Off-Season
Mariners Replace Vargas with…Vargas?
Hidden underneath the Felix Hernandez hullabaloo, one might not have noticed that the Mariners signed lefty Joe Saunders to a one-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $6M, possibly with an option for 2014. Without knowing the specifics of the contract, this is still a deal I was hoping the M’s would make.
Back in November, I wrote about the importance of improving the current staff before the Big Three are ready. I was hoping for a number 2 starter to bump everyone down a slot in the rotation, and then the team went in the opposite direction, trading away Jason Vargas. That left us here:
1) Felix
2) Iwakuma
3) Ramirez
4) Beavan
5) Noesi? Furbush? Hultzen?
Counting on any more than zero WAR from Noesi, et. al. would have been somewhat optimistic, considering Noesi lit up the leaderboards for -0.7 fWAR last season, Furbush hasn’t started in more than a year, and Hultzen gave up a walk rate of 14% in the high minors last season. The addition of Saunders to the rotation adds an expected 2-ish wins for the M’s this season because he is effectively replacing a steaming pile of manure—from a baseball perspective, anyway.
Getting to know Saunders a little better basically requires that you remember that guy mentioned up there named Vargas. Check out the similarities over the last three seasons:
William Perlman/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports
| Stat | Vargas | Saunders |
| ERA |
3.96 |
4.07 |
| xFIP- |
109 |
110 |
| K% |
15.2% |
13.4% |
| BB% |
6.6% |
6.8% |
| K/BB |
2.3 |
2.0 |
| Flyball% |
43.7% |
35.8% |
| FB Velocity |
87.3 |
90 |
| WAR |
5.2 |
5.2 |
Saunders throws a little harder, though neither throws fireballs, and he gives up fewer fly balls. Vargas had a slightly better K/BB ratio, and edged Saunders in ERA and park-adjusted xFIP. In the end, both contributed equal amounts of WAR to his team. But we have to remember that Vargas was playing in a ballpark practically built for him. While WAR does account for ballparks to a certain extent, it’s not tailored to adjust for individual players. Vargas had a special relationship with SafeCo that should have made his wife jealous. Even if we account for moving in the fences, Saunders can probably still expect to get extra value out of the marine air, solid outfield defense, and whatever other voodoo is at work in SafeCo.
And hey, if the salary reports are true, Saunders will cost less than Vargas this season. So it’s kind of like we got a cost-controlled Kendrys Morales, along with a cheaper Jason Vargas, for Jason Vargas. If you can’t tell, I really like this signing.
Tags: featured, Jason Vargas, joe saunders, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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Kings Cost More
I find the Felix extension—if it’s true—an interesting case study in how a particular team’s situation can make potentially make a difference in both how negotiations are conducted and how fans perceive the result. But before I get into that, let’s get right to the data. Below I have the King’s year-by-year values to this point—taking the average of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR. The last column is his approximate free-agent value over that time.
|
Year |
WAR |
Value |
|
2006 |
2.5 |
$9.1 |
|
2007 |
3.9 |
$15.3 |
|
2008 |
3.7 |
$15.2 |
|
2009 |
6.2 |
$26.8 |
|
2010 |
6.4 |
$29.0 |
|
2011 |
4.3 |
$20.5 |
|
2012 |
5.4 |
$26.8 |
|
Total |
32.3 |
$142.7 |
Here, I have attempted to estimate some reasonable boundaries for how he will perform going forward. In the favorable outcome, I have also allowed for 7% inflation. In the less favorable outcome—including an injury shortened year in an arbitrarily chosen 2016—I only accounted for 5% inflation. I hope this gives us some reasonable boundaries for the expected value of his contract. Notice that I’m considering this a 7-year contract for $175M because for all intents and purposes, that’s what it is.
|
Year |
WAR |
Value |
WAR |
Value |
|
|
2013 |
5.5 |
$30.3 |
5.5 |
$30.3 |
|
|
2014 |
5.5 |
$32.4 |
5.0 |
$28.9 |
|
|
2015 |
5.5 |
$34.6 |
4.5 |
$27.3 |
|
|
2016 |
5.0 |
$33.7 |
2.5 |
$15.9 |
|
|
2017 |
4.5 |
$32.4 |
3.5 |
$23.4 |
|
|
2018 |
4.0 |
$30.9 |
3.0 |
$21.1 |
|
|
2019 |
3.5 |
$28.9 |
2.5 |
$18.4 |
|
|
Total |
33.5 |
$223.1 |
26.5 |
$165.2 |
I would consider the left option to be a little optimistic. Though our King is only 26 years old, he has already logged 7+ seasons of more than 1600 innings. His arm’s age is probably a little older than his birth date would imply. The outcome on the right might be a little pessimistic, but perhaps better accounts for injury and lost value. But if we look at these boundaries—which are admittedly guesses at best—the contract doesn’t look all that bad.
Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
There’s one major issue, though, that I haven’t discussed. Hernandez signed* this contract for what we believe to be $175M two years before free agency. There is currently no competition for his services. He said he wants to stay in Seattle, and the front office said they want him to stay in Seattle. Hernandez and his agent, Alan Nero, shouldn’t have had any leverage in the negotiations. Except they obviously did. Felix is getting free-agent money and free-agent length during a time when there’s no free-agenty competition for his services.
Last off-season, Matt Cain signed an extension one year before free agency. Cain, 27 at the time with 7+ seasons of wear and tear, got six years for $127M—$21M per season—with a vesting option for the seventh year. Vesting options aren’t quite as team-friendly as team options, but still team-friendly for sure. Cain is probably only slightly less valuable than Hernandez. In fact, Hernandez’s top B-R comparable is Cain. Over the last five seasons, Cain’s ERA in his pitcher-friendly ballpark has been 3.09. Hernandez’s in his pitcher-friendly park, 2.92. It’s hard to measure Cain by fWAR because he defies it, but bWAR suggests Cain is worth about one less win per season. That, perhaps justifies his $21M-per-year contract (with vesting option) to Felix’s $25M-per-year contract (with extra year). Or maybe both contracts—being the largest of their kind—simply represent the high end, and they’re both bad deals for the team.
In the end, the contract is not awful, and I’m as glad as you that the King’s court will be in session every fifth night in Seattle for a long time. It just hurts a little that we couldn’t get a more team-friendly deal. Maybe one that doesn’t use up 30% of the team’s payroll until my hair goes grey. It seems like the fans’ decade of suffering might have given Nero the leverage he needed to strike a player-friendly deal. But I quibble…
*Pending
Tags: Extension, featured, Felix Hernandez, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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10 Things for Seattle Mariners Fans to Do While Waiting for Spring Training
Mar 19, 2012; Peoria, AZ, USA; Members of the Peoria Stadium grounds crew work to prep the field for the spring training game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Ah, the wait for Spring Training to start, when we can begin to speculate about how the Seattle Mariners will do this season…why does it always seem like an eternity? If you’re like me, and you’re getting antsy for some baseball action, here are some suggestions for activities to do while you’re waiting for Spring Training – and ultimately the baseball season – to kick into gear.
- Check out Shipwrecked: A People’s History of the Seattle Mariners by Jon Wells. This book was written for Mariners fans who are interested in reading some of the more anecdotal stories about the Mariners’ history. Just think, you might pick up something you didn’t know about the Ms before.
- Get outside and throw a baseball. If you’re having severe baseball withdrawal symptoms, you may even want to grab a few of your friends and play a game of pick-up baseball over at the park.
- Out of Left Field: How the Mariners Made Baseball Fly in Seattleby Art Thiel is another book worth reading. This is particularly true if you’re interested in how the team has gotten to where it is today.
- Watch a DVD of the greatest moments in Mariners’ history. This can fill the void…but only for so long. It’s great in a pinch, though, if you need to see some Mariners action.
- Catch up on your blog reading. In addition to reading SoDo Mojo, you can check out some of the other blogs around FanSided. I know, it’s hard to imagine there are other sports outside baseball, but there are!
- Watch some college baseball games. College baseball opens next month. The guys are training now. I’ll be following what the Michigan State Spartans are doing over on Spartan Avenue. You may want to check out what the U Washington Huskies are doing.
- Check out some of the world baseball games. Australia has baseball. The Winter Leagues are mostly over, but you may be able to catch replays on the MLB network. The Caribbean Series will run from February 1-7.
- If you live in Seattle, be a tourist in your own city – if not, learn something about Seattle. Seattle has a lot of cool things going on beyond grunge music, EMP, the Space Needle, and Safeco Field. Get out there and explore a little bit. If you enjoy beer, why not visit Pyramid Alehouse or Pike Place Brewery? If you enjoy art, visit the Asian Art Museum. If you like music, get out there and see a live show or two.
- Determine which games you will see and get your tickets. Sure, you can wait until that day when you think “I want to go check out the Mariners today.” There is something to be said about spontaneity. But if you know you’ll have a weekend off in advance, why not go ahead and get your tickets. Don’t forget about the Minor League teams. Going to one of their games can be just as fun.
- Learn something new that’s not baseball-related. As hard as it is to believe, there are other things out there. Learn how to cook, fly a kite, speak Klingon – whatever you are interested in. Not only can you pick up a good skill but you can kick booty playing Trivial Pursuit or impress your friends at your next night out.
What are you doing while waiting for Spring Training to begin?
Tags: featured, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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Potential Trades for Starting Pitchers
Beavan after allowing a homerun. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Even though we are just a few weeks away from the long awaited beginning of spring training, there are still lots of potential moves to be made by the Mariners.
Seattle needs to make some moves in the starting rotation. At the current moment, the third starter in the rotation has a 4.79 xFIP in his career, the fourth starter has just 59 innings in the major leagues,
Noesi getting pulled after a rough outing last year. Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
and the fifth starter had the second worst WAR and second worst xFIP in baseball last year among pitchers who completed 100 innings.
For the record, I think Erasmo Ramirez will be a solid starter down the road, but that doesn’t change the fact the rotation I just described isn’t going to foster much success, especially since it won’t receive an incredible amount of run support.
The rotation needs some help. There are plenty of arms that Seattle could trade for with relative ease. Let’s start with the Los Angeles Dodgers which is a team that essentially has eight suitable starting pitchers. Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly will all probably be available through trade.
Capuano posted a 2.1 WAR last year in almost 200 innings of work and posted a 3.95 FIP. Harang posted a 1.5 WAR. Although Lilly’s 2012 season was plagued with injury, he posted a sub 4 FIP in his 8 starts, and it appears that he will be in full health by spring training. Any of these three players should be available and could serve as solid middle of the rotation starters in Seattle.
Last week, I corresponded on twitter with a couple of acquaintances that are Dodger fans, and they both estimated that a deal for Harang would take something along the lines of Mike Carp/Eric Thames and a decent pitching prospect like Jordan Shippers. Capuano would probably take a little more in return and Lilly may take a little less. If that is an accurate representation of what LA wants in return, it could be a good deal for Seattle. The Mariner organization has a plethora of subpar corner outfielders that would not be missed.
The bigger issue with one of these deals is contracts. Each of these players is locked into a substantial and overpriced contract. In 2012, Lilly will make 12 million, while Harang will receive 14 million over the next two seasons, and Capuano will get 12 million in ’13 and ’14. In theory, Seattle would get some financial help from LA if they acquired Lilly or even Harang, but if that isn’t possible, Capuano would probably be the only of the three pitchers that would be worth their salaries to Seattle.
Recent rumors have surfaced concerning Capuano that included losing Franklin Gutierrez. Considering the questions concerning Gutierrez’ health and ability, along with the fact that he has an unfavorable contract, this would be a good opportunity to receive a nice piece in return for a player with questionable value.
Fiers pitching last August. Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
If a deal can’t be made with the Dodgers, Milwaukee may have an arm Seattle could be interested in with Mike Fiers. Most Seattle fans probably haven’t heard this name, but he appears to be a solid major league pitcher after one season. Last year, the 27 year-old threw 127.2 innings and posted a 3.09 FIP and 3.0 WAR. He averaged over a strikeout per inning in his first pro season along with a reasonable 2.54 BB/9. In addition, his .309 BABIP indicates that his numbers were not a fluke.
Milwaukee may not be willing to part with Fiers considering they too are short on starting pitching, but if Fiers is available, he should also be somewhat affordable in a trade. I wouldn’t expect any of our top prospects to be involved in a deal.
Jose Quintana is the last arm that I will highlight as a possible target for Seattle. The 24 year-old from Chicago would be the only lefty in Seattle’s starting rotation. There is nothing phenomenal about Quintana. He doesn’t strike out lots batters and he doesn’t have phenomenal control, but he’s a solid pitcher who got close to a 50% ground ball rate and nearly a 2 WAR in 2012. His skill set fits Seattle’s stellar defensive infield well and he would be a much needed lefty in the back of the rotation.
It is apparent that Seattle’s rotation needs help in the upcoming season, and these were just a few of the several possible trade targets. Keep an open for a deal, because its reasonable that Jack Z will make some sort of a move for a back of the rotation starter before pitchers and catcher report in Arizona.
Tags: Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, featured, Jose Quintana, Mariners General, Mike Fiers, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners, ted lilly, trades
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The Value of OBP and Slugging
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
It is often said that a team with little power needs to go get it. As in, get more power. I have no source, but I think many, many people have said something similar in regards to professional wooden-bat baseball. I did a basic study regarding that claim, and it appears that the cliché is a dud. But I’ll just give you the results and let you decide for yourself.
Consider a high-OPB, low-slugging-percentage team like the 2012 Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies finished 5th in the AL in OBP, but 12th in SLG. Based on team data going back 40 seasons, if Minnesota improved by 10 OBP points as a team, then I would expect it to score approximately 26 more runs on the season. But say instead they work to improve their weakness by 10 SLG points. Then I would expect them to score just 16 additional runs.
Now consider a low-OBP, high-SLG team like maybe the Baltimore Orioles in 2012. 6th in SLG, but 11th in OBP, the Orioles could expect a 28-run increase from a 10-point bump in OBP. And like the Twins, the Orioles would only get a projected increase of 16 runs from the 10-point bump in slugging. There appears to be some marginal benefit to increasing the Orioles’ weakness, OBP, but nothing noticeable. In both cases, improving OBP seems to be the more savvy option.
It’s fair, however, to wonder if the 10-point leaps are appropriate inputs to the model. After all, it requires only about 7-to-10 OBP points to surpass three teams in the OBP standings, while it takes closer to 18 SLG points to make the same leap. I guess what it really comes down to is how much do OBP and SLG cost? Good thing I have some more data ready!
With help from Baseball-Reference, I gathered up all the free agents that signed between early November of 2011 and late March of 2012 in preparation for last season. I assessed how much their 2012 OBPs and SLGs* associated with their salaries, and here’s what I came up with. Players get paid for slugging. A player with a SLG 10 points greater than his buddy might net that player 400K additional dollars in yearly salary. A 10-point advantage in OBP, however, earns him just $300K extra.
Put another way, the top ten sluggers averaged $8.0M in salary while the top ten on-basers averaged just $6.4M. In a vacuum, 10 OBP points produces more runs than 10 SLG points, but the league still doesn’t seem to be paying out accordingly. If we go back to the original question, we can hypothesize that—based on salaries and stats from these free agents—it costs about as much for 10 OBP points as it does for 7.5 SLG points.
If we adjust our first model, we find that a 10-point increase in OBP far outweighs a 7.5-point increase in SLG. The difference is about 15 runs in favor of adding OBP to your team. That’s 1.5 wins for the same price!
In my mind, the data strongly supports the idea that OBP is still undervalued, and that the Mariners overpaid for the power they hope to get with Mike Morse.
*Even though players are being paid for their OBPs and SLGs from before 2012, their 2012 figures are what the teams actually got out of them. I controlled for each player’s age, position and ballpark to some degree. I had to eliminate players for whom Baseball-Reference had no salary data, and those that didn’t reach 100 PA. The final data set included 67 players.
Tags: featured, John Jaso, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners, Stats
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Hard to Spin Mariners Trade Positively
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The Mariners traded John Jaso for an old friend in Michael Morse, except Jaso went to Oakland because it was a three-team deal. I’ve gathered—since I’m literate—that neither Dave Cameron nor Jeff Sullivan like the trade (see: here and here). So I’m going to go about this as objectively as possible, perhaps with things like new-fangled “statistics.”
We should all know Jaso by now. He’s a sabermetric darling with that 13.4% career walk rate, and perhaps it’s fitting that Oakland nabbed him. He caught a perfect game once, if you heard, and he proved over the course of the season that he wasn’t an incompetent catcher by any means. He was also our best hitter last year by just about every measurement. Except stolen bases.
Since joining the Nationals in 2009, Morse has spent significant time in the corner outfield positions and at first base. He has also spent significant time sucking at those positions. In about a season-and-a-half in the outfield, Morse cost the Nationals about 23 runs by UZR standards or 7 runs by DRS standards. So maybe it’s more accurate to say, “maybe he’s awful, or maybe he’s just bad.” In any case, outfield defense is not his strong suit, and it’s not like there’s room for him at first base at the moment. Morse was definitely not brought in for his glove.
The Mariners traded for Morse not because he can field, but because he can hit! Sometimes. His major attraction comes in the form of 31 homeruns in just 575 plate appearances during the 2011 season. His ISO power since joining the Nats has been well above .200, and everyone likes power. Morse has always been able to turn contact into hits well, posting a career BABIP of .344 in 1690 plate appearances. Bill James projects that it all adds up to a .360 wOBA in 2013. This is becoming a list of good news, but the good news seems to halt there.
After turning 30, Morse saw his ISO dip below .200 last season in his 430 plate appearances. That could be random noise, or it could be the natural aging process that seems to be a thing after 30. His career walk rate of 5.9% is well below league average, and his high flail-rate (36.7% vs. league-average 29%) suggests that this low walk rate is for real. And even that .360 wOBA projection is worse that Jaso’s .372 last season, which is not even park-adjusted.
It would have been awesome to add Morse without giving up a player of Jaso’s caliber. In other words, Morse is not a bad player. But when Jaso is the guy we lose, I have a hard time supporting this deal in and of itself. Since I believe that Jack is a smart baseball mind (pending), I’m going to optimistically assume this is part of another move. The Mariners obviously need a catcher now after the trade, and maybe he has something set up to nab a catcher and something else shiny in a trade. Maybe this was the only way to swing it. Maybe. Otherwise, stay healthy, Mike. Hit 40 out if you could, please.
Tags: Breaking News, featured, John Jaso, Michael Morse, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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Justin Upton Dislikes Coffee?
As far as I know:
1) The Diamondbacks are still shopping Justin Upton.
2) The Diamondbacks lost a major pitching prospect in Trevor Bauer.
3) The Diamondbacks have a lot of outfielders, and they don’t like Justin Upton very much.
4) The Mariners need a good outfielder.
Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
A major problem, as cited here, in working a trade with Upton is that the Mariners are on his no-trade list. I was once confused about no-trade lists, but I believe I have been straightened out. A no-trade clause, in this case, simply means that the Dbacks must have Upton’s approval before trading him to the Mariners. The clause may have been there because Upton doesn’t like rain, doesn’t like pitchers’ parks, doesn’t like coffee…who knows? But if he’s sick enough of Arizona—and he has heard of the fence transplantation in SafeCo as well and something closer to a temperate summer—then perhaps he’d okay a trade to Seattle. Probably not likely, but worth exploring in the Sodomojo pages, nonetheless.
The deal would likely include a major pitching prospect (to replace Bauer), and something else fun, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about. I’m here to talk about the powerful force known as regression to the mean. Dave Cameron alluded to it in an article over at Fangraphs, but maybe some specific examples can advance the discussion.
The biggest knock on Justin Upton comes from his home/road splits. The guy has been a monster at home in the friendly Phoenix atmosphere (138 wRC+), but he’s essentially been Ty Wigginton on the road (96 wRC+). Over the last ten seasons, that 42 wRC+ difference ranks him third most polarized among all batters with at least 1000 plate appearances both home and away. In other words, Justin Upton is an extreme case when it comes to splits.
Let’s take a break to play the Regression to the Mean Game. Heard of it? I’m going to take the best and worst 10 batters from 2011 in terms of a few different stats, and then see how they fared in 2012. Let’s start with batting average.
| Name |
2011 AVG |
2012 AVG |
| Miguel Cabrera |
0.344 |
0.33 |
| Adrian Gonzalez |
0.338 |
0.299 |
| Michael Young |
0.338 |
0.277 |
| Jose Reyes |
0.337 |
0.287 |
| Ryan Braun |
0.332 |
0.319 |
| Victor Martinez |
0.33 |
DNP |
| Matt Kemp |
0.324 |
0.303 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury |
0.321 |
0.271 |
| Hunter Pence |
0.314 |
0.253 |
| Joey Votto |
0.309 |
0.337 |
Besides Joey Votto, every single player declined, or in the case of Victor Martinez, did not play. The average decline was 9.5%.
Now let’s use wRC+ to check for regression in the opposite direction. In other words, did the worst hitters in 2011 rebound? Qualified players only, of course.
| Name | 2011 wRC+ | 2012 wRC+ |
| Alex Rios |
59 |
125 |
| Mark Ellis |
68 |
98 |
| Casey McGehee |
69 |
76 |
| Gordon Beckham |
71 |
79 |
| Alcides Escobar |
71 |
98 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |
73 |
73 |
| Alex Gonzalez |
74 |
126 |
| Miguel Olivo |
75 |
71 |
| Aaron Hill |
77 |
131 |
| Ichiro Suzuki |
79 |
90 |
Ignoring the fact that two Mariners are on the list (and a third would have been if Figgins had been qualified), again we see a lot of regression—this time in an upward direction. The overall regression back up was 35.1%! This isn’t exactly a biased sample either. There’s not a majority of young players or injured players in the sample, where we would have projected obvious improvement.
There are probably many theories as to why extreme players regress. I’m sure psychology plays some role, for instance. But I believe the best explanation for regression is simply the unsustainable nature of extreme play. Whether you want to call it chance, randomness, or luck (or bad luck), it takes more than one’s skill level to perform extremely, in my opinion.
We notice Upton’s splits because they represent an outlier among baseball players. We can go back and try to explain that it’s caused by his home ball park, or maybe his swing, or that he loathes airplanes, etc. But as with any metric in baseball, it would be foolish to assume that Upton’s stats are representative of such an extreme inability to hit outside Chase Field. Just having a hitter-friendly home ballpark doesn’t explain it all.
We saw that Miguel Cabrera won the batting title in 2011. We know Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter. We should still have expected regression in the following the season.
We see that Upton is among the three most extreme players when it comes to home/away splits. We know Upton should have distinguished splits, playing in Chase. We should still expect regression in the 2013 season.
In Upton’s case specifically, we should probably assume he’s not as bad on the road as his 96 wRC+ suggests, and perhaps he’s not quite as good at home as his 138 wRC+ suggests. If regression is up to something, as usual, then Upton is not likely to move to Seattle and continue hitting at a .250/.325/.406 clip on the road. Maybe in SafeCo, but not on the road.
The trade is unlikely, but I would welcome Upton with open arms. He’s good, he fills a major need in the organization, he’s 25, and he’s signed through 2015 on a team-friendly deal.
Tags: Arizona Diamondbacks, featured, justin upton, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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Nick Swisher: More like Bread, Less like Wine
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The more I look into the data, the more proof I get that players just don’t do all that well into their 30′s. Sure you have guys like Barry Bonds that had really, really productive seasons on the south side of 30. But for every one of them, there seems to be 10 more that flamed out.
The Mariners are somewhat likely to land Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher in the next few weeks. There is little doubt that either player will improve the Mariners’ offense this year, the next year, and probably even the year after that. However, neither player is likely to sign for only three years, so let’s take a look at a longer-term projection.
Using Baseball-Reference’s similarity scores, I gathered both Hamilton and Swisher’s top 10 comparable players (up to and through the age-31 season). I then analyzed the average performance of those ten players in each subsequent season on the downhill side of 31. I looked at the effects of age on these types of players in terms of plate appearances, BABIP, OBP, ISO, Bill James’ Power-Speed statistic, and WAR.
I analyzed Hamilton on Monday, so here we go with Nick Swisher.
The first thing I noticed about Swisher’s comps was that they played fewer seasons after reaching age 31 than did Hamilton’s comps. The median for Hamilton’s comps was 6 years, while Swisher’s best friends only made it 4 years past the age-31 season. In other words, if Swisher is as much like his most-similar players as Hamilton is, then we should expect him to flame out sooner into his 30′s than Hamilton.
As we expected based on the information above, Swisher’s comps saw their stats decline over the years. The chart below summarizes the average decline each year.
| Stat | Yearly Change |
| PA | -54 PA |
| Babip | -8 points |
| OBP | -7 points |
| ISO | -17 points |
| PwrSpd | -1.29 units |
| WAR | -0.50 wins |
While Hamilton’s cronies declined just 0.36 WAR on average, Swisher’s declined by half of a win! Logically, this may have something to do with the fact that Swisher has put more wear and tear on his body. Swisher was called up during his age-23 season for the Oakland Athletics, while Hamilton was prohibited from playing in the majors until his age-26 season. It could be that Hamilton’s injury issues more than make up for his decreased service time, but I don’t have any hard evidence for that. What I do know is that Swisher’s best comps did not last long, and they retired or declined quickly after their age-35 seasons.
Let’s take a look at a 6-year projection for Swisher, with a starting value of $5M per WAR, a 7.5% inflation rate, and the assumption that he plays in 2013 how he played between 2010 and 2012.
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
631 |
2.8 |
$14.0 |
|
2014 |
577 |
2.3 |
$12.4 |
|
2015 |
523 |
1.8 |
$10.4 |
|
2016 |
469 |
1.3 |
$8.1 |
|
2017 |
415 |
0.8 |
$5.3 |
|
2018 |
361 |
0.3 |
$2.2 |
| Total |
2976 |
9.3 |
$52.3 |
That looks pretty ugly unless Swisher is willing to go 4 years for $40M. But obviously that’s not going to happen. However, one thing about Swisher’s comps as alluded to above, is that the real drop off came after four years. In other words, the aging process wasn’t linear at all. In fact, on average his comps actually maintained value for their age-32 through age-35 seasons. This probably has a lot to do with plate discipline and patience. Swisher and his comps derive a lot of value from plate discipline, summarized nicely by Swisher’s career 13.2% walk rate and .361 OBP. Those skills hold on a little longer, so maybe the following projection is fairer.
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
631 |
2.8 |
$14.0 |
|
2014 |
577 |
2.7 |
$14.5 |
|
2015 |
523 |
2.6 |
$15.0 |
|
2016 |
469 |
2.5 |
$15.5 |
|
2017 |
415 |
1.5 |
$10.0 |
|
2018 |
361 |
0.5 |
$3.6 |
| Total |
2976 |
12.6 |
$72.7 |
With pretty constant value for four years, and then sudden drops, this version of Swisher looks like a candidate for no more than 4 years at $60M. In fact, Fangraphs crowdsourcing projected a 4-year contract at $56M.
What these two quick studies on Hamilton’s and Swisher’s comparable players have shown me is that the aging process is very real and very harsh after a player’s age-31 season. Even a good player. I know it’s important to get a bat, and overspending a little would be worth it to get a few more wins around here. But if the M’s absolutely have to go five years to get Swisher, I hope it’s for no more than $65M. I would prefer 4 years at $55M!
Tags: featured, nick swisher, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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How much is too much for Hamilton?
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Mariners are somewhat likely to land Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher in the next 168 hours. There is little doubt that either player would improve the Mariners’ offense this year, the next year, and probably even the year after that. However, neither player is likely to sign for only three years, so let’s take a look at a longer-term projection.
Using Baseball-Reference’s similarity scores, I gathered both Hamilton and Swisher’s top 10 comparable players (up to and through the age-31 season). I then analyzed the average performance of those ten players in each subsequent season on the downhill side of 31. I looked at the effects of age on these types of players in terms of plate appearances, BABIP, OBP, ISO, Bill James’ Power-Speed statistic, and WAR.
Let’s get started with Josh Hamilton today.
We all know that players tend to get worse with age. For some, that age is 30, and for others, not 30. The best I can do for predicting Josh Hamilton’s aging process is to see how similar players aged. Maybe Hamilton will be different and special, but that’s not a probable outcome.
Hamilton’s ten best comps declined on average each year after they turned 31. The chart below summarized the group’s year –to –year changes.
| Stat | Yearly Change |
| PA | -40 PA |
| Babip | -5 points |
| OBP | -12 points |
| ISO | -18 points |
| PwrSpd | -1.35 units |
| WAR | -0.36 wins |
We can see that the group of Hamilton’s best friends declined in every statistic. Not every player declined every year, but the trend was most definitely downward. And I should point out that these negative changes likely underestimate the effect of aging to some degree since players that chose to retire were not able to be counted. A player that chooses to retire likely does so because he feels that he will do poorly. If we could somehow go back in time and force all the players in our sample to play seven full seasons after the age of 31, we would almost certainly find that the average decline was even more pronounced than that above—especially in terms of WAR. More on this later.
If we assume that Hamilton will be a 5.1-WAR player in 2013, that a win on the open market is currently worth $5M, that the market inflation rate will be 7.5%, and that he will only lose 0.36 WAR each season, then here’s what seven years would look like.
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
582 |
5.1 |
$25.5 |
|
2014 |
542 |
4.74 |
$25.5 |
|
2015 |
502 |
4.38 |
$25.3 |
|
2016 |
462 |
4.02 |
$25.0 |
|
2017 |
422 |
3.66 |
$24.4 |
|
2018 |
382 |
3.3 |
$23.7 |
|
2019 |
342 |
2.94 |
$22.7 |
| Total |
3234 |
28.14 |
$172.1 |
Hey, that looks pretty swell! Seven years for $175M—which Hamilton lobbed out there a few weeks ago—doesn’t look so far-fetched with the above assumptions. However, 7.5% inflation is probably a high forecast, and a 0.36-WAR loss per season is quite conservative due to the sampling bias mentioned above. With an inflation rate of 5% and a 0.5-WAR loss per season, this is Hamilton’s outlook:
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
582 |
5.1 |
$25.5 |
|
2014 |
542 |
4.6 |
$24.7 |
|
2015 |
502 |
4.1 |
$23.7 |
|
2016 |
462 |
3.6 |
$22.4 |
|
2017 |
422 |
3.1 |
$20.7 |
|
2018 |
382 |
2.6 |
$18.7 |
|
2019 |
342 |
2.1 |
$16.2 |
| Total |
3234 |
25.2 |
$151.8 |
I’m leaning more on the side of the second scenario, though I still think it’s a bit kind to Hamilton. Based on those numbers, I would be pleased if the Mariners signed Hamilton for six years at $125M. Fangraphs crowd sourcing predicted some weeks ago that a Hamilton contract would end up being 5 years for $100M. That would be quite a deal for the signing team, but we just learned that Fangraphs’ readers undershot Zack Greinke by $33M, so I’m not holding my breath on 5/100.
Obviously, none of the comparable players were Josh Hamilton. There were a lot like Josh Hamilton in some statistical ways, but not every way. Hamilton swings at everything, perhaps more like Vladimir Guerrero in that way. Hamilton has a history of drug problems, maybe more like Lenny Dykstra. Hamilton is left-handed and injury prone, maybe more like Ken Griffey, Jr.
For the curious, Dykstra washed up after 31, posting two seasons worth a total 2.6 bWAR. Guerrero had one more good season at 32 with 4.3 bWAR, then disappeared, posting just 4.5 bWAR over his final four seasons. Griffey fought on valiantly, but in the end, he accumulated just 4.3 bWAR in parts of nine seasons after 31.
Is that a study? No. It’s an anecdote. But here’s a fact: just four of Hamilton’s ten comps made it to their age-38 season, the seventh season after 31.
Age is stacked against Hamilton, but I still think he’s worth a six-year contract if the price is in the $125M range. Just don’t Chone Figgins us, please.
Tomorrow, we’ll have some fun with Nick Swisher—at least, with the statistics he has produced. He won’t actually be here with me.
Tags: featured, Josh Hamilton, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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The Mariners and the Win Curve
The Baseball Winter Meetings, worthy of capitalization, began today in Nashville. Among other activities, owners and GMs hang out and talk about signing and flipping assets. Assets being players in this case. Jonah Keri of Grantland wrote a piece about which 10 teams are most likely to “make a splash.” Regardless of how you define “making a splash,” the Mariners are on the list as they should be.
I would guess that each team’s fans want to “make a splash” in some way. Splashes are exciting, and more often than not, splashes bring with them more winning. But there are certain teams that should be more into splashes, and the Mariners are one of those teams.
It really comes down to a cost-benefit analysis. Splashes cost money, but provide benefits in terms of wins, and wins lead to playoffs (sometimes). Wins and playoffs lead to more revenue, and the splash cycle can restart with more juice. But there’s a catch. Five more wins for the Houston Astros or New York Yankees does not provide the same benefit as five more wins for an average team. One of those teams mentioned will not make the playoffs, and one of those teams will (probably) make the playoffs, no matter what splashes are signed.
But now think about a team like Seattle. Without any signings, Seattle’s expectation is probably about 75-to-80 wins. But as the A’s and O’s of 2012, along with the Mariners of 2010, have shown us is that variation in baseball is high. A good team expected to win 85 or 90 games can wind up with just 60, and some mediocre teams expected to win 75 can win 90+ and make the playoffs. That’s the variance of baseball, so consider these theoretical numbers.
1) Results from last year suggest that a team needs at least 88 wins to make the playoffs.
2) Say the Mariners are expected to win 77 games, plus-or-minus 10 games. 67 to 87 wins.
Though these are theoretical expectations so far, we can see that if they are true, the Mariners are unlikely to make the playoffs. If this were, for instance, a 95% prediction interval, then the M’s essentially would have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. Now let’s give Josh Hamilton to the Mariners, and increase their expectation by 5 wins, to 82. Now the range of expectation sits at 72 to 92, and a chunk of that expectation lives in Playoffs Land, which is inhabited by Revenue Fairies. This would increase the M’s playoff chances substantially, perhaps to 15 or 20%. Just think if we added both Hamilton and Edwin Jackson 
In this scenario, the benefits of players like Hamilton, Justin Upton, Jackson, or whomever very well could outweigh the financial/asset burden in the near future. I’m not prepared to discuss the future beyond 2013, but I can argue strongly that the M’s are in prime position to make the most of free-agent signings because of their proximity to the “playoff bubble.” The Astros and Yankees are probably far from the playoff bubble, and should not make major changes. The Mariners are extremely close to the playoff bubble, and should take this opportunity to push themselves over the edge. Whether they sign free agents with monetary costs, or trade for MLB-ready talent with asset costs, now is a strategic time to maximize the benefits for our beloved Seattle Mariners.
Tags: edwin jackson, featured, free agent market, Josh Hamilton, justin upton, off season plans, Off-Season, playoff chances, Popular, trades, win curve, winter meetings
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Shoring up the Rotation
Joel summed up the rotation pretty well last week, and while any report about the M’s pitching should have us excited about the future, perhaps we shouldn’t be so content with the present.
Here’s what the rotation is likely to look like come April (with no roster changes):
|
1 |
Hernandez |
|
2 |
??? |
|
3 |
Vargas |
|
4 |
Iwakuma |
|
5 |
Ramirez |
Obviously if we don’t get another pitcher this off season, everyone bumps up and Blake Beavan takes over the #5 spot. Or, as Joel mentioned, perhaps Tom Wilhelmsen could be asked to bring out the hammer for five or six innings at a time. While we’re waiting for any one of the “Big Three” to be ready, I don’t think we necessarily need to throw away a spot in the order hoping for Beavan to figure it out, or for Wilhelmsen to translate closer success into starter success. There’s a laundry list of free-agent pitchers out there that could help bolster the rotation for a few years. And, contrary to popular opinion, we might just need some stability on staff.
We’re all hoping that each of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen becomes valuable parts of the pitching staff. But Joel articulated the harsh reality of prospects not too long ago. Perhaps we should taper our expectations to 1-out-of-the-Big-Three, and muster up a backup plan.
First stop: Fangraphs’ free agent leaderboards!
Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE
I’m quite fond of Zack Greinke, and Peavy is intriguing; but cost and injury risk, respectively, turn me away. Brandon McCarthy gets your wheels turning upstairs, and teams are likely to shy away due to his off-season brain surgery. But I don’t want high risk. We’re avoiding high-risk, right?
The guys I’m looking at are Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren. Did you know Jackson is just 29 years old? Jackson has never put up less than 160 innings, and we know just what we’re getting.
| Year | Innings | FIP | xFIP |
| 2010 | 209.1 | 3.86 | 3.71 |
| 2011 | 199.2 | 3.55 | 3.73 |
| 2012 | 189.2 | 3.85 | 3.79 |
Talk about consistency, especially in the xFIPs. Last year he didn’t like any long-term offers and went to the Nats for a one-year, $11M allowance. Then he went ahead and put up a very Edwin Jackson-like season. Edwin Jackson is not Felix Hernandez, but Edwin Jackson is not Blake Beavan. We know exactly who Edwin Jackson is. He’s right up there in that chart. Maybe the M’s could get him for three years and less than $30M? I’d do it.
Dan Haren is, if you can believe it, actually older than Jake Peavy. However, Haren has a recent track record of actually pitching. Peavy hadn’t broken 200 innings before this season in three years. Haren’s K/BB rates have never dipped below 3.00, and recently clocked in at 3.74 (2012). One thing that irks me a little is that the Angels declined his $15.5M option earlier this month, instead paying him $3.5M to hit free agency. Home teams tend to know their players well, and Buster Olney reported something about hip problems. The speculation is that he will have to settle for a one or two-year deal. That deal is not likely to be for $15.5M per year, or even close to it. The Angels essentially valued him at $12M for 2013 (15.5 – 3.5). His injury concerns don’t sound too risky, and Haren could be available for, maybe, two years at $24M? I’d do it.
Yes, I realize we need bats, too. But pretending that the rotation is fine and that all three parts of the three-headed monster will become major league talents is naïve. Getting a solid #2 starter now while it’s available on the market would be a savvy move.
Tags: brandon mccarthy, Dan Haren, edwin jackson, featured, free agents, Jake Peavy, Off-Season, pitching, Popular, rotation, seattle mariners, sodo mojo, zack greinke
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Mariners Trade Trayvon Robinson for Robert Andino
Today, outfielder Trayvon Robinson was sent to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for utility infielder, Robert Andino.
Robinson dives into third base. Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE
This was a good move for the team. Robinson was one of many outfielders competing for a spot on the major league roster, and wasn’t going to become a difference maker in Seattle. There was a strong chance that he wouldn’t have made the 25-man roster out of spring training next year and would have ended up going through waivers where another team would have picked up him anyways. Seattle has a plethora of outfielders such as Carp, Thames, and Peguero that can fill the gap left by Trayvon.
The young outfielder was certainly a pleasure to watch. Every day, we got to see him play hard baseball and his smile could light up a stadium. His fun personality and love for the game will be missed here in Seattle. I hope he finds success in his new home.
Robert Andino was a sensible pickup for the Mariners. With the release of Kawasaki, the organization needed a reliable utility infielder and Andino fits that mold. He has a solid glove and can bring a bit of speed to the bases. He also brings a much better bat than Kawasaki did. The new Mariner struggled last year, but he posted a respectable 1.8 WAR in 139 games in 2011 which was tenth in the American League at second base. That’s a pretty good return for a journeyman outfielder.
The interesting thing about this deal is its possible implications. Billy Butler has been a potential target for the Mariners, and one name that has been tossed around in a possible trade has been Dustin Ackley. The acquisition of Andino could mean that the Mariners are more available to move Ackley. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
If Ackley is traded, Andino could be a good guy to hold down the fort at second base until a prospect like Nick Franklin or Brad Miller is ready to step in.
Overall, this was a practical and necessary move for Seattle. The really fascinating thing about the trade is whether it will lead to bigger moves in the future.
Tags: Billy Butler, dustin ackley, featured, Mariners General, Off-Season, Popular, Robert Andino, trades, Transaction, Trayvon Robinson
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Cut or Keep: Mike Carp & Eric Thames
Jun 02, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Mike Carp (20) gets a hit against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-US PRESSWIRE
This will be the first part of a series analyzing some of the more questionable players on the current Mariners roster. These players have unknown roles going forward in the organization and this series will attempt to determine where each player stands.
—————————————————————
It wasn’t too long ago when Mike Carp looked like he would be a stable part of Seattle’s future. After destroying AAA in 2011, Carp came up to Seattle and hit .323 with 8 home runs and 34 RBIs in just 155 at bats in July and August 2011. Although his numbers dropped off in September, Carp helped energize an anemic offense and provided some real hope for the future.
One year later and Carp seems like an afterthought. Lost to an unfortunate opening day injury that would plague him for the entire season, Carp’s 2012 resulted in just 189 trips to the plate and a mere .213 with 5 home runs in total. After returning from the DL, Carp faded into the bench as the Mariners auditioned other young players – including the strikingly similar newcomer Eric Thames.
One of my first thoughts when the Mariners acquired Thames from the Blue Jays in July was “Is Mike Carp done in this organization? They’re basically the same player!” While Thames is a mere five months younger, both are left handed bats with intriguing power but fringy contact and plate discipline skills. Thames is certainly more athletic and faster, but both take terrible routes in the outfield.
To compare, lake a look at the snapshot of their profiles below. Both players are rated on the traditional scouting scale (20 is the worst, 50 is average, 80 is the best) based on adjusted numbers from the past three years. Each skill is measured by different factors and compared against all other players from 2010-2012 to generate these numbers. I’ll likely explain more in a later post, but basically batting average and home runs have been adjusted based on luck, and counting numbers are based on 600 plate appearances (or a full season).
As seen in the profiles above, Carp and Thames are extremely similar ballplayers. The only real difference is some slightly better plate discipline from Carp and much better baserunning from Thames. With Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders and (presumably) Casper Wells penciled in for the 2013 roster, there just isn’t room for both of them. Not to mention the rumors of the M’s pursuing Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher in free agency. The only exception would be if the Mariners cut bait on Justin Smoak, allowing Mike Carp to slide into first base, but that seems highly unlikely. So, who is most likely to stay or go?
The deciding factor may lie in the fact that Carp is out of options, while Thames has one remaining. With the two players being so similar, it is likely that the Mariners will look to trade Carp and let Thames audition for an opening day job. If Thames disappoints in Spring Training, then he can spend some time in Tacoma without a problem. Plus, it doesn’t take any number-crunching to know that Thames is much more athletic than Carp. While both have performed pretty horribly in the outfield, there is at least hope that Thames can keep working to become a decent defender. Taking better routes is something that could be learned and hopefully Thames’ athleticism will allow him to improve himself in ways that Carp couldn’t.
With the Mariners looking to be aggressive this off-season and to add in the outfield and possibly first-base, there just aren’t many roster spots up for grabs. It’s a little difficult giving up on either player considering what has happened to similar players like Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez in the past. Like Morse and Ibanez, it’s easy to see Carp and Thames putting together some good offensive seasons in the future and making Seattle regret letting them go. They both have raw power and the ability to contribute in a winning lineup – the question is whether or not it will be in Seattle. For Mike Carp, unfortunately, his chance will most likely come somewhere outside of the Pacific Northwest.
What do you think? Which one would you keep? Or would you rather find a way to keep them both?
Tags: Mariners General, Off-Season
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Elite Pitchers and WAR
Many players began this off-season with no contract. Many of those players are starting pitchers. Starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Anibal Sanchez. Through the following research, I found that it seems that perhaps WAR systematically overvalues elite starting pitchers–something to be aware of during this off season and those to follow.
When valuing players, there are two primary stats we turn to: Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Win Percentage Added (WPA). WAR completely strips every play of its context, valuing a walkoff grandslam the same as a first-inning solo shot. On the other hand, WPA attempts to calibrate for each unique situation, and it would value that walkoff slam quite a bit more than the first-inning solo homerun. I think it’s fair to say that WAR’s primary advantage over WPA is its ability to filter out a lot of statistical noise and hone in on a player’s true talent level. Though WPA may be better at explaining what happened and when it happened, it also gives players a lot of credit for something not believed to be a repeatable skill: clutch performance.
But it’s not my intention to get into an argument about the validity of either stat. I actually want to encourage the use of both in conjunction, especially when valuing elite starting pitchers as a group.
For an individual player, WPA’s inclusion of “clutch value” tends to make it a very fickle statistic. In 2003, Albert Pujols slashed .359/.439/.667 with 43 homeruns. He would have won the NL MVP if not for some guy named Barry Bonds. But that season also represented just the fifth best season of Pujols’ career in terms of WPA, probably due to the fact that the average leverage of his plate appearances that season was well below average (0.93). Pretty much by dumb luck, Pujols didn’t get as many crucial trips to the plate. This is mostly why WPA is not used as often as WAR. Too much is out of the player’s control.
However, while one player’s WPA may not be representative of his skill set, the WPA of an entire group of players can hint at trends to which we should pay attention. I think WAR is the product of a lot of smart thinking, but its greatest strength is also its primary shortcoming. Stripping context out of a value statistic completely perhaps ignores patterns of how and where that value is distributed throughout the season. For example, an elite pitcher has a lot of control over about 35 games per season, and virtually no control over the other 127. It would seem that good pitchers are more likely to be involved in blowout wins, since they have so much control over the outcome of those games relative to position players. Thus, WAR might have a tendency to overvalue good starting pitchers, giving them larger chunks of WAR in situations that don’t help the team. But how to measure it… Oh I know! WPA!
To get started, I took the top 10% of hitters and the top 10% of pitchers by WAR in 2012 (through September 23rd). I then subtracted each player’s WPA from his WAR to get an idea of how much WAR overvalues WPA. While there are nuances to the concepts of “above replacement” (WAR) versus “above average” (WPA), those nuances should be flushed out later when I compare the two groups. For 2012, the top 10% of pitchers recorded a WAR 2.55 wins greater than WPA. The top 10% of hitters only recorded a WAR 2.11 wins greater than WPA. Though the 2.55 and 2.11 figures themselves shouldn’t mean much to us, the 0.44-win difference should. That figure approximates that WAR is overvaluing elite starting pitchers by 0.44 wins on average, relative to the elite hitters. I think this is due to a greater percentage of the WAR an elite starting pitcher accumulates being wasted on blowout wins.
So while the WPA of one single player is highly variable, looking at WPA trends in 2012 for elite starters suggests that, on average, WAR is overvaluing top pitchers. But why use small sample sizes when you can use big sample sizes?
I performed the same test, combining the 2009 through 2011 seasons. However, to qualify for elite status, a player had to be in the 85th percentile for both WAR and WPA over the three seasons. This hopefully reduced any sampling biases of the first method. The hitter group recorded a WAR 5.9 wins greater than WPA, while the pitcher group’s difference climbed to 7.7 wins. Again, we expect WAR to outpace WPA since the baseline for WAR is lower, so these differences in and of themselves are not surprising. But when we compare the differences between the pitchers and hitters groups—the differences in the differences, if you will—the pitchers were “overvalued” by an additional 1.8 wins compared to the hitters (7.7 minus 5.9), or about 0.6 wins per season. In terms of money, that’s worth approximately $2.5M on the free-agent market these days, and not something that should be entirely ignored.
*It should be noted that the differences in WAR minus WPA for the 2009 – 2011 tests were highly significant, according to both a T-test and a Wilcoxon Rank Sum test.
Tags: Anibal Sanchez, featured, Jake Peavy, Off-Season, Popular, starting pitchers, value, WAR, WPA, zack greinke
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Mariners Leave Two Behind
As per the Seattle Times, the Mariners bought out Miguel Olivo’s $3M option for $750K, and have sadly released Munenori Kawasaki.
Miguel Olivo’s $750K buyout is a sunk cost, so any evaluation of his option should consider his 2013 salary to be $2.25M. On that note, let’s take a look at some telling projections:
My analysis suggests that Olivo will be worth less to the Mariners next season than I will, and that his $750K buyout should be redirected to my bank account. I summarize my opinions on Olivo’s 2013 status with a Venn Diagram:
Kawasaki, while not much of a baseball player in Seattle, was very much a fun guy to have around. He will be missed by me, and I assume many of you.
Tags: featured, graphs, miguel olivo, Munenori Kawasaki, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners, venn diagram
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