. If one of the LHP’s in the bullpen gets hurt or starts to struggle, LaFromboise should be on the short list of potential call-ups. If not, he should see time in the bullpen in September when rosters expand.
Those are the three names all Mariners fans should remember going into this baseball season. Out of the three LaFromboise is the most likely to make an impact on the MLB squad this year, but Carson Smith has the highest ceiling out of the three. Hicks looks to be an above-average backup catcher or even corner outfield/ first base. It is almost a guarantee that a new prospect is going to show up on the scene and cause even more excitement in our minor league system, and I think it will be one of these three players who see huge gains in 2013.

Tags: Bobby LaFromboise, Carson Smith, John Hicks, Mariners General, Projection, Prospect Reports, prospects

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Brandon Maurer’s Beard Makes the Team, Makes It a “Big 4?

Posted on April 1, 2013 by SoDo Mojo

As I am sure each and every one of you know, Brandon Maurer has made the Mariner’s rotation out of Spring Training, giving the finger to AAA, and bypassing it completely in the process. So because this is no longer news, this post isn’t going to focus on him making the team, but will instead focus on him and his past, and serve as a little bit of a bio on Seattle’s newest starting pitcher. He is fairly new to the top prospect scene, so I am sure a lot of you, like me, don’t/didn’t know much about him. And by the way, I will not be talking about his beard either, however I felt it at least deserved to be mentioned in the headline seeing as it is a work of art.

Maurer was drafted out of high school in the 23rd round back in 2008, and started his career later that season making 8 appearances in the Arizona rookie league. He then slowly made his way up the ranks from there, but did not get too much attention at first. He posted a 3.61 ERA and 3.75 FIP in 13 rookie league appearances the following year, which is solid, but not quite good enough to be picked on by people’s radar.

In 2010, he started to show his potential , posting a 1.64 ERA and 1.75 FIP in 4 starts in the rookie league, then being promoted to Single-A Clinton, where he only pitched 4.1 innings before suffering a season ending injury. He started off the following year on another positive note, before struggling in his promotion to A+ High Desert, and then getting injured again (although the injury may have come first, I cannot find any confirmation).

But last year is when things became interesting. Last year is when he stayed healthy. And last year is when he broke out of his shell, and onto prospect lists. He stayed healthy, and spent the entire season in Double-A Jackson with his fellow “Big 4″ members. He finally broke 100 innings, and was able to make a name for himself.

During his 24 starts last season he posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.05 FIP, which isn’t totally mind-blowing by itself. However, what might edge you closer to a total mind-blow is that he had a stretch near the end of the season in which he posted a 2.70 ERA and 3.3 K/BB ratio. To give you a barometer on what a good K/BB is, Felix’s career strikout-to-walk rate is 3.10. So yeah. There’s that.

As for his “stuff”, most reports say he has a mix of 4 average or better pitches, with the slider sticking out the most. The fastball lives in the 92-96 range, but sits pretty regularly in the middle around 93-94. He then mixes in the aforementioned slider, as well as a slower breaking ball and a change-up. It is pretty rare to see a 22 year old with a somewhat fully developed arsenal of 3 pitches, let alone the 4 that Maurer possesses. That alone should give you a good feeling about his future, as well as comfort any worries you may have had about him skipping AAA.

All that brings us to now. Maurer dominated during Spring Training, and, as much as I am sure they would have preferred to give him time in AAA, pretty much made it impossible for the organization to not give him a rotation spot. As firmly as I believe Spring stats overall don’t matter, I will share them anyway for those of you who do.* Brandon pitched 24 innings, posting a 1.50 ERA, walking just 7, and fanning more than 1 per inning, with 25 K’s total. When you pitch that well, its hard to be denied a place on the team, no matter how young you are. Maurer is scheduled to make his MLB debut Thursday against the A’s in Oakland, and I for one, am stoked.

In researching for this post, I, like hopefully most of you after reading, have become extremely excited for this kid. He had always been overshadowed by Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. It was always the Big 3, with Maurer on the outside looking in. But Maurer said “F-you” to that notion, pitched his butt off, and surpassed expectations. He started out behind the Big 3, and ended up on top, beating all of them to The Show. It seems that the stats and scouts both agree that this kid has a bright future as a #3, or even #2 caliber starter for years to come. Maurer flipped the script on the frequently written “The Big 3, and Maurer”, and turned it into “Maurer and the rest of the Big 4.”

Which takes me to my last point. Does anyone think a new name for top pitching specs is in order? Big 3 is a pretty common used term in the sports world, but “Big 4″ just doesn’t do it for me. So I invite you guys, who are probably much more creative with this stuff than me, to comment below and help create an unofficial name to replace “Big 4″. We have a solid community here at SodoMojo, with a lot of faithful readers, so let’s use that to our advantage.

All I can think of is “Fantastic Four”, but that is kind of lame, not to mention trademarked.

And who knows? Maybe the nickname will become widespread, and that will help our community grow even more. The Legion of Boom was started by the 710 ESPN community. Let’s do the same here.

*When guys are competing, how a guy looks in ST can be helpful in the decision making process. But it is just as, and probably more, common for a guy to bomb after a great spring as it is for him to succeed. You have to take the player’s past performace and future projections into account as well, and can’t rely on 20 or so games against less than pro quality pitchers to make these decisions.

Oh, and by the way. 2 hours until Mariner’s baseball starts.

Tags: Brandon Maurer, featured, Mariners General, Popular, prospects, seattle mariners

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Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects (according to JJ)

Posted on January 28, 2013 by SoDo Mojo

The M’s have one of the best farm systems in the league. Jack and company have done a tremendous job of stocking the farm system with tons of young talent. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a great success rate with the recent young prospects that have made their way to the minors. And while some of those guys were brought up in another system, it still might suggest that there is a problem with player development at the higher levels. But that’s a bridge we will cross when we get there. For now, let’s enjoy the immensely talented farm that Seattle boasts, while I rank said players into my own personal top 10 for the upcoming season.

1) Mike Zunino, 21, C
2012 stats: .360/.447/.689 — .484 wOBA — 216 wRC+ — 13 HR in 44 games

I am a huge fan of Zunino and think he is going to be a big time player in this league. By most accounts he is already above average defensively, and from what we saw last year, pretty darn good with the stick too. If he continues to develop, there’s a chance we see him this year. If all goes well, we could be looking at a .290/.360/.480 type of player at a very defensive minded position.

2) Taijuan Walker, 20, RHP
2012 stats: 4.69 ERA — 4.04 FIP — 8.39 K/9 — 3.55 BB/9 — 0.85 HR/9 — 126.2 IP

Walker has all the upside in the world, and the makings of a future top of the rotation pitcher. He would have been my #1, but he had an underwhelming season last year, as seen in the stats above. But due to his age and past performance (2.89 ERA, 2.70 FIP in A ball last year) I am not worried at all about Walker. I look forward to having him behind Felix for years to come, and am happy that Upton nixed the deal and that Walker is still here. If he bounces back and doesn’t flame out, I think we are looking at #2, maybe even #1 caliber pitcher in the future.

3) Danny Hultzen, 23, LHP
2012 stats: AA: 1.19 ERA — 2.84 FIP — 9.44 K/9 — 3.82 BB/9 — 0.24 HR/9 — 75 IP
AAA: 5.92 ERA — 4.29 FIP — 10.54 K/9 — 7.95 BB/9 — 0.37 HR/9 — 48.2 IP

Hultzen, while lacking the upside of Walker, looks like he should be a very solid pitcher at the major league level. He was dominant in AA last year, before moving up to AAA and having some control problems. I think the control issues were mainly due to fatigue, since Hultzen had never pitched that much in one year. He was still striking guys out in bunches, and not giving up too many homers. I think he is a very safe bet to be a great #3 or good #2 pitcher in the MLB.

4) James Paxton, 24, LHP
2012 stats: 3.05 ERA — 3.29 FIP — 9.31 K/9 — 4.57 BB/9 — 0.42 HR/9 — 106.1 IP

Paxton is the oldest and least talked about of the top M’s pitching prospects, but he may be one of the more talented. He brings crazy heat for a lefty (95+), and features a dirty hook. Those are both great things to build a career on. What’s holding him back is his control issues, and lack of a solid third offering. He has a career 4.30 BB/9 in the minors, which FanGraphs says in between below average and poor. As for the third pitch, according to ProjectProspect, “Paxton has a changeup. That’s about the extent of the pitches merits.” Looks as though he will need to improve his third pitch to find success. If he does that, he could be a solid #3 starter in the bigs. If not, we should still see a good lefty reliever.

5) Brad Miller, 23, SS
2012 stats: A: .337/.409/.522 — .406 wOBA — 142 wRC+ — 11 HR in 97 games
AA: .320/.406/.476 — .407 wOBA — 151 wRC+ — 4 HR in 40 games

This rank might come as a surprise to some people, as most think Nick Franklin is the superior player. But I personally think Miller is the better prospect. He played great in his first full year split between A and AA. Although brief, his time in AA showed me that he wasn’t merely a High Desert mirage. He is an on-base machine, and that’s the kind of thing that tends to stick around. Of course there’s always a chance that he doesn’t reproduce those numbers. But for some reason, I still think he will be superior to Franklin. Both have concerns about their defense, but Miller’s seem to be rooted in his hands, as opposed to his physical limitations like Franklin. Reports say Miller will occasionally boot the easy grounders, but has good range and a solid arm. The big knock on him is his age, as he is already 23 and only going into his 2nd season, which is a year older than Franklin. Sometimes you see older guys taking advantage of younger competition, but I think Miller is for real, and that he can be a .280/.345/.450 guy at shortstop for the M’s in the not too distant future.

6) Nick Franklin, 21, SS/2B
2012 stats: AA: .322/.394/.502 — .408 wOBA — 151 wRC+ — 4 HR in 57 games
AAA: .240/.306/.412 – .317 wOBA — 83 wRC+ — 7 HR in 64 games

Franklin is lower on my list than most, and that’s mainly due to a couple things. One, I think Miller is better, thus Franklin goes behind him. And two, I am losing faith in his ability to play short stop. He is beginning to see more and more time at 2nd, and spent most of his time there in the AFL. Unlike Miller, his defensive problems seem to stem from his lack of range and things of that nature. Those are more likely to force a move from short than having slightly clunky hands. It is also much harder to improve physical limitations like that than mechanical issues. Don’t get me wrong, Franklin should be a solid player in the bigs. I just worry that his future is as a decent to good second baseman, rather than a good to great short stop. He should have a solid bat, but a solid bat at shortstop is a lot more valuable than it is at 2nd. Nonetheless, if he starts hitting again, we, or a team we trade him to, could be looking at a .280/.340/.440 middle infielder.

7) Brandon Maurer, 22, RHP
2012 stats: 3.20 ERA — 3.05 FIP — 7.65 K/9 — 3.14 BB/9 — 0.26 HR/9 — 137.2 IP

Maurer (pronounced like Joe Mauer) had a breakout season last year at Double-A Jackson after being fairly average before that. Maurer has a solid pitchers body at 6’5″, 200 pounds, which is always a plus. From what I have seen he has solid, but not overpowering stuff like you might expect from someone his size. Most reports have him around 92-94, and topping out at about 96, with three other offerings- curve, change and slider. The curve seems to be the best of them, followed by the slider and then the change. But all seem to be at least average, which is a very good sign. Secondary pitchers are usually what holds young pitchers back. Having 3, or even better 4, useful pitches is the difference between a talented guy who never made it, and a guy with a major-league future. And if all that isn’t enough, Maurer had a 2.40 ERA over his last ten starts. If he can build on that out of the gate next year and prove he is for real, yo may be able to add another #3, or even #2 starter to the list. Right now, he looks like at least a #4, and could soften the blow if one of the Big 3 are moved.

8) Stefen Romero, 24, 2B/3B
2012 stats: A+: .357/.391/.581 — .415 wOBA — 147 wRC+ — 11 HR
AA: .347/.392/.620 — .449 wOBA — 179 wRC+ — 12 HR

Romero continued his trend of exceeding expectations last year, and won Mariner’s Minor League Player of the Year. Very few people expected him to hit as well as he has, seeing as he was a 12th rounder out of Oregon State, but he has proven all of them wrong. Much like Miller, he hit better in AA than he did in A+, proving that he wasn’t just a High Desert mirage. Most reports say he has solid range at 2nd base, which is surprising from a guy who is 6’3″ 225 pounds. He has also seen time at third, and in the outfield, where I think he will be long term. He probably wouldn’t be more than average at 2nd anyway, but even so, he is blocked by Ackley, and Franklin/Miller. He is also blocked at third by Kyle Seager. That, combined with the fact that this organization has a lot of depth at those spots, tells me Romero should be moved to a corner outfield spot. As of now, his bat fits just fine, and the organization lacks a reliable outfield prospect. Also like Miller, he was old for his level, which can skew the numbers, and presents a chance that he becomes the next Vinnie Catricala. But, I talked to Seattle Clubhouse’s Rick Randall, and he said that Romero has better bat speed, and he isn’t worried about him flaming out, so I will take his word for it. If Romero moves to the outfield, and continues to hit the way he has been this year in AAA, we could be looking at the M’s future left fielder, and a .280/.340/.480 line year in and year out. Needless to say, I am a big fan of Romero as well, and wish I could have put him higher on the list. Just goes to show you how deep this system is.

9) Victor Sanchez, 18, RHP
2012 stats: 3.18 ERA — 3.65 FIP — 7.31 K/9 — 2.86 BB/9 — 0.53 HR/9 — 85 IP

Sanchez was signed out of Venezuela in 2011 at 16 years old, and had his first taste of pro ball last year at 17. He made 15 starts in Everett, and had a solid year. He is listed at about 6’0″ and 250 pounds, which is massive for someone so young. There are positives and negatives about his size. Its good because he is built well, which should make for durability and strength. The downside is that it doesn’t leave a lot of room for growth. There aren’t a ton of reports on him yet as he has only played one year here, and it was in short-season A ball. But from what I have seen, he has a low 90′s fastball and a slider as his go to pitches. You would want/expect someone so big to throw a little harder, and I am sure he will eventually. He may never be a mid-upper 90′s guy, but hopefully he can get it up to the lower-mid 90′s. At this point it is a wait and see situation with him, but he has already had more success than most international signings do, and that’s a good sign .

10) Carter Capps, 22, RHP
2012 MLB stats: 3.96 ERA — 2.17 FIP — 3.47 xFIP — 10.08 K/9 — 3.96 BB/9 — 25 IP

Capps is a hard throwing reliever who was able to fly through both AA and AAA last year, and make 18 appearances for the big club last year. He can hit triple digits on occasion, and is consistently in the high 90′s. He also throws a harder breaking ball, either a slider or a cutter. He was drafted as a starter, but it looks like he will be a back-of-the-pen guy going forward, and that’s probably where he best fits. He put up solid numbers in the minors also, including a 1.29 ERA and 1.63 FIP in AA last year. Capps looks like he should be a reliable bullpen arm for the future, and will probably be a set-up guy for Tom Wilhelmsen this year. If his secondary pitches develop, he should be able to be a closer in the future.

Well, there you have it. Whether you agree with my list or not, its obvious that this is one of the best systems in the league, and should make for a good future in Seattle.

Tags: featured, Mariners General, Mike Zunino, Popular, prospects, seattle mariners

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Robert Andino and the Seattle Mariners

Posted on January 8, 2013 by SoDo Mojo

September 21, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Robert Andino (11) makes a throw to first base during the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Andino‘s deal with the Seattle Mariners just about went unnoticed by many, but it shouldn’t be overlooked. Andino’s was a gain from a deal with the Baltimore Orioles where they sent Trayvon Robinson packing for Birdland. While they have been criticized for this move – after all, it may seem odd to trade a young up and comer for someone who had a .211 batting average for 2012.

However, this 6′ tall second baseman and shortstop may have more to him than meets the immediate eye. For one, his batting average was .385 in 2007, and that was on the heels of two seasons with an average of less than .2. As recently as 2010 and 2011, his averages were .295 and .263, respectively.

As a fielder, he’s pretty strong with a .975 fielding average. Sure, he had 13 errors in the 2012 season, but he also has a lot of fielding experience, which will balance out a lot of the green Mariners on the field. They’ll be gaining a guy who can play third base well, second base well, and who is a natural choice for shortstop. This kind of versatility isn’t hard to find. He’s also a relatively young veteran – only 28 when many of the men with similar experience are 34 or 35 years old. That means he’s got some good years left in him – at least, he has some consistent years left in him.

With a smaller budget than the big spender teams, the Seattle Mariners have to get creative with their team-building efforts. We’ll have to watch and see whether Andino fulfills the roles it appears he will be fulfilling, but something tells me that Jack Zduriencik has something special in mind with his slow gathering of team members this season.

What do you think about the Robert Andino -Robinson trade? Was it a good or bad idea?

Tags: 2013 Season, featured, Popular, prospects, Robert Andino, seattle mariners

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Is Hamilton Even a Possibility for the Mariners?

Posted on December 11, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

Sep 27, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers outfieder Josh Hamilton prior to his at bat in the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone seems to agree that superstar Texas Ranger Josh Hamilton would be a good addition to the Mariners’ lineup – it would bring a much-needed superstar player back to Seattle and give the team power behind the bat. However, one has to wonder whether such a deal is a real possibility for the Mariners. Sure, the team freed up some cash by trading Ichiro to the Yankees, but the team will have to do quite a bit of bargaining in order to lure Hamilton away from potentially larger offers.

So far the stance of the club has involved taking a back seat during the free agent deals and watching to see what happens. This kind of laid-back approach may save them money, but it’s doubtful whether it is the best approach for winning the loyalty and contract of Hamilton, a powerhouse who knocked 43 balls out of the field and ran the bases 128 times.

Todd Pheifer of the Seattle Mariners Bleacher Report points out that the Mariners will have to be quite aggressive if they want to scoop up Hamilton. While it may be the case that grabbing up someone, who even with a 30 home run year would bolster the underdog team’s lineup, will be difficult in light of the Greinke deal with the Dodgers, it’s important that the team doesn’t sleep on this opportunity. Sure, one could make the argument that Hamilton literally dropped the ball in the final game of the playoff series against the Oakland Athletics, but when a team needs power behind the bat its important to take opportunities that pop up.

There has been some speculation that the New York Yankees may swoop in and pick up Hamilton before the Mariners get a chance to make that deal. So far, this appears to be just a rumor. What does seem to be a more substantiated theory is that the Mariners have talked with Hamilton about a three year deal of $20 to $25 million a year (Ken Rosenthal reports).

Until there is an official announcement of Hamilton signing with a team, all one can do is theorize. I suppose we will all have to adopt the Mariners’ sit-back-and-wait strategy to find out where Hamilton goes – at least for now.

Tags: featured, Josh Hamilton, Popular, prospects, Rumors, seattle mariners, Texas Rangers

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Seattle’s Future for the Starting Rotation

Posted on November 17, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

The future of the starting rotation in Seattle looks pretty bright between the dominance of King Felix and the future of the big three, but there are still many conversations to be had on the subject.

First of all, Felix Hernandez should not be traded. The Mariners have a 26 year old Cy Young winner in their grasp, why would they trade him? With the possible exceptions of Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, and Giancarlo Stanton, there is not a better player to build a team around than King Felix, in my opinion. If Seattle is trying to build a winning team, there isn’t a better guy to start with than Hernandez.

Jason Vargas is an interesting case because he is a pitcher who has really benefited from playing in Safeco Field. Take a look at these splits from last year.

	Vargas at Home	Vargas on the Road
ERA	2.74	4.78
FIP	3.61	5.59
WHIP	1.02	1.31
K/BB	3.14	2.18
HR/9	.82	1.97
wOBP	.260	.347
SLG	.327	.495

Vargas leaving the mound after a poor road start. Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

As you can see, Vargas is not a great pitcher when he isn’t in the friendly confines of Safeco Field. With the fences moving in this year, Vargas’ value has diminished even more than before. The deep dimensions of left field and left center have had a direct correlation to Vargas’ success.

Outside of Seattle, he is probably a decent bottom of the rotation starter, but he has become a number two starter with the Mariners because of the stadium. Once the fences are brought in, we may see an instantaneous dip in the lefty’s numbers in the upcoming year, and for this reason, I am hesitant to pencil in Vargas as a starter of the future. He certainly won’t be a top of the rotation guy like he is right now.

Hisashi Iwakuma is another interesting pitcher in Seattle right now. He was brought here last offseason on a one year contract. After spring training, he was put in the bullpen before being promoted to the rotation mid-season where he shined. However, he too had more success in Safeco Field than in other ballparks, although the correlation was not as dramatic as in Vargas’ case. Now that he has a more substantial two-year contract, it appears that the 31 year old will be here for a bit longer. He could be a good middle of the rotation man down the road if he continues to post solid numbers as long as he remains affordable.

Last season, we had two young arms at the bottom of the rotation who struggled in Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi. These two guys had an xFIP of 5.01 and 5.08 respectively. They also posted a .288 and .266 BABIP respectively, so essentially, these guys posted horrible stats even when luck was on their side. What is going to happen when they aren’t getting lucky? Unless extreme strides are made in the coming seasons, I don’t see either of these pitchers being anything more than place holders in the bottom of the rotation until guys from the farm system are developed.

One of the young arms that is commonly overlooked is Erasmo Ramirez. The 22 year old rookie got limited time last year, but he put up better numbers than anyone realizes. As a starter, his 7.85 K/9 was better than any Mariner starter besides Felix. His 1.53 BB/9 was better than any starter besides Beavan, and Ramirez’ FIP and xFIP were both second among Seattle starters behind just King Felix. Let me reiterate that these numbers excluded Ramirez’ relief appearances, so they were only his stats as a starter. I think that Ramirez has earned a spot in the starting rotation next season, and I would much rather see him as the fourth starter over Beavan or Noesi.

There may be a few other starting pitching options currently at the major league level as well. Charlie Furbush has started games during his minor and major league careers and is capable of switching back to the rotation after spending 2012 in the bullpen. Historically, he hasn’t had much success starting games, but don’t rule him out as a possibility in the starting rotation next year.

Although improbable, Tom Wilhelmsen is another name that you may see penciled into the rotation. Many people forget that he was a starter in the minor leagues before moving to the Seattle bullpen. His power style of pitching fits better in the bullpen, but thanks to the diabolical curveball that he developed and the changeup that he refined into a reliable pitch last year, his stuff is beginning to look quite suitable for the rotation. There are a lot of good young arms in the bullpen such as Pryor, Capps, and Luetge, so the organization may feel comfortable enough with the pen to try to reestablish Wilhelmsen as a starting pitcher. I wouldn’t bet on this move, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.

The big 3, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton, are all exciting prospects in the Mariner organization and are currently the number 4, 8, and 74 prospects in all of baseball respectively according to MLB.com. I won’t call Danny Hultzen a “sure thing,” but it seems that Hultzen has already been penciled into the starting rotation of the future. The question becomes just how good the second overall pick will be. He has a very high floor as a prospect, so he should be at least a four or five starter down the road. Hopefully, he will become a top of the rotation arm, and he appears to have the stuff to fit there.

Taijuan Walker is a very different prospect from Hultzen. He is a high risk high reward player. His potential is incredible, but he not nearly as certain to realize his potential as his counterpart. I might compare Walker to Blue Jay starter, Ricky Romero. Like Romero, there is no doubt that Walker has the raw stuff to be a dominant major league pitcher, but it becomes a matter of putting all the pieces together and being successful.

There is a pretty good chance that one of these three guys will be traded at some point for a good bat. If the Mariners are successful in trading for Billy Butler this offseason, it seems almost certainly that one of these prospects will be moved.

Apart from the big 3, there are a few other good pitching prospects in Seattle’s organization. Among these are Brandon Maurer, Jordan Shipers, Tyler Pike, Andrew Carraway, Mauricio Robles, and 17 year old Victor Sanchez.

Considering Seattle has one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and one of the deepest minor league pitching staffs in baseball, it appears that the Mariners will have a very strong starting rotation in the future.

Tags: Danny Hultzen, Erasmo Ramirez, featured, Felix Hernandez, hisashi iwakuma, Jason Vargas, Mariners General, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners, taijuan walker

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Seattle’s Future in the Outfield: Part 2

Posted on November 6, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

Last week I introduced some of the outfielders at the top of the Mariner organization, and this week I will highlight the best outfielding prospects in the lower levels of the farm system.

I will start in AA which has two players declining in their prospects statuses, Johermyn Chavez and Chih-Hsien Chiang. Both of these players started the season on the 40-man roster, but both were removed during the year which seemingly indicated that they are no longer a part of the long-term plans of the Mariners.

Denny Almonte was a second round pick out of high school in 2007 but was has been slowed down by having to repeat both class A and class high A. Random fact: Almonte was selected by then GM, Bill Bavasi, just one spot before the Marlins took a 17 year old outfielder named Mike Stanton. That is correct; we took Almonte instead of Stanton. SIGH. Yet another tear-prying mistake by Bavasi. Back to Almonte, he has struggled with his strikeouts but he has lowered his K% for each of the past three seasons. He also added 6 points to his BB% this year, so he is moving in the right direction. He also brings an interesting combination of power and speed that could translate to the MLB level should he be able to keep moving up the minor league ranks. Time is running thin for the 24 year old, however, so he needs to make a move quick if he wants to get a chance in the big show.

The High Desert Mavericks had much better play from the outfield this past season, but it is always difficult to judge the legitimacy of High A prospects since their power numbers are inflated by the favorable hitting conditions of the California League. Some of the outfielders at that level are Leon Laundry, James Jones, and Julio Morban.

Landry came over from Los Angeles in the Brandon League deal and instantly looked like an impact player after the trade. He doesn’t have a high tendency to strikeout that many young hitters have but he doesn’t walk enough. However, he still hits for a high average and has good speed and defensive ability that could help him stick in a major league outfield. His ridiculously high BABIPs tend to point towards a future drop in the batting average, but he is still an impressive prospect.

At 20 years old, Guillermo Pimentel has been one of the more fascinating prospects over the last few years. When the Dominican native signed with the Mariners as a sixteen year old, Pimentel was one of the top prospects on the international market. However, he has struggled in America. His power from the left side of the plate is undeniable, but his poor strike-zone awareness and tendency to swing and miss have translated into high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

Entering the 2011 season, MLB.com ranked him as the #37 prospect in all of baseball, but after a rough 2011 in rookie ball and a disappointing 2012 in class A, he has dropped all the way down to #20 prospect in just the Mariner organization. Although his rapid decline is discouraging, he still has lots of time. He will be 20 for all of next season, so he still has lots of time before he can be labeled as a bust. If he can improve his contact rate enough to tap into his great power, Pimentel will be well worth the wait and will be a big bat in Seattle’s order for the future.

Gabriel Guerrero is not a prospect whose name you will hear floating around the water cooler very often, but he is a sleeper prospect who I like. He is just 18, and has only played 18 games on this continent, but he has a good build and a solid approach. He played his first 50 games of the year in the Dominican Summer League were he posted a 1.014 OPS. In his hand full of games in rookie ball, he hit .333 and posted a .227 ISO. His respectable 16.3 K% seems to indicate that he will avoid the strikeout problems that have plagued so many other talented young hitters from the Caribbean Islands. The cherry on top of this Sunday is the fact that Gabriel is the nephew of Vladimir Guerrero, so hopefully an all-star bat is in his family genes.

In case you haven’t noticed, the Mariners don’t have a plethora of great outfield prospects, and they certainly don’t have any “sure things” at the position. However, there are a couple of guys that you may see transfer to the outfield from other positions. Among these potential transplants are Stefen Romero, Patrick Kivlehan, Steven Proscia, Francisco Martinez, and Jack Marder. These guys are just the surface of the possibilities of players that could move to the outfield. Let’s be honest, if Mike Carp learned to man left field, I think that just about anyone can. These prospects’ abilities to stick there will depend on their bats.

Tags: Denny Almonte, featured, Gabriel Guerrero, guillermo pimentel, Leon Landry, Mariners General, Minor Leagues, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners

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Seattle’s Future in the Outfield: Part 1

Posted on October 30, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

A while back I started a series on the future of each position for the Mariners. I took a bit of a hiatus from this series, but now I am back to complete it, starting with the Seattle outfield. Because of the high quantity of outfielders in the farm system, I will split the outfielders into two separate articles. The first will feature players that are close to or already in the big leagues, and the follow-up article will look mainly at prospects that are still a ways off.

The traditional post-win celebration in the outfield. Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

The top of the Mariner organization has a bevy of pretty mediocre outfielders. Trayvon Robinson, Eric Thames, Mike Carp, Carlos Peguero, and Casper Wells all fit into the category of “sub-par major leaguers.” Now a few of these guys have shown promise and they all have some good tools, but none of them seem likely to have successful long-term MLB careers.

Trayvon Robinson is a guy that I like personally because he has a fun personality and a great skill set. He’s a switch hitter and brings good speed and can play passable defense in every outfield position. His hard nose approach and infectious smile bring a lot of joy to fans. In addition, he was the author of several spectacular catches last year.

Despite the upside, the main thing holding Robinson back is his tendency to swing and miss. His 74.4 contact% and 12.2 swinging strike% this past season were both noticeably lower than the league average and attributed to his 26.2 K%. His swing from the right side of the plate has a long ways to go as well; he hit just .178 against lefty pitchers during his time in the major leagues.

Eric Thames is like Robinson in many ways. He actually had a worse contact%, swinging strike%, and K% than Trayvon last year. Thames also walked less and is not a good defender. Power potential is what differentiates Thames from Robinson, as he has the ability to hit for power, although his pop is nearly all to his pull side.

If you think Robinson and Thames are bad at making contact, wait till you see Carlos Peguero’s numbers. He posted a

A massive Carlos Peguero swing. Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

49.1 K% and 1.8 BB%. That turns into a .04 BB/K which would have been worse in baseball by 14 points had he had enough at bats to qualify. So basically, whenever Peguero steps to the plate, he has nearly a 50% chance of striking out and just a 1 in 50 chance of drawing a walk. Those aren’t great odds if you ask me. If you want even worse odds, just take a glimpse at his 54% contact rate and 25.5 swinging strike rate. Peguero also swung at half of the pitches outside of the strike zone that were thrown to him this year, which certainly aided the previously mentioned stats.

Despite these glaring problems, Peguero is still a relevant option for the future thanks to his ridiculous power. Even though he can’t make much contact now, he could be just one adjustment away from rising his contact rate just enough to truly tap into his unbelievable strength. I am not ready to just give up on Peguero. I am also not betting on him being able to figure out his swing, but I’m willing to wait a few more years just in case. I could easily stomach a 30 K% from him if he could turn in 30 homeruns which isn’t outside the realm of possibility.

The two guys that seem to be more prone to long-term MLB careers are Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez. Guti’s glove will keep him relevant for a long time regardless of his bat, but if he doesn’t produce at the plate, I think it will be time for the mariners to move on without him. He could probably fetch a decent prospect at the trade deadline if it came time to trade him.

Saunders is an interesting prospect. I’m not too sure what to make of him. Before the 2012 season, he was beginning to look like a bust. However, with this season came new hope for his future. Now that we know that he can make contact enough to utilize his power and speed, he could be a potential 20-20 or 25-25 threat down the road. In many ways, I can see Saunders turning into a player very similar to BJ Upton. I will expand upon this analogy in a later article. If the Mariners need to part with Gutierrez, Saunders could also play center field where his bat projects quite well.

Tacoma was mostly desolate of good outfielders last year besides Carp, Peguero, and Robinson whenever they were sent down. Darren Ford and Mike Wilson are both far past their prime and don’t bring anything of value. Vinnie Catricala is still an interesting option, but his swing seems to be deteriorating as time passes. He is currently hitting just .162 in 37 at bats in the Arizona Fall League. He does, however, have 8 rbis which trails just Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino for the team lead.

Still, things better turn around at the plate in a hurry for the man dubbed “Cat the Bat” or else he will just be “Cat.”

Considering the outfielders at the top of the organization I think that free agents will probably end up playing a key role in the outfield by the time this team is in the playoffs.

Tags: Carlos Peguero, Eric Thames, featured, Mariners General, Michael Saunders, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners, Trayvon Robinson

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The Success of Past Prospects

Posted on October 16, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

Ryan Anderson, Ryan Christianson, Chris Snelling, Antonio Perez, Clint Nageotte, Jose Lopez, Travis Blackley, Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, Phillippe Aumont, Greg Halman, and Adam Moore. I’m guessing that you have heard some of those names, and I’m guessing you have never heard quite a few of those names. Is this just a random list of players? NO. It’s a list of past Seattle Mariner prospects that made Baseball America’s top 100 Prospect list.

That’s right, these names were once thought to be the future stars of the Mariner organization, yet as we know, none of them really worked out. Sure, Lopez had a few good years before dropping off the face of the earth, and a few other guys have bounced around from team to team and from AAA to the majors for years, but none of them have actually had good major league careers.

As fans, we often look at promising young players and simply expect them to fulfill their potential. I know that I am quite guilty of this. In some of my past articles, I have discussed prospects as if they were sure things, while in reality they are a long ways from being major league caliber players.

In this article, I am going to look at the prospects that we have in our system that have made the 2012 Baseball America top 100 prospects list, and then give a list of past prospects of the same position that have been at similar ranks on past Baseball America lists. This will hopefully put in perspective just how unreliable prospects truly are.

I admit, this is not a perfect analysis of how likely our current prospects are to make the majors, but it will still give a broad comparison to past players that you can use.

The Mariners to make the 2012 list were Jesus Montero (6th), Taijuan Walker (20th), Danny Hultzen (21st), James Paxton (52nd), and Nick Franklin (77th).

Jesus Montero (6^th)

We know that Jesus has already made the majors, but that doesn’t mean that he will have long-term success there. Here is a list of catchers who cracked the top 20 from 2010 to 2000.

Buster Posey (2010, 2009)
Carlos Santana (2010)
Matt Wieters (2009, 2008)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2006)
Joe Mauer (2005, 2004, 2003, 2002)
Victor Martinez (2003)

As you can see from this list, not many catchers have been ranked in the top 20, but the ones that have made it that high have experienced success. That’s pretty encouraging for the future of Jesus.

Taijuan Walker (20^th)

I will include all right-handed prospects that ranked from 15^th to 30^th.

Jeremy Hellickson (2010)
Casey Kelly (2010)
Kyle Drabek (2010)
Jacob Turner (2010)
Rick Porcello (2009, 2008)
Chris Tillman (2009) Note: The Mariners sent Tillman along with Adam Jones to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard Trade.

Jerrod Parker (2009)
Wade Davis (2008)
Nick Adenhart (2008) Note: Adenhart was tragically killed in a car crash after just four major league appearances.

Adam Miller (2008, 2007, 2005)
Yovani Gallardo (2007)
Mike Pelfrey (2007)
Matt Garza (2007)
Bobby Jenks (2006)
Chad Billingsley (2005)
Jeff Niemann (2005)
Jose Capellan (2005)
Edwin Jackson (2005)
Dustin McGowan (2004)
Gavin Floyd (2004)
Chin-Hui Tsao (2004, 2001)
Angel Guzman (2004)
Ervin Santana (2004)
King Felix. Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Felix Hernandez (2004)
Jeremy Bonderman (2003)
Adam Wainwright (2003)
John VanBenschoten (2003)
Rafael Soriano (2003, 2002)
Rich Harden (2003)
Dennis Tankersley (2002)
Nick Neugebauer (2002)
Jerome Williams (2002, 2001)
Jon Rauch (2002)
Jake Peavy (2002)
Boof Bonser (2002)
Juan Cruz (2001)
Bobby Bradley (2001)
Donny Bridges (2001)
Matt Belisle (2001)
Kurt Ainsworth (2001)
Josh Becket (2000)
A.J. Burnett (2000)
Brad Penny (2000)
Tony Armas (2000)
Ramon Ortiz (2000)
Francisco Cordero (2000)

This is a very large and diverse list of pitchers. Some of these guys, such as Gallardo, King Felix, and Wainwright are some of the best pitchers in baseball. On the other hand, some of these guys never did anything in a major league uniform. Most of them, however, have had decent major league stints which is encouraging.

Danny Hultzen (21^st)

Here are all of the lefty pitchers from 2010 to 2000 that ranged from 15^th to 30^th on the Baseball America list.

Martin Perez (2010)
Aroldis Chapman (2010)
Tyler Matzek (2010)
Multiple exposure image of Clayton Kershaw. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Brian Matusz (2009)
Jake McGee (2008)
Gio Gonzalez (2008)
Clayton Kershaw (2007)
Franklin Morales (2007)
Jon Lester (2006)
Jeff Francis (2005)
Mike Hinckley (2005)
Cole Hamels (2004)
Sean Burnett (2003)
Cliff Lee (2003)
Carlos Hernandez (2002)
Ty Howington (2002)
Chris George (2001)
Matt Riley (2000)
Wilfredo Rodriguez (2000) Note: Wilfredo may be the coolest name ever.

Wow, that is a very strange list. Nearly all of these guys fall into one of two categories: 1) stud 2) total bust. Honestly though, can anyone say that they have heard a baseball player with a cooler name than Wilfredo? If you have, please put it in the comment section below.

James Paxton (52^nd)

All lefty pitchers that have placed between 45^th and 60^th on the Baseball America lists will be included in this list.

Casey Crosby (2010)
John Danks. Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Ross Detwiler (2008)
Donald Veal (2007)
Chuck Lofgren (2007)
John Danks (2007, 2006, 2005)
Troy Patton (2007)
Jonathan Sanchez (2007)
Adam Loewen (2006)
Jeremy Sowers (2006)
Scott Elbert (2006)
Justin Jones (2004)
Mike Hinckley (2004)
Andy Sisco (2003)
Mike Gosling (2003)
Mario Ramos (2002)
Jimmy Gobble (2002)
Mark Phillips (2002)
Joe Torres (2001)
Wilfredo Rodriguez (2001)
Mike Bynum (2001)
Ed Yarnall (2001)
C.C. Sabathia (2001)

Well that list of players is downright disturbing, if not devastating. If you can honestly say that you have heard of over half of the names on this list, then I am impressed. Besides Sabathia who has had a great career, John Danks and Jonathan Sanchez who have had their ups and downs, and Wilfredo Rodriguez who has the best name in baseball history, there aren’t many bright spots on that list. This is not to say that James Paxton won’t be a good pitcher, but history certainly doesn’t seem to be in his favor.

Nick Franklin (77^th)

I will include both shortstops and second baseman in this list, since it is unclear where Franklin will end up. All prospects that were place from 70^th to 85^th on past prospect rankings will be included in this list.

Jiovanni Mier (2010)
Adrian Cardenas (2009, 2008)
Reid Brignac (2009)
Jed Lowrie (2008)

Note: Carlos Triunfel was ranked 89^th on the 2009 list and 62^nd on the 2008 list.

Alberto Callaspo (2007, 2004)

Note: Current Pirates second baseman, Neil Walker was placed at 74^th on the 2007 rankings, but he was listed as a third baseman. He was also listed as 81^st in 2005, but his position was catcher that year.

Orlando Hudson who, like Nick Franklin, is a switch hitter. Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Dustin Pedroia (2006)
Cliff Pennington (2006)
Joaquin Arias (2005)
Brandon Wood (2005)
Jose Lopez (2004)
Chase Utley (2003)
Jake Gautreau (2002)
Orlando Hudson (2002)
Luis Montanez (2001)
Marcus Giles (2000)
Adam Everett (2000)

Note: Carlos Guillen was ranked 73^rd on the 2000 list, but was posted as a 3^rd baseman. However, Guillen played every infield position throughout his career.

This list has a couple studs scattered across a sea of busts. A lot of these middle infielders that didn’t work out never really made the majors, but since Franklin is already knocking on the door, that’s seems to bode well for him avoiding the same fate.

Mike Zunino

Mike Zunino was not a Mariner when the 2012 top prospect list was released by Baseball America, but MLB.com released an updated top prospect list in which Zunino ranked 44^th. Therefore, I will list past catching prospects that ranked from 35^th to 50^th on Baseball America lists.

Derek Norris (2010)
J.P. Arencibia. Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

Jason Castro (2010)
Jesus Montero (2009)
J.P. Arencibia (2009)
Jeff Clement (2008)
Geovany Soto (2008)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2007)
Russell Martin (2006)
Neil Walker (2006)
Brian McCann (2005)
Dioner Navarro (2004)
Guillermo Quiroz (2004) Note: Quiroz was in the Mariner organization, but not on the 40-man roster, until being traded for cash in September.
Jeff Mathis (2003)
Josh Phelps (2002)
J.R. House (2002)
Joe Buck (2002)
Ben Patrick (2000)
Matt LeCroy (2000)
Jayson Werth (2000) Note: This IS the same Jayson Werth that is now a star outfielder for the Nationals.
Steve Lomasney (2000)

The recent prospect to made this list have experienced quite a bit of success while the members of older lists struggled more. Hopefully this trend will benefit Zunino.

My purpose for this article was not to discourage your hope in our future, but to simply give some perspective of just how unpredictable these young prospects can be. As fans, we need to make sure we aren’t counting our eggs before they hatch and basing our future on kids that may or may not work out.

Tags: Danny Hultzen, featured, james paxton, Jesus Montero, Mariners General, Mike Zunino, nick franklin, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners, taijuan walker

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Off-Season Story Lines

Posted on October 4, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

Well we have officially hit the offseason, so it’s time to start worrying about offseason stuff. Here are a few story lines to keep track of during the baseball-barren months of winter.

Bringing in a Bat

This has been discussed in depth by just about every Mariner blogger in the world, but the Mariners need some offense and there will be good options on the free agent market and available for trades. The name I think would be best for Seattle is Billy Butler, but there will be a lot more power hitter talks in the future.

Chone Figgins

According to a report by MLB Trade Rumors, Figgins wants out of Seattle. He also stated that he, “can’t take two more years of this.” Oh, the irony. The first thing I said when I saw this was, “well, I can’t take two more years of you.” I don’t believe that the 9 million dollar benchwarmer is needed much in Seattle, so I hope that Jack Z can find a way to appease all of Seattle by ridding the city of Figgins’ presence.

Another funny thing about the situation is that this is probably the best opportunity he will find these days. I can’t imagine that there is a team that would sign him to a major league contract, so if he leaves Seattle, he will probably find himself in AAA.

Resigning Free Agents

There are a couple of current Mariners whose contracts have expired. The most notable of these are Hisashi Iwakuma, Oliver Perez, and Miguel Olivo.

Iwakuma looked very good in the starting role this season, and will likely require more than his current 1.5 million dollar contract to stay in Seattle. At 31 years old, the Japanese pitcher probably has a few more good years in him and would be a nice middle of the rotation piece over the next couple years until the big 3 can take his place.

Oliver Perez went into the year as just another minor league pitcher at the end of his career, but he finished the year as a dependable lefty specialist out of the bullpen. He accumulated just 29.2 innings of work in 33 appearances, but he posted an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.25. His 2.93 FIP was impressive as well, and proves that he has some value going forward. Between lefties like Furbush and Leutge, there may be no need for Perez in the pen this year, however. It will be interesting to see if Seattle pursues him.

I assume that Olivo will not be back in Seattle next year. The Mariners have a pretty solid catching situation right now between Jaso and Montero and Zunino on the way. Olivo doesn’t bring much to the table anyways. His BB% is 2.2 and his K% 26.3 which comes out to a .08 BB/K. Let that number sink in for a few seconds. I actually laughed when I read that considering he probably won’t be our problem anymore. In addition, towards the end of his Mariner career, he platooned against lefties, but Jesus Montero’s average against lefties was about 100 points higher than Olivo’s.

Finding a New Hitting Coach

Today, Chris Chambliss was fired as hitting coach in Seattle. He was here for two years, but the team OPS was .665 and .640 in those two seasons. There haven’t been many bright spots in the Mariner offense in the last two years. Ackley had a miserable sophomore season, Smoak has been a disaster all the time except during Septembers, Brendan Ryan has looked lost in the batters’ box, and the list of offensive frustrations extends forever. The Mariners will need to fill the role soon, and hopefully the new man will help turn around the offense.

Tags: Billy Butler, featured, hisashi iwakuma, Mariners General, miguel olivo, Oliver Perez, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects

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Seattle’s Future at Third Base

Posted on September 30, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

In my shortstop article, I said that the shortstop position has the best minor league depth of any spot in the field. However, the more I think about Seattle’s minor league options at third base, the more I am convinced that third base truly has the most depth. The hot corner may also be the most secure position going into next year as well.

Due to Kyle Seager’s sophomore surge, he has a solidified job in Seattle’s order for next year, but that doesn’t mean that he is the third baseman of the future. There is a chance that he won’t repeat this year’s performance in the future, or that he will be traded. In addition, Seager’s versatility could also lead to him moving to second base or shortstop depending on how the pieces fall.

Catricala after hitting a spring training homerun. Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Alex Liddi is a good young option at third base. As I discussed in my first base article, Liddi can hit, but his inability to make consistent contact is disturbing. If he can resolve that, he could be a good major league hitter.

A guy that I have spoken highly of in the past is Vinnie Catricala. “Cat the Bat” has a beautiful line drive swing and the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields and hit for power as well. Unfortunately, his 1.052 OPS from AA in 2011 dwindled down to .640 this year in AAA. His prospect status decreased as well, and at twenty-three years old, he doesn’t have a ton of time to make the majors. While his poor 2012 campaign doesn’t mean that we should rule him out of the future of Seattle, it certainly is disappointing. If he has a good spring training, however, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Seattle next year. Catricala has versatility, so he may be better suited in the corner outfield, but he could still be a decent guy at third base should he be needed there.

While he’s not usually thought of as a third baseman, Nick Franklin could also find himself at the hot corner. I’m not sure if he will hit for enough power to project well there, but if his glove isn’t enough for the middle infield, he could be thrown in at third.

Stefen Romero is a name that has recently begun to pop onto the radar of Mariner fans. The twenty-three year old was in just his second full year in the professional ranks this year, and he thrived. After hitting the cover off the ball in class high A High Desert, he was promoted to AA Jackson where his production improved. In 56 AA games, he posted a triple slash of .347/.392/.620 which adds up to a 1.012, and he also hit 12 bombs. While his low walk rate is a problem, it’s excusable after seeing his 178 wRC+. Some people think he will end up at second base, but personally I tend to think that his 6’3” 225 pound body is built for third base. Hopefully Romero will be in AAA next year, and if he can produce, he may have a chance to be a September call-up.

While Romero has been a great surprise, his AA teammate, Francisco Martinez, has been a great disappointment. Martinez was a main piece in the Doug Fister trade last season and became one of Seattle’s top prospects with his arrival in the organization. This season, he hit just .227 with a .295 SLG% and a 21.1K%. His lack of power and good speed will likely force him into the outfield, but he is currently listed as a third baseman. Some people think he will have a chance at second base, but I don’t believe his glove is good enough to stay in the middle infield. He just turned 22 years old, so he will have time to figure out his swing, but this year was a setback for Martinez, and with the kind of depth Seattle has at third base in its farm system, a bad year could be enough to write him out of the future.

Class High A also had a pair of 22 year-old power hitting third basemen in Steven Proscia and Mario Martinez. They both put up huge numbers in the California League this year, but they also shared the problem of a K% close to 20% and BB% below 5%. While the pure power stats were impressive, it’s hard to determine how much their numbers were inflated by High Desert. Regardless, these guys need to refine their plate approaches and learn to make more contact before they are MLB options.

Everett’s third baseman this year, Patrick Kivlehan, is yet another name to remember in the future. Kivlehan has also had a crazy journey to where he is now. He began as a safety on the Rutgers University football team before switching to baseball in his senior year. In his only year of collegiate baseball, he became the first player to ever win the Big East Conference Triple Crown and also earned conference MVP honors.

The Mariners snatched him in the fourth round which was a selection that many believe to be Seattle’s biggest steal in the draft. In a full year in short season Everett, he had a line of .301/.373/.511 before being named as a Northwest League all-star and Northwest League MVP. In the last calendar year, he went from a college football player to Northwest League MVP. It’s an unlikely story, but Kivlehan continues to progress at a rapid rate. He has learned to hit very quickly and there’s no reason to think that he will stop anytime soon. Keep an eye on this converted football player, because he could be in Seattle before you know it. He will probably make the switch to outfield, however.

The last player in the legion of minor league third baseman I will cover is Joe DeCarlo who was a second round pick in the most recent draft. He was taken out of high school and just turned nineteen years old, so he has a lot of learning to do. In rookie ball this year, he had a 13.9% BB%. That is very impressive from a teenager, because pitch selection is not usually something that young power hitters possess. His mature pitch selection is a good sign and also differentiates him from other power hitters at the hot corner.

Tags: alex liddi, featured, Joe DeCarlo, kyle seager, Mariners General, Patrick Kivlehan, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, Stefen Romero, Vinnie Catricala

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Seattle’s Future at Shortstop

Posted on September 26, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

The typical reaction to a Brendan Ryan at bat. Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

The shortstop situation in Seattle is quite bizarre. We have the best defensive shortstop in baseball right now, yet the majority of fans would like to see him go due to the fact that he can’t hit. It’s true, Brendan Ryan is a miserable hitter right now, but I don’t think that that means we should just get rid of him as soon as we can.

I believe that Seattle has taken good defensive shortstops for granted in recent years. The Seattle pitching staff has been blessed him Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson, who were two of the best defensive shortstop of the decade, play shortstop for the last few seasons. People don’t realize how important having that stud up the middle is until it’s gone. Just remember what it was like having Yuniesky Betancourt’s disastrous glove. I don’t want that.

My point is that we shouldn’t just throw away Brendan Ryan simply because he doesn’t have a great bat. Ryan should get the job out of spring training next year. If he can raise his average up to a semi-respectable .240, I see no reason to try to move him. His glove is too valuable. In a few years when this team is challenging for a playoff spot, Brendan Ryan’s glove is the kind of tool that makes a good team great.

At the same time, if Ryan continues to display Mendoza line production, the Mariners will have to start looking elsewhere. In this scenario, there are lots of good options in the farm system.

With the exception of starting pitching, the shortstop position has more farm system depth than any other spot.

Carlos Truinfel has been a prospect in this organization since 2007 when he was 17. He was considered an organizational top 10 prospect from 2007 to 2010 and was a MLB top 100 prospect in 2008 and 2009. Unfortunately, his bat has never been impactful above class high A. His frequent strikeouts and poor BB% have plagued him as well. At this point, he is no longer the heir to the throne due to the draft of Nick Franklin and Brad Miller.

These two new players are now the guys who are expected to be the future at shortstop, specifically Nick Franklin. While Franklin has been the front runner at shortstop and is currently the 29^th best prospect in baseball, I encouraged fans to pay attention to Miller in my 2^nd base article, and I will use the same argument here.

Here is a comparison between Franklin and Miller during their time in AA Jackson in 2012.

	PA	HR	R	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG%	wOBA	wRC+
Franklin	239	4	25	10.0	15.9	.322	.394	.502	.413	155
Miller	170	4	21	12.9	15.3	.320	.406	.476	.409	152

Pretty similar huh?

As I discussed in the 2^nd base article, 2012 draft picks, Chris Taylor and Timothy Lopes have both moved swiftly through the farm system in their first years in professional baseball. Taylor has the glove to project pretty well at shortstop, while Lopes may be forced to stay at second.

Another name that has been tossed around on Mariner top prospect lists is Martin Peguero. Unfortunately, the 18 year old has spent his first two years in rookie ball and has little to show for it. In the Appellation League this year, he posted a triple slash of .231/.269/.294. Ouch.

If you ask me, if we want an 18 year old shortstop from the DR with no power and no ability to draw walks, then we should look at Ketel Marte. Who? Ketel Marte. That name is rarely used, but he spent this year in Everett and put up numbers very similar to the ones Peguero posted in rookie ball. Only a month separates these two international talents, but Marte is a bit more developed than Peguero.

I have little hope for either of these players in the long run, but if you are a Martin Peguero fanatic, I would recommend you start paying attention to Ketel Marte, because he is a nearly identical player who has progressed faster.

Although 2012 2^nd round draft pick Joe DeCarlo is listed as a shortstop on the AZL Mariners roster, he has little hope of sticking at short, so he is more relevant at third base than shortstop. If by some miracle he can trim down his 5’10” 205 pound frame, get quicker, and improve his glove, he would be an option at short. I don’t see that happening however.

Tags: Brad Miller, brendan ryan, featured, Ketel Marte, Mariners General, Martin Peguero, nick franklin, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects

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Seattle’s Future at Second Base

Posted on September 21, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

The next position I will analyze for the future is second base. While it seems like Ackley is the obvious second baseman of the future, it is important to look at other second base options in case Ackley’s slump becomes permanent or he is moved to first base or the outfield.

Some of the organization’s second basemen include Munenori Kawasaki, Kyle Seager, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Christopher Taylor, and Timothy Lopes.

Kawasaki does not have a place in Seattle’s future other than that of dugout dance and possible Mariner Moose. On the other hand, Seager has certainly proved that he belongs in the starting lineup every day, so he would be a good option to replace Ackley should he be needed there.

As for prospects, Franklin should be knocking on the door of the MLB within the next year. While normally a shortstop, he could find himself at second or third base depending on how he matures defensively and how the Mariners decide to address Brendan Ryan. Considering the hype surrounding Franklin and the offensive up-side he has demonstrated, he needs to get his shot in the MLB. It will simply come down to which infield position Wedge decides to play him at.

Brad Miller as an infielder at Clemson. Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Brad Miller is another option, and he is a player that I am very fascinated by. Miller and Franklin have taken very different routes to get to similar spots. Unlike Franklin who was drafted out of high school, Miller played at Clemson before becoming a second round pick in the 2011 draft. As a result, this is Miller’s first full year in professional baseball while this is Franklin’s third year despite the fact that Miller is a year older than his counterpart. Regardless, Miller has dominated minor league pitching during his stints in class A Clinton, class high A High Desert, and class AA Jackson.

Here is a comparison between Franklin and Miller during their time in AA Jackson in 2012.

	PA	HR	R	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG%	wOBA	wRC+
Franklin	239	4	25	10.0	15.9	.322	.394	.502	.413	155
Miller	170	4	21	12.9	15.3	.320	.406	.476	.409	152

It would also be helpful to point out that Miller had an AB/HR rate of 36.75 during his stint while Franklin’s was 51.25.

I’m not necessarily saying that Miller is the same level of prospect that Franklin is, but there are certainly similarities in their plate production. Don’t rule out Miller just because he’s not the top shortstop in the farm system, because he might just force himself into the Major leagues weather that means he plays somewhere in the middle infield or he gets traded.

If you are skeptical of Miller, just remember Kyle Seager’s ride to the majors. He started the 2011 season in AA as an afterthought due to Alex Liddi’s prospect status. Seager earned a AAA call-up after a few months and proceeded to hit .387 and post a 1.029 OPS in his 24 game stint in Tacoma before being sent to Seattle in mid- July. The rest is history. To summarize this analogy: Teams like Seattle can’t afford to ignore big time minor league production so don’t sleep on Brad Miller.

Chris Taylor and Timothy Lopes, who were the fifth and sixth round picks in this draft respectively, are both guys who have progressed quickly in their first year of professional baseball. In Class Low A Everett, Taylor posted at .430 OBP over a 37 game span and walked more than he struck out before being moved up to Class A Clinton. There he hit .304 in 53 plate appearances.

Lopes, who was drafted out of high school, began in rookie ball, shined, and earned the distinction of Seattle’s 17^th best prospect by MLB.com. He spent the last couple of games in High A High Desert.

Taylor is 22 and Lopes is 18, so Taylor won’t have nearly the leash that Lopes does, but both players have quite a ways to go before they are knocking on the MLB door, but they are names to remember.

There is a pretty good chance that Ackley adjust to the pitching and break his sophomore slump, and none of these guys will ever be asked to play second base in Seattle. That’s what I’m hoping for.

Tags: Brad Miller, Chris Taylor, dustin ackley, featured, Mariners General, nick franklin, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, Timothy Lopes

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Seattle’s Future at First Bast

Posted on September 18, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

If you had asked me two years ago, I wouldn’t have hesitated to tell you that Justin Smoak would be the Mariner’s all-star first baseman by 2013. It’s unbelievable how things change, isn’t it?

The man that was supposedly a future all-star first baseman has done absolutely nothing in a Mariner uniform. He even whiffed his way into AAA this year. Smoak’s struggles have created a vacancy at first base as well.

So, who is the first baseman of the future?

Call me crazy, but I think Smoak deserves a little more time. Not much time, but a little. Essentially, I think that he gets Spring Training and a few months of next year to prove that he is a better option than anyone else. There is simply too much potential and too much value in him to give up on him now. Switch hitting first baseman with plus gloves don’t come around very often. Smoak knows that his career is on the line, and he might be able to make a few adjustments and pull a move like Michael Saunders did this spring.

A lot of people, including myself, had given up on Saunders, but he has turned in a solid season. I think that we should give Smoak an opportunity to turn around his career in a similar way.

In all likelihood, Smoak will not figure out how to hit over the course of an offseason which means that it will be time to look for better answers. There are a few options from within the organization including Mike Carp, Alex Liddi, Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley, Luis Antonio Jimenez, Vinnie Catricala, Rich Poythress, and Taylor Ard.

I’m not sure what we can expect from Carp. Following an impressive 2011 campaign, Carp has hardly produced and has been constantly bogged down by injuries.

Liddi, who is just 24 years old, has flashed power in his stints in Seattll. Through 144 professional at bats, Liddi has 6

Liddi and Montero. Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

homeruns which averages out to a homerun every 24 at bats. That’s not fantastic, but that should give you a 20-25 homerun season with a starting job. Liddi’s real problem is his strikeouts. While his plate selection and ability to make contact have improved with experience, he still has a contact% of 69.2% and K% of 36.8 in limited time with the big club in 2012.

As soon as Mike Zunino is a catcher, there is a decent chance that Jesus Montero will no longer be given catching duties. When this happens, he will have to either move to DH or first base. Montero could be a good fit at first considering that his bat will profile well there.

Dustin Ackley is another potential first baseman who is already in the system. I would prefer to see Ackley at second since his bat doesn’t provide enough pop to be a good offensive first baseman. Nevertheless, he is a solid last resort.

At the ripe age of 30, Luis Antonio Jimenez could also receive consideration for the MLB job. After demolishing AAA pitching this year, he earned a place on the 40-man roster and a September call-up. Sure, his glove isn’t anything to write home about, but his bat speed and natural power is impressive. I believe that his ability to hit for power is similar to that of Carlos Peguero. The difference between the two players is that Jimenez can actually put the ball in play. Jimenez’ 18.1% K% in AAA isn’t great, but it’s acceptable if you can get good power production in return, and his ISO in AAA was not a big step down from Peguero. The 30 year-old also had a higher OBP and wRC+ than the Peguero. Jimenez becoming the first baseman for the Mariners is certainly a long shot, but it’s also an idea to keep in the back of your mind.

At this time last year, I was convinced that Vinnie Catricala would be a starter on the Mariners in 2013 or 2014, but his 2012 campaign in AAA saw his batting average and OBP drop around 120 points and his SLG% nearly get cut in half from his 60 game stint in AA the previous year. Even worse, his wRC+ went from 184 in AA to 65 in AAA. This drop off is certainly discouraging, but he certainly should not be given up on yet. If “Cat the Bat” can create an assemblance to his 2011 minor league season, he will be a legitimate option at first base in Seattle. He could also play at third base, left field, or right field as well. Last spring training, Catricala challenged for a MLB roster spot, so perhaps he will do the same this year.

Rich Poythress and Taylor Ard were both high level draft picks that play first base as well. Both of them are a ways from being major league caliber hitters, but they are still names to remember in the long run.

Seattle could also look outside of the organization for a first baseman. There are several options which have been discussed in several different articles on this blog, but some of those names are Billy Butler, Ike Davis, Nick Swisher, or Justin Morneau. I am not hugely in favor of dumping lots of money or prospects on anyone right now, but Billy Butler and Ike Davis, who are 26 and 25 years old respectively, could be good trade acquisitions for the right price.

As JJ said in this article, he expected that acquireing Butler would take, “LHP James Paxton, OF/3B Vinnie Catricala or SS Brad Miller, and Erasmo Ramirez and/or Stephen Pryor for Butler and a reliever/AAA throw in.” I’m not willing to give up that much, especially since Butler will end up being a DH. If there was a way to avoid trading Paxton, I would be in, but I don’t think that that is possible.

Tags: alex liddi, Billy Butler, featured, Jesus Montero, justin smoak, Luis Antonio Jimenez, Mariners General, Mike Carp, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners

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Seattle’s Future at Catcher

Posted on September 15, 2012 by SoDo Mojo

The Mariners are officially out of the playoff hunt, so now that I can stop focusing on this year, I am going to start focusing on the future.

Over the next few days and weeks, I am going to take a look at the future of each position for the Mariners. When I use the term “future,” I am searching for a franchise player who will take over the position and stay for some time. To start my series of articles, I will go behind the dish.

The current catchers on roster are Miguel Olivo, John Jaso, and Jesus Montero. Olivo will likely leave Seattle after the season and Jaso and Montero will remain.

Montero has done a better job than I expected him to when the season began, but he still isn’t going to be a catcher in the

Jesus Montero doing catcher drills. Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

long term. His bat, defense, and value all point towards a career at first base or DH.

Jaso has also had a break out year, but I don’t see him being a guy that will be behind the dish 130 games a year for the next decade.

In the minor leagues, the Mariners have guys including

Brandon Bantz, Jesus Sucre, Ralph Henriquez, Jack Marder, John Hicks, Steven Baron, Mike Zunino, Marcus Littlewood, and Tyler Marlette.

Out of these names, the most likely guy to be a big league catcher is certainly the third overall pick in the 2012 draft, Mike Zunino. The Florida product has steamrolled pitching in A- and AA in his first two months of professional baseball. Before being promoted to AA Jackson, Zunino posted a 1.210 OPS in 29 games at A- Everett.

In Jackson, his production has hardly faltered. After 15 games, he boasts a line of .333/.386/.588 and also three homeruns and four doubles. These stats do not include his astounding performance in the AA playoffs. Zunino is certainly the catcher of the future for the Mariners, the question is when he will be ready to start everyday in Seattle.

Considering the rate that Zunino has accelerated through the farm system, I believe that it is realistic to expect to see him in the MLB next year. If he has a great spring training, Zunino could find himself on the opening day roster, although that would be a bit of a stretch. At the latest, Zunino should be a September call-up in 2013.

Assuming that the Florida product is the long-term solution for catcher that Mariners are searching for, the biggest problem is who will fill the catcher role for the Mariners until Zunino gets there. The John Jaso/Jesus Montero combination should do an adequate job of filling this void until Zunino is capable of replacing them.

As for other options in the minor leagues, none of the other names have a ceiling that is even on the same level as Zunino. Although not quite the same as Zunino, Jack Marder is another good catching prospect the organization. In High Desert this year, he hit .360 with a 1.008 OPS. High Desert teammate, John Hicks, had 49 extra base hits in 121 games. While it’s true that nearly everyone hits well in the California League, don’t entirely write off their performances. Both of those guys could get a look in the MLB if by some disaster Zunino is hit by a meteor or by a plane and is unable to play.

I would bet on Mike Zunino being Seattle’s everyday catcher for a long time, but keep the other names in mind just in case.

Tags: featured, Jack Marder, Jesus Montero, John Hicks, John Jaso, Mariners General, Mike Zunino, Popular, Prospect Reports, prospects, seattle mariners

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