Projection
3 Under the Radar Prospects for 2013
As we begin the 2013 Mariners season there is more focus on our minor league system than ever, names like Zunino, Walker, Hultzen and Paxton are commonly known. The quality of the major league team may play a role in this, but quite simply, the M’s have a lot of good prospects. And while I could write an article on any of our main prospects, plenty has already been written about them. Instead I will focus on three prospects who have not garnered as much attention but could very easily impact the big league roster in 2014 and even 2013, if everything breaks the right way. There are obvious reasons that these guys aren’t known as well, two are relievers and one is a catcher who’s last name isn’t Zunino. But these three are names that Mariners fans should keep in the back of their heads. Now, without further ado, I give you the three Mariners Minor League Breakout Players in 2013. Carson Smith, John Hicks, Bobby LaFromboise.
Carson Smith RHP AA Jackson
The first thing that made Smith pop up on my radar was his performance in the Arizona Fall League last year. He pitched in 15 innings and struck out 18 batters, only walking 4. That is very impressive, regardless of the level of competition in the AFL. The second thing that makes Smith stand out is that he actually pitched well in A+ High Desert, a stadium that would make Brendan Ryan look like Troy Tulowitzki. What makes Smith a really intriguing prospect is that he throws a hard sinker in the low-to-mid 90’s that can be both a strikeout pitch and generates a large number of groundballs. So while he does not throw 100 MPH like Capps or Pryor, he gets better movement on his fastball and has a very good slider. What could limit his effectiveness is a history of shoulder issues stemming from his pitching motion, which puts a lot of stress on his arm. However, if Smith stays healthy I see him competing for a bullpen spot as early as next year.
John Hicks C AA Jackson
A lot of attention has been paid to Mike Zunino as the catcher of the future in Seattle, and rightfully so. But do not look past Hicks as a potential backup for Zunino or at first base. Hicks hit very well in High Desert last year, but most players hit the ball well there. His results against AA pitching will be something to monitor after being drafted in 2011 and showing a strong bat in A and A+ ball. What I like about Hicks is that he has good contact skills and gap power, combined with decent plate discipline. This may not be the sexy, Zunino-esque line that fans may want to see, but Hicks definitely projects to be an effective hitter at the higher levels. He also stole 22 bases last year in High Desert so he isn’t as maddeningly slow as Jesus Montero. I doubt Hicks will see an aggressive promotion schedule with Zunino and Jesus Sucre ahead of him in Tacoma, but if (when) Zunino gets called up, Hicks will be the first in line to fill his spot.
Bobby LaFromboise LHP Tacoma
When I first saw LaFromboise pitch I was really confused. His motion was a mix of Charlie Furbush but his stuff was closer to Lucas Luetge’s. What LaFromboise profiles, as is a deceptive lefty who can hit the low 90’s but uses his offs peed stuff to great effect. He has struggled with his command, due to his side arm motion that creates a lot of movement on his fastball. After putting up a 1.01 ERA in Jackson after 20 games, LaFromboise moved up to Tacoma where he put up similar numbers. Another bullpen arm, I thought LaFromboise had a chance this spring to challenge Luetge or Furbush for a spot in the bullpen. However, he is down in Tacoma to start the year and I fully expect him to be a lights out reliever after posting 38 K’s in 39 innings there last year. If one of the LHP’s in the bullpen gets hurt or starts to struggle, LaFromboise should be on the short list of potential call-ups. If not, he should see time in the bullpen in September when rosters expand.
Those are the three names all Mariners fans should remember going into this baseball season. Out of the three LaFromboise is the most likely to make an impact on the MLB squad this year, but Carson Smith has the highest ceiling out of the three. Hicks looks to be an above-average backup catcher or even corner outfield/ first base. It is almost a guarantee that a new prospect is going to show up on the scene and cause even more excitement in our minor league system, and I think it will be one of these three players who see huge gains in 2013.
Tags: Bobby LaFromboise, Carson Smith, John Hicks, Mariners General, Projection, Prospect Reports, prospects
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Somewhat Bold Predictions for the Mariners in 2013
Tomorrow is opening day for the Mariners, and you should be PUMPED! The team is undeniably moving in the right direction. This year will be another step forward for Seattle, and they may even surprise some people. I don’t usually like giving super bold predictions, so here is a quick list of somewhat bold predictions I am making for the Mariners this year.
Brendan Ryan hits .270
Ryan has simplified his swing for 2013. Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan literally didn’t hit his own weight in 2012, but that’s not how it has always been. In his first full season in the major leagues, Ryan hit .292 with a .332 BABIP. Sure, the BABIP is a bit high, but it certainly is no indication of a future .194 hitter like he was in 2012. One of the big differences between the Ryan of 2012 and previous years was that he had no luck getting hits from ground balls. His average on line drives was also low which indicates a bit of unluckiness which is supported by his measly .244 BABIP over the season. Common logic tells us that his average will rise back to the mid .200’s. In theory, his adjusted hitting mechanics will cut down on his strikeout rate which has climbed for each of the last two seasons, and his removed bone spur should help him as well. Once you take all these things into consideration, a .270 average from Ryan seems possible.
Blake Beavan doesn’t last the full season in the rotation
If you read my last article, you know that I don’t think much of Blake Beavan. When I look at him, I see a pitcher who pitches to contact but doesn’t know how to get groundballs and doesn’t know how to avoid barrels. His stuff isn’t good enough to bail him out when he makes mistakes, and he tends to make a lot of mistakes. With Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton all sitting in AAA close to being prepared to pitch in Seattle, I don’t see the Mariners giving Beavan a whole lot of slack this season.
The Mariners are within 4 games of division lead in September
This somewhat bold prediction is derived from a gut feeling more than anything else. My main support for this ascertain is a simple, “why not?” The Mariners are a solid team that, with a little extra production, could win 85 games this year, and the division probably doesn’t have a team good enough to run away with the AL West crown unless the Angels’ rotation over performs. Saying that the Mariners will win the division is a bit too bold for me, but saying that they will be the hunt down the stretch is just somewhat bold enough for my liking.
Michael Saunders has a 25/25 year
Last year, Saunders hit 19 homeruns and stole 21 bases. In 2013, he will likely get more at bats and will probably have much better protection in the batting order. Assuming that he continues to progress as a player, a 25/25 year for Saunders would be a bit surprising but certainly not unrealistic.
King Felix wins his second Cy Young award
Again, why not? There is no doubt that Felix Hernandez has good enough stuff to win the Cy Young, and this year his numbers should get a little help from the games he will pitch against the Astros instead of the Angels. The improved offense should provide a few more wins which will give him some extra votes. Seattle’s stellar defense should also help his case. Even with the fences moving in, Safeco won’t be easy on batters and Felix’ numbers outside of Safeco have never been much worse than at home. In fact, he has allowed more homeruns at home than on the road in several different seasons. The dimensions shouldn’t have a significant impact of the King.
Franklin Gutierrez gets traded
The pieces match up for a trade like this happening. It’s his last year under contract, the Mariners could use to dump his salary, he doesn’t seem to be in the organization’s future, and he could fetch a decent return. It’s a perfect situation for Seattle. It’s not often that a gold glove caliber centerfielder gets traded, but if it is going to happen this summer, it will probably happen to Guti.
Mike Zunino makes his major league debut before the all star break
Zunino is spring training. Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Zunino has thrived in every level of competition he has seen thus far. He will start 2013 on the doorstep of the major leagues, and with nothing more than a defensively inept catcher standing between him and a major league starting job, it doesn’t seem like he’ll have to wait very long to get his major league debut. Prior to the all star break may be a bit optimistic, but it is doable. His ETA will also vary based upon a few other players.
Smoak has a .800 OPS
It seems a bit unrealistic, doesn’t it? Let me lay out a scenario for you. Justin Smoak will replicate his typical walk rate of about 10% while finally posting a somewhat respectable BABIP. With a tad bit of luck, his OBP should sit around .350 in this scenario. In order to achieve his .800 OPS he will need to slug .450. This is a stretch for Smoak, but we know he has made some changes at the plate. If his Spring Training is any indication of his future, a .450 slugging percentage could just barely be in reach. He hit as many doubles in spring training as he did in five months in 2012. If Chris Johnson can reach a .450 SLG%, Smoak should be able to.
The team ERA drops
Considering that Hector Noesi won’t be pitching every five days in 2013, this somewhat bold prediction looks pretty good. I prefer Joe Saunders to Jason Vargas and I think Iwakuma will improve in his sophomore year. With some added experience in the bullpen, the team ERA is prone to drop in 2013.
The season attendance reaches 2,500,000 fans
The club has received a minor facelift, the ballpark has seen some remodeling, the promotions are stellar, and the weather appears to be wonderful; there is no reason why 2,500,000 fans shouldn’t enter Safeco Field for the first time since 2007. Get out and watch some games!
Happy baseball season!
Tags: Blake Beavan, brendan ryan, featured, Felix Hernandez, franklin gutierrez, justin smoak, Mariners General, Michael Saunders, Mike Zunino, Popular, Previews, Projection, seattle mariners
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Seattle Mariner 25-Man Roster Projection
Now that spring training has begun, I thought it would be fun to put on my Eric Wedge hat and mustache and speculate a bit on what the 25-man roster will look like for Seattle when they break spring training camp.
My projected opening day roster is: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Tom Wilhelmsen, Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, Lucas Luetge, Charlie Furbush, Hector Noesi, Jesus Montero, Kelly Shoppach, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Dustin Ackley, Brendan Ryan, Kyle Seager, Robert Andino, Alex Liddi, Michael Morse, Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, Raul Ibanez, and Casper Wells.
Now that I have given my roster, I will explain what led me to this conclusion. I will try to be somewhat systematic in my explanation.
I’ll start with what we can safely assume. Players that seem to be locks on the roster are:
Hernandez (Starting Pitcher), Iwakuma (Starting Pitcher), Saunders (Starting Pitcher), Wilhelmsen (Relief Pitcher), Montero (Catcher/Designated Hitter), Morales (First Base/Designated Hitter), Ackley (Second Base), Ryan (Shortstop), Seager (Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop), Morse (Left Field/First Base/Designated Hitter), Gutierrez (Centerfield), Saunders (Outfield)
With those twelve players who appear to be sure things for the roster, there remain 13 open spots. Let’s look at what we have and what we need. When you see ½ in the following graph, it designates a player that is capable of filling a role but will probably not play there in significant amounts.
|
How many we have so far |
How many more we need |
Remaining Options |
|
|
Starting Pitchers |
3 |
2 |
Ramirez, Beavan, Noesi, Hultzen, Maurer, Bonderman, Garland |
|
Relief Pitchers |
1 |
5-6 |
Capps, Pryor, Luetge, Furbush, Perez, Kinney, Ruffin |
|
Catchers |
1 |
1 |
Shoppach, Paulino, Zunino |
|
Corner Infielders |
2 1/2 |
1-2 |
Smoak, Carp, Liddi, Catricala, Jacobs, Romero |
|
Middle Infielders |
2 1/2 |
1-2 |
Andino, Truinfel, Franklin, Miller, Romero |
|
Outfielders |
3 |
1-2 |
Bay, Ibanez, Wells, Thames, Peguero, Romero, Catricala |
Erasmo Ramirez. Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
The rotation will absolutely need two more starters. Considering his solid 2012 season, I expect Erasmo Ramirez to be the number four starter. His 3.55 FIP is deserving of a chance in the rotation, and the current lack of depth in the rotation provides the perfect opportunity for him.
The fifth starting spot could be available to a rookie like Hultzen, a veteran like Bonderman or Garland, or a guy like Beavan or Noesi that saw rotation time last season. I tend to think that Beavan will end up with the final rotation spot. There is no need to rush Hultzen and it seems unlikely that Bonderman or Garland will have incredible success after not playing for two and one and a half seasons respectively. Beavan has some major league experience and had some good stretches last year, although his inability to get swings and misses is very troublesome.
The Mariners will certainly need a second catcher in the dugout to help Montero with the backstop duties. Although I love Zunino, I don’t think he should be rushed to the big leagues, so I would prefer to see either Shoppach or Paulino fill that role. I don’t particularly like either player, but here is a look at some of their numbers over the past three years.
|
AB/HR |
K% |
Contact % |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
UZR |
WAR |
|
|
Shoppach |
25 |
34.9% |
62.5% |
.202 |
.294 |
.371 |
85 |
4.3 |
2.9 |
|
Paulino |
101 |
14.9% |
84.1% |
.262 |
.307 |
.348 |
76 |
-3.0 |
1.2 |
Neither player is very convincing, but the good news is that they are both better Miguel Olivo. I tend to side with Shoppach, simply because he plays better defense and creates more runs, but I am very nervous about his poor plate discipline and constant swinging and missing. I hope that neither player becomes a fixture in the Seattle lineup.
With these three additions, there are now only ten spots left on my roster and the bullpen currently only has one member. The pen will need at least four more members, but past experience has told us that only five relievers will be too few. I will shoot to add five or six more relievers to accompany Tom Wilhelmsen. Capps, Pryor, Luetge, and Furbush seem like safe options and provide a good variety of arms and can create good matchups. For now, the last spot in the pen comes down to Perez, Kinney, or a starter who will be used in long relief.
We already have two lefties, so Perez is not needed. I would much rather have Kinney available than a long reliever like Noesi, but if a starter only lasts three innings, the bullpen has no one that can eat up innings to save arms. That is a huge problem and can lead to an ineffective bullpen in following games. However, this issue can be remedied by the addition of a sixth starter. Noesi seems like the best option, considering that the sixth starter role is not suitable for a prospect like Hultzen. Garland may give Noesi good competition, but I have even less confidence in Garland than Noesi.
Raul Ibanez as a Yankee in 2012. Credit: Noah K. Murray/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports
After completing the bullpen, there remain just five spots left on the opening day roster. One of these will go to Raul Ibanez. He is an excellent locker room presence and can hit for some power despite his old age. Another spot will go to Robert Andino who can play every infield position except first base, which doesn’t need much help anyways. He can also serve as a pinch runner. I like to think of Andino as a better version of Kawasaki.
With just three spots left, the outfield appears to need some help. Saunders, Gutierrez, Morse, and Ibanez are the outfielders on the roster so far, but Gutierrez has constant injury bugs and Morse and Ibanez are both defensive liabilities. The best options for the fifth spot in the outfield are Thames, Wells, and Bay. I actually liked the Bay acquisition, but the layout of the roster hurts his chances of making the opening day team. He would be yet another poor defensive outfielder. Instead, I would pick Wells who can hit lefties well, like Bay, and also play solid defense in all three outfield positions.
Two spots left on the 25 man roster. Justin Smoak has been an overall disappointment with spurts of greatness over the past three seasons in Seattle. The old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Well, shame on me. I’ve been fooled several times by Smoak, and I’m ready to give him one more chance. His torrid September gave me a little spark of hope, and I would like to see what he can do in the first few months of the season.
We are down to the last roster spot. The outfield is set and there is no need to bring in a third catcher, so the 25th spot is between a reliever and another infielder. As much as I would like to have Josh Kinney in Seattle, I think there is a greater need for another infielder. Looking at the current roster, there are only four players that can play 2nd, 3rd, or shortstop: Ackley, Ryan, Seager, and Andino. We need one more guy. I think Alex Liddi is the best bet. He can play third well and also has a bit of experience at both middle infield positions. He could also play third and allow Seager to play short or 2nd if Ackley or Ryan gets injured. Having Liddi gives plenty of options for infield alignment. Carlos Triunfel would be a decent alternative to Liddi, but Alex swings a much better bat, so I give the final spot to him.
That is my projected 25-man roster and the rationale behind it. It will be interesting to see how it matches up to the roster Wedge leaves Spring Training with. I would love to hear your feedback.
Tags: 2013 Season, featured, Mariners General, Popular, Projection, seattle mariners, spring training
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Vegas Odds and the Mariners
http://www.sports-betting-insights.com/images/Sportsbook2.jpg
If you want to look at your team’s chances of winning, sometimes the best place to go is Vegas. After all, Sports Books wouldn’t still be around if they got it wrong all the time. I have listed all the MLB teams below with their odds against to win the 2013 World Series (yes, you can already bet on that).* To interpret odds against in this format, think about it this way: If you were to bet $100 on a team, and that team won the 2013 World Series, you would win the amount shown under Odds Against (plus your bet). That 700 for the Tigers really just means 7-to-1 odds.
|
So there’s Seattle down at 8000. A one-dollar bet on the M’s would net you 80 bucks if they won the whole thing. A one-dollar bet on the Angels, though, would only net you 7 bucks. In the third column, “Pay Probs,” I’ve included the break-even probability. In other words, if a team’s true probability of winning the WS is actually greater than the break-even probability, then it’s a smart bet.
So how does Vegas make money? I’m glad you asked. If you add up all those break-even probabilities, you get 139.7%. Those “pay probabilities” can’t be true probabilities because they’d have to add up to 100%, and so the casino is essentially stealing the other 39.7%. Pro-rating the probabilities correctly gives us the fourth column, with each implied true probability noticeably lower than the implied break-even probability.
Vegas sets the initial odds, but then routinely adjusts those odds based on how people are betting. If no one seems to be betting the Mariners, for example, they’ll make the payouts higher until people see it as a “good bet.” Thus the true probabilities—scaled from the Vegas odds—are functions of both Vegas’ computer nerds, and the masses of bettors. Basically it’s an adjusted Wisdom of the Crowd. As of right now, Vegas and the bettors have combined to give Seattle less than a 1-in-100 chance to win the 2013 WS. But you have to believe that M’s chances are better than 1-in-80 before you start betting. Tricky!
*According to sportsbook.ag on February 6th, 2013.
Tags: featured, Popular, Projection, seattle mariners, vegas odds
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
6 man rotation
I know the idea of going with a six man rotation scares a lot of people off. Every team wishes they could have a solid core of five guys that they can run out there on a consistent basis. This is the ideal situation that is proven to be the most successful way of dealing with your clubs starting rotation. With that being said, the Mariners will need to seriously consider going to a six man rotation when Danny Hultzen gets called up.
As of right now our rotation looks like: Felix, Vargas, Noesi, Ramirez and Millwood. When Hultzen gets called up it should be the end of the road for Millwood. It was obvious from the first day they signed him that he was a placeholder until one of our younger pitchers were ready. Hultzen is very close to being ready and many people think he could be successful in the majors right now. The Mariners want to get him some starts in Triple A before them give him the call but most are projecting that he will be called up near the end of July. This means that Millwood has exactly one month to impress other teams who are looking to add veteran pitching as they make their playoff push.
Seattle Mariners pitcher Charlie Furbush (41) pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at the Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE
This is where Charlie Furbush comes into play. He has been flat out nasty in the relief role this year. He has thrown 31.1 innings with a 2.01 ERA. He has struck out 39 batters while only walking 5. He was given a chance to be a starter last year, but that did not end up well because he was giving up home runs at an alarming rate. Furbush looks like he has fixed some of the command issues that caused him to give up those home runs last year. He has only given up two home runs while being forced to pitch in some high pressure situations. He deserves a chance to try and start again because of his performance so far this year. He has the potential to be a very good back end starter. The best part about giving him a chance to start is that if it does not work and he struggles again, they can put him back in his current role where he can continue to be successful.
The six man rotation would have to be implemented if they did try and start Furbush. There is nobody in our future rotation that includes Hultzen that you could replace. Your not going to send down Ramirez, Hultzen or Noesi. So that would leave Furbush as our sixth starter. This is a strategy that could be very beneficial for the Mariners for a couple reasons.
First, it will keep the innings down for Felix. We are clearly not going to be in contention and having him pitch a full load does not make sense. You could still let him throw 110 pitches every outing, but he will be getting an extra day of rest before each start and that could really help limit the wear and tear on his arm. Same can be said for Vargas. It is well known that he has struggled mightily after the all star break the last two years. Limiting him might help his production and increase his value to other organizations.
The rest of our rotation would be made up of young guns. Ramirez, Hultzen and Noesi are all young and it would benefit them to get the extra rest while they learn the ropes of being a major league starting pitcher. We do not want to rush these guys into throwing too many innings to early. They need to develop and get prepared for the bright years they have to come. Going with the six man rotation might be unconventional, but it would benefit the Mariners as they try to figure out who can do what on our current roster.
Tags: Mariners General, Projection, prospects
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Potential for Greatness
This year the Seattle Mariners are going to be one of the most frustrating teams to follow throughout the summer because of their expected inconsistencies. We are one of the youngest teams in the league and when that’s the case you can expect some … [visit site to read more]
Tags: Front Office, Mariners General, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
A nerd, a computer, and the Playoffs
Tags: computer simulation, featured, Mariners General, Playoff Thoughts, playoffs, Popular, Projection, seattle mariners
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Projection Systems Part II – The Pitching
Last week, I looked at how the computers liked—or rather, didn’t like—the M’s offense. But how about those pitchers? Again, we look to Marcel to forecast the … [visit site to read more]
Tags: AL West, featured, Felix Hernandez, Mariners General, Popular, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Fun with April’s Numbers
With April ending a few days ago, I thought it would be fun to take project out a few April stat lines and see how those stats would look after a full season. Have a look:
- Ichiro is on pace for 217 hits (surprised? you shouldn’t be) … [visit site to read more]
Tags: Brandon League, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, Jack Cust, Michael Pineda, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Playing With The Line-up Card: Random Ichiro! Thought
It’s been argued here and there about Ichiro and his ability to possibly hit third. It’s been brought up more recently with having a new manager in Eric Wedge. But usually you can read an article written about it somewhere at the beginning of each year and Seattle Sports Insider talked it up last year about this time with the signing of Chone Figgins. Larry Stone of the Seattle times wrote an article on just a little over a week ago about Ichiro hitting third and Geoff Baker, Stone’s counter part, briefly mentioned it during this year’s winter meetings. (*Wave*, Hi Geoff)
I’ve generally not weighed into topics like these because ultimately there is no winner, the likelihood that it ever happens is so small, regardless of the evidence presented, and it generally turns sour because someone takes something personally. It’s just one of those arguments that doesn’t provide much merit in discussing it.
But with those thoughts in mind while playing with Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis I noticed something and just wanted to point it out. Ichiro is batting lead-off in 8 out of the 30 “top” run simulations, 5 times while hitting 3rd and 13 times hitting 5th including three of the very best possible projection. You may or may not have noticed this as well.
The Lineup Analysis tool suggests that the following line-up would be the produce the greatest results.
Obviously this initially is a little odd to think about. But after doing some research, or rather reading much smarter peoples research, you see that in line-up construction the best lead off hitter is the guy with the highest OBP and the your #2 guy should traditionally have a high OBP too.
While this goes against the traditional belief of having a quick guy that can “cause problems on-base” as your lead-off man it’s not completely crazy. Look over at New York and the Yankees really have been doing it for years with Derek Jeter.
There is a very interesting article on Lineup Analysis tool and Lineup construction over at SBN’s Beyond the Boxscore. Which is a great read as well as fangraphs has a couple of pretty good examples of what other teams line-ups could look like if they were “optimized”.
Ultimately, this isn’t to say that Ichiro is best as a leadoff hitter, the three hole hitter, or even as the #5 guy. Just an opportunity to point out that the way we think of traditional line-ups may or may not be 100% correct.
I personally wouldn’t mind seeing the Mariners experiment with a line-up like the one shown above. What’s the worst that could happen, they loose 100 games? But, considering it realistically it’s not something that is going to be proved or disproved over a small sample size so experimenting with it would just as likely just stir up strife and controversy as it would logical discussion.
Tags: brendan ryan, Chone Figgins, franklin gutierrez, Ichiro, Jack Cust, Jack Wilson, justin smoak, Line-up, Mariners General, Michael Saunders, miguel olivo, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
Mariners: Line-up Projections And Runs
Using the following line-up and Bill James projections (With the exception of Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak, whom I choose to use Fangraphs Fans projections for instead due to their lack of MLB experience) I used Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis to get some idea of how the Mariners line-up projects in scoring runs.
I don’t think many people would argue too much with this line-up. Yes, you could flip flop Ryan with Kennedy and while Kennedy is going to have a higher on-base percentage, Ryan is the better defender. It’s pure semantics. Ultimately with the guys in camp your not going to squeeze too much more out of the roster.
| Name | OBP | SLG |
| Ichiro | .361 | .391 |
| Figgins | .360 | .348 |
| Gutierrez | .323 | .401 |
| Cust | .377 | .428 |
| Smoak | .351 | .414 |
| Olivo | .284 | .420 |
| Saunders | .327 | .417 |
| Ryan | .308 | .337 |
| Ja.Wilson | .305 | .355 |
This comes out to a grand total of about 4.585 runs per game or 742.77 over 162 games. That’s 240 more runs than last year. That’s pretty significant.
This of course forced my hand to do a rough estimation of last year using 2010′s every day players. I took rough semblance of a 2010 line-up card that was used last year and using the previous years projections I just used their over all production.
| 2010 | OBP | SLG |
| Ichiro | .359 | .394 |
| Figgins | .340 | .306 |
| Branyan | .323 | .487 |
| Lopez | .270 | .339 |
| Sweeney | .321 | .444 |
| Gutierrez | .303 | .363 |
| Jo.Wilson | .278 | .294 |
| Moore | .230 | .283 |
| Saunders | .295 | .367 |
This came out to a grand total of 3.755 runs per game or 608.31 over 162 games. With how horrible of a line-up that was used it still projected them almost 100 runs than what they produced last year (513).
That alone should give you a small clue that this team just completely sucked. They failed at everything and in just about every opportunity. That’s not normal and it’s not because of Ken Griffey jr, Jack Zduriencik, Don Wakamatsu or even Chuck Armstrong. It was just a pure and absolute chaos mixed with a bit of anarchy.
One day a study is going to be done on this and how things just fell apart and used as an example of Murphey’s law. Everything that could go wrong last year just about did.
This isn’t an opportunity to just rehash last year. But really a chance to look at the fact there isn’t a lot of changes that need to happen. In fact the Mariners look to be replacing 4 of those hitters and hope to see Saunders improve to such a degree it’s like getting a new hitters.
Obviously this isn’t a precise measurement. But, had the Mariners scored 743 runs last year it would rank 13th in the majors, 9th in the AL and 2nd in the AL West.
I’m not saying the Mariners will win the west or that they even have a shot (15% chance if you believe PECOTA). But the Rangers aren’t a complete team and neither are the Athletics. The Angels, are looking old and I’m not sure they aren’t going to just implode and come in last.
Should starting pitching hold-up (i.e. Bedard/Pineda pitch, and do it well) and the line-up score runs. This season could get really interesting, really quick. Do I expect them too? Absloutely not. But, that’s the wonderful thing about hope and spring training. Right?
Additional Note: this just is a general production statistic. It doesn’t account for many factors, such as injuries, base running, ect. Take the projection with a grain of salt.
Tags: adam kennedy, brendan ryan, Chone Figgins, franklin gutierrez, Ichiro, Jack Cust, Jack Wilson, Josh Wilson, justin smoak, Mariners General, Michael Saunders, miguel olivo, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »
The Percentile And Erik Bedard
Erik Bedard, ahhh yes. Here we are there again. Debating over the usefulness of what could be one of the more talented pitchers in baseball. We tell ourselves “I’ll believe it, when I see it”. Then we are suddenly clutching to hope once more as reports surface that he has completed “multiple bullpen sessions”. Now, we’re right back to square one.
Erik Bedard Healthy Once More?
We get this feeling, similarly to when you see that crazy, hot ex-girlfriend that seemingly gets it all together. Only to find out after a couple of wasted months that she’s still hot and still extremely crazy.
It’s a similar situation to that of last year where we were trying to convince ourselves if only Bedard came back by May and was able to pitch the rest of the season… maybe, just maybe we could really give this a shot.
But the truth that relegates back to this year is regardless of how long Bedard pitches for the overall amount of production that he brings to this team is nearly as great as that of a Bonderman or Millwood. This is why it’s so easy to become intrigued with Bedard. This its why we get so excited at the possibility of him pitching behind Felix for a whole season.
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 66 | 3.55 | 1.0 | $7.8 | 1.6 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | S | 179 | 4.58 | 1.0 | $9.7 | 2.0 |
| Kevin Millwood | S | 202 | 4.63 | 1.0 | $10.4 | 2.2 |
Looking at the length of time he does pitch gives us an idea of how much success he will bring to the team based on the level of production. You can use Fangraph fans, Bill James, Marcel, ZiPS and there are others out there as a projection system available. I choose to use Marcel (simply because it had him projected with the highest ERA) but to each his own.
What this projection sheet shows is how many wins based on length and production Bedard could possibly add to the Mariners over a league average player (aka Luke French or David Pauley).
Then I took it a step further, since there is both the chance that Bedard could over as well as under produce, based off the Marcel projection, I incorporated that into the spreadsheet too.
So, beyond the jump is Erik Bedard, projected innings pitched, projected era and his WAR categorized by percentile. Enjoy!
Erik Bedard at the 120% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73.
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 200 | 4.5 | 1 | $0.40 | 2.5 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 150 | 4.5 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.9 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 100 | 4.5 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.3 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 50 | 4.5 | 1 | $0.40 | 0.6 |
Erik Bedard at the 110% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 200 | 4.1 | 1 | $0.40 | 3.4 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 150 | 4.1 | 1 | $0.40 | 2.6 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 100 | 4.1 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.7 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 50 | 4.1 | 1 | $0.40 | 0.9 |
Erik Bedard at the 100% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 74
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 200 | 3.7 | 1 | $0.40 | 4.4 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 150 | 3.7 | 1 | $0.40 | 3.3 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 100 | 3.7 | 1 | $0.40 | 2.2 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 50 | 3.7 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.1 |
Erik Bedard at the 90% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 75
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 200 | 3.3 | 1 | $0.40 | 5.4 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 150 | 3.3 | 1 | $0.40 | 4.1 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 100 | 3.3 | 1 | $0.40 | 2.7 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 50 | 3.3 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.4 |
Erik Bedard at the 80% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 72 – 77
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | LEV | FA $ | WAR |
| Erik Bedard | S | 200 | 3 | 1 | $0.40 | 6.5 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 150 | 3 | 1 | $0.40 | 4.9 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 100 | 3 | 1 | $0.40 | 3.3 |
| Erik Bedard | S | 50 | 3 | 1 | $0.40 | 1.6 |
An Erik Bedard who pitches 50 innings at only 80% bedard capcity should still be worth nearly 1 win over 100% David Pauley pitching the same 50 innings. Regardless of how you feel about Erik Bedard that should at least give a tiny bit of hope that the Mariners could potentially pull out a .500 season. YAY, hope springs eternal!
As a side note I based Mariners win totals off my Mariners roster projection you can find here. This isn’t to spit in Keiths’ eye, as we have nearly identical projections, rather it’s just to give you the information behind the projection.
Tags: erik bedard, Jeremy Bonderman, kevin millwood, Mariners General, Projection
Posted in: Mariners | No Comments »