Mike Zunino

The Case for Demoting Jesus Montero

jesus-isYou know those “Jesus is _____” bumper stickers? Every time I see one of those, I want to walk up with a pen and write “only hitting .203″ on the blank line. Sure, the vehicle’s owner might not get nor appreciate the joke, but hey, don’t buy a fill-in-the-blank bumper sticker next time.

In fact, you could make all sorts of “Jesus is” wisecracks when it comes to Mariners catcher Jesus Montero. Jesus is 0-for-15 in throwing out stealing base runners. Jesus is unable to hit a curveball. Or how about this one: Jesus is destined for Triple-A. It’s that last “Jesus is” that might be most concerning. But based on current circumstances, it should become the team’s reality.

Montero has been abysmal both offensively and defensively in 2013. He hasn’t hit for average or for power, and he hasn’t even been close to adequate behind the plate. As alluded to earlier, Montero has yet to nab a base-stealer in 15 tries and has often looked stiff and uncomfortable receiving pitches. Were he hitting .300 with a handful of home runs, no one would care that the 23-year-old was providing less-than-serviceable defense. But as the owner of a .203/.250/.324 slash line, Montero certainly isn’t atoning for his shortcomings in the field right now.

Recently, it’s been rumored that manager Eric Wedge has been pressured from the organization’s front office to play Montero on a more frequent basis. Montero has received (note: not earned) a slight bump in playing time, taking about two-thirds of the starts to backup Kelly Shoppach’s one-third. Even with increased opportunity, however, the second-year big leaguer has yet to deliver. In his past 10 games, the ex-Yankee is performing no more remarkably than he was at the season’s outset, compiling a .194 batting average along the way (though, in fairness, he has belted his only two home runs of the year in that span). Nevertheless, settling in around the Mendoza Line does not a major leaguer make. Montero doesn’t necessarily have to hit for both average AND power (it’d be nice, though), but he can’t get by with a sub-.200 line.

Aside from his hitting struggles, where player and team have most failed to align is in their commitment to one another. The franchise seems committed to giving Montero a long look at catcher. Montero, meanwhile, seems committed to proving he is not that at all. Rock, meet hard place. The end result of this mutual stubbornness is a big ol’ crap sandwich. It doesn’t have to be that way.

Everyone and their mother knows that the M’s catcher of the future currently resides at Triple-A Tacoma. The uber-prospect that is Mike Zunino has had an up and down start to his 2013 campaign. This isn’t unanticipated. Zunino has yet to play a full season in the pros, and were all to go according to plan, he wouldn’t see his first action at Safeco Field until 2014. Problem is, Montero’s struggles have accelerated the demand for a Zunino call-up.

Zunino and Montero are mutually exclusive entities. No one should believe a demotion of Montero will necessarily result in a promotion of Zunino. Montero has done nothing to earn his spot on the big league roster, however, and shouldn’t be here anymore. Not if this team is truly committed to winning.

It’s clear that if the Mariners really want Montero to experience life behind the plate, he should be playing every single day. It’s also clear that, based on the way he’s been playing, Montero has done very little to warrant an everyday spot in the lineup. Therefore, all signs point to sending Montero to the minors, giving the majority of the big league starts (for now) to Kelly Shoppach, and promoting anyone else with a pulse not named Zunino to be Shoppach’s understudy. In this case, that might be Triple-A backup Jesus Sucre, who is nothing special with the bat, but can actually live up to his job title and, you know, catch.

Of course, this begs the question of what to do with Zunino in the interim. If Montero and Zunino share a clubhouse, only one can log time behind the plate. Fact is, the Mariners need to make a hard call on their catchers. Could they teach Montero how to play first base? Maybe. Could they let both players work on their hitting while splitting time as backstops? Possibly. Could they send Montero to Double-A to work on his receiving skills? That’s also an option. Honestly, it really doesn’t matter what the organization does so long as they jettison Montero to the farm and prove to both players and fans that they a) want to give opportunities to the most deserving players, and b) believe the 2013 Mariners aren’t losers. Seriously. Because, to date, the current regime has never shown much in the way of faith for their ballclub, regardless of how many wins the team can string together at any given moment. It’s about time they display some commitment to a winning mentality, and that starts by demoting those who deserve to be demoted.

Jesus is not for long in the big leagues. It’s time the Mariners filled in the blank.


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Somewhat Bold Predictions for the Mariners in 2013

Tomorrow is opening day for the Mariners, and you should be PUMPED! The team is undeniably moving in the right direction. This year will be another step forward for Seattle, and they may even surprise some people. I don’t usually like giving super bold predictions, so here is a quick list of somewhat bold predictions I am making for the Mariners this year.

Brendan Ryan hits .270

Ryan has simplified his swing for 2013. Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan literally didn’t hit his own weight in 2012, but that’s not how it has always been. In his first full season in the major leagues, Ryan hit .292 with a .332 BABIP. Sure, the BABIP is a bit high, but it certainly is no indication of a future .194 hitter like he was in 2012. One of the big differences between the Ryan of 2012 and previous years was that he had no luck getting hits from ground balls. His average on line drives was also low which indicates a bit of unluckiness which is supported by his measly .244 BABIP over the season. Common logic tells us that his average will rise back to the mid .200’s. In theory, his adjusted hitting mechanics will cut down on his strikeout rate which has climbed for each of the last two seasons, and his removed bone spur should help him as well. Once you take all these things into consideration, a .270 average from Ryan seems possible.

Blake Beavan doesn’t last the full season in the rotation

If you read my last article, you know that I don’t think much of Blake Beavan. When I look at him, I see a pitcher who pitches to contact but doesn’t know how to get groundballs and doesn’t know how to avoid barrels. His stuff isn’t good enough to bail him out when he makes mistakes, and he tends to make a lot of mistakes. With Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton all sitting in AAA close to being prepared to pitch in Seattle, I don’t see the Mariners giving Beavan a whole lot of slack this season.

The Mariners are within 4 games of division lead in September

This somewhat bold prediction is derived from a gut feeling more than anything else. My main support for this ascertain is a simple, “why not?” The Mariners are a solid team that, with a little extra production, could win 85 games this year, and the division probably doesn’t have a team good enough to run away with the AL West crown unless the Angels’ rotation over performs. Saying that the Mariners will win the division is a bit too bold for me, but saying that they will be the hunt down the stretch is just somewhat bold enough for my liking.

Michael Saunders has a 25/25 year

Last year, Saunders hit 19 homeruns and stole 21 bases. In 2013, he will likely get more at bats and will probably have much better protection in the batting order. Assuming that he continues to progress as a player, a 25/25 year for Saunders would be a bit surprising but certainly not unrealistic.

King Felix wins his second Cy Young award

Again, why not? There is no doubt that Felix Hernandez has good enough stuff to win the Cy Young, and this year his numbers should get a little help from the games he will pitch against the Astros instead of the Angels. The improved offense should provide a few more wins which will give him some extra votes. Seattle’s stellar defense should also help his case. Even with the fences moving in, Safeco won’t be easy on batters and Felix’ numbers outside of Safeco have never been much worse than at home. In fact, he has allowed more homeruns at home than on the road in several different seasons. The dimensions shouldn’t have a significant impact of the King.

Franklin Gutierrez gets traded

The pieces match up for a trade like this happening. It’s his last year under contract, the Mariners could use to dump his salary, he doesn’t seem to be in the organization’s future, and he could fetch a decent return. It’s a perfect situation for Seattle. It’s not often that a gold glove caliber centerfielder gets traded, but if it is going to happen this summer, it will probably happen to Guti.

Mike Zunino makes his major league debut before the all star break

Zunino is spring training. Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Zunino has thrived in every level of competition he has seen thus far. He will start 2013 on the doorstep of the major leagues, and with nothing more than a defensively inept catcher standing between him and a major league starting job, it doesn’t seem like he’ll have to wait very long to get his major league debut. Prior to the all star break may be a bit optimistic, but it is doable. His ETA will also vary based upon a few other players.

Smoak has a .800 OPS

It seems a bit unrealistic, doesn’t it? Let me lay out a scenario for you. Justin Smoak will replicate his typical walk rate of about 10% while finally posting a somewhat respectable BABIP. With a tad bit of luck, his OBP should sit around .350 in this scenario. In order to achieve his .800 OPS he will need to slug .450. This is a stretch for Smoak, but we know he has made some changes at the plate. If his Spring Training is any indication of his future, a .450 slugging percentage could just barely be in reach. He hit as many doubles in spring training as he did in five months in 2012. If Chris Johnson can reach a .450 SLG%, Smoak should be able to.

The team ERA drops

Considering that Hector Noesi won’t be pitching every five days in 2013, this somewhat bold prediction looks pretty good. I prefer Joe Saunders to Jason Vargas and I think Iwakuma will improve in his sophomore year. With some added experience in the bullpen, the team ERA is prone to drop in 2013.

The season attendance reaches 2,500,000 fans

The club has received a minor facelift, the ballpark has seen some remodeling, the promotions are stellar, and the weather appears to be wonderful; there is no reason why 2,500,000 fans shouldn’t enter Safeco Field for the first time since 2007. Get out and watch some games!

Happy baseball season!

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Seattle Mariners Top Five Prospects In 2013

Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

This week, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com compiled the top 100 prospects in the league. The Mariners’ farm system ranked near the top of both the American and National League, with three prospects in the top 25 and five players in all.

Here’s a brief look at each of Seattle’s top five prospects:

Taijuan Walker

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 5
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 4

The most lucrative name of the Mariners’ Big Four (Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Brandon Maurer), Taijuan spent his third MiLB season with the Double-A Jackson Generals. Over 25 starts and 126.2 IP, he finished with a 4.69 ERA, allowing 50 walks, 12 home runs, and striking out 118 of 550 batters.

CBS Sports highlighted the 20-year-old last August: “In the end, he knows the Mariners are looking out for his long-term success — something they believe will come. One scout told CBSSports.com, “I never like to anoint guys, but he’s special.”

Walker’s special because of his physique, the fact he throws an easy high-90s fastball and the curve and change up are developing. But more than that, the team loves his work ethic and his maturity.”

Danny Hultzen

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 18
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 8

Although Walker’s potential is considered tops in the Mariners’ organization, the southpaw Hultzen has been drawing attention as well. He advanced to the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers’ staff in 2012, posting a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts and 48.2 IP. While generating a walk rate of 17.9%, he allowed just two home runs to 240 batters.

Mayo had this to say about Hultzen: “The biggest surprise was a loss of control (he finished 2012 with a 5.4 BB/9 rate), something that was a plus for Hultzen coming out of the University of Virginia. Most see that as a blip on the radar and still feel his stuff and pitchability should have him ready for the big leagues very soon.”

Mike Zunino

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 23
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 44

With the loss of John Jaso and Miguel Olivo this offseason, fans have turned an eager eye to the development of Mike Zunino, a hot-hitting backstop who jumped from short-season single A to Double-A in his first minor league season. At 21 years old, Zunino projected numbers like those of Jesus Montero (albeit at a bit slower pace), batting .333/.386/.558 in 15 games with Jackson, picking up 7 XBH, 8 RBI, and an OPS of .974.

On his mid-season call-up to the Jackson Generals, Prospect Insider’s Jason Churchill wrote the following: “Zunino, the top college bat in a class lacking depth in that area, generally receives average or better grades across the board, including receiving, blocking and throwing, and offers above-average-to-plus power with the bat.

He understands the game of baseball and knows how to catch. He has leadership skills, big-league makeup and as one scout put it early on draft day, “he has that vinegar, that extra gear of effort and feel that makes you want him on your team.”

Nick Franklin

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 47
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 29

Shortstop Nick Franklin is on the rise to the majors, completing his fourth minor-league year with half a season in Triple-A. In 2012, he hit .243/.310/.416 in 64 games and 296 PA for the Rainiers, collecting 7 home runs, 29 RBI, and 24 walks along the way. Although his starts were split evenly between second base and shortstop, Franklin has notched almost three times as many games at short in his minor league career.

Mayo’s analysis, per MLB.com: “A switch-hitter who has been much better from the left side thus far in his career, Franklin has a good idea at the plate with a good approach. The ball can jump off his bat thanks to his bat speed and he has more power than one would expect. His solid speed plays up because he has very good instincts on the basepaths.”

James Paxton

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 61
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 74

The Mariners’ last prospect on the list is LHP James Paxton, another member of the Big Four and the oldest of this group at 24 years old. He has two seasons of Double-A ball under his belt: from 2011 to 2012, his ERA jumped from 1.85 in 39.0 IP to 3.05 over his first full season of 106.1 IP. In 21 starts, he struck out 110 batters of 453 and allowed just 5 home runs to 54 walks.

An early report from Project Prospect projects Paxton as one of the Mariners’ regulars in the near future: “Paxton is raw for his age but he is also a rare talent. If he is able to harness his raw stuff, he could wind up being a No. 1-2 caliber starter and be a important part of a great future Mariners rotation. He could force his way up in 2012, but 2013 is a reasonable time to expect him to solidify himself as a big leaguer.”

Who do you want to see called up to Seattle in 2013?

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Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects (according to JJ)

The M’s have one of the best farm systems in the league. Jack and company have done a tremendous job of stocking the farm system with tons of young talent. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a great success rate with the recent young prospects that have made their way to the minors. And while some of those guys were brought up in another system, it still might suggest that there is a problem with player development at the higher levels. But that’s a bridge we will cross when we get there. For now, let’s enjoy the immensely talented farm that Seattle boasts, while I rank said players into my own personal top 10 for the upcoming season.

 

1) Mike Zunino, 21, C
2012 stats: .360/.447/.689 — .484 wOBA — 216 wRC+ — 13 HR in 44 games

I am a huge fan of Zunino and think he is going to be a big time player in this league. By most accounts he is already above average defensively, and from what we saw last year, pretty darn good with the stick too. If he continues to develop, there’s a chance we see him this year. If all goes well, we could be looking at a .290/.360/.480 type of player at a very defensive minded position.

2) Taijuan Walker, 20, RHP
2012 stats: 4.69 ERA — 4.04 FIP — 8.39 K/9 — 3.55 BB/9 — 0.85 HR/9 — 126.2 IP

Walker has all the upside in the world, and the makings of a future top of the rotation pitcher. He would have been my #1, but he had an underwhelming season last year, as seen in the stats above. But due to his age and past performance (2.89 ERA, 2.70 FIP in A ball last year) I am not worried at all about Walker. I look forward to having him behind Felix for years to come, and am happy that Upton nixed the deal and that Walker is still here. If he bounces back and doesn’t flame out, I think we are looking at #2, maybe even #1 caliber pitcher in the future.

3) Danny Hultzen, 23, LHP
2012 stats: AA: 1.19 ERA — 2.84 FIP — 9.44 K/9 — 3.82 BB/9 — 0.24 HR/9 — 75 IP
AAA: 5.92 ERA —  4.29 FIP — 10.54 K/9 — 7.95 BB/9 —  0.37 HR/9 — 48.2 IP

Hultzen, while lacking the upside of Walker, looks like he should be a very solid pitcher at the major league level. He was dominant in AA last year, before moving up to AAA and having some control problems. I think the control issues were mainly due to fatigue, since Hultzen had never pitched that much in one year. He was still striking guys out in bunches, and not giving up too many homers. I think he is a very safe bet to be a great #3 or good #2 pitcher in the MLB.

4) James Paxton, 24, LHP
2012 stats: 3.05 ERA — 3.29 FIP — 9.31 K/9 — 4.57 BB/9 — 0.42 HR/9 — 106.1 IP

Paxton is the oldest and least talked about of the top M’s pitching prospects, but he may be one of the more talented. He brings crazy heat for a lefty (95+), and features a dirty hook. Those are both great things to build a career on. What’s holding him back is his control issues, and lack of a solid third offering. He has a career 4.30 BB/9 in the minors, which FanGraphs says in between below average and poor. As for the third pitch, according to ProjectProspect, “Paxton has a changeup. That’s about the extent of the pitches merits.” Looks as though he will need to improve his third pitch to find success. If he does that, he could be a solid #3 starter in the bigs. If not, we should still see a good lefty reliever.

5) Brad Miller, 23, SS
2012 stats: A: .337/.409/.522 — .406 wOBA — 142 wRC+ — 11 HR in 97 games
AA: .320/.406/.476 — .407 wOBA — 151 wRC+ — 4 HR in 40 games

This rank might come as a surprise to some people, as most think Nick Franklin is the superior player. But I personally think Miller is the better prospect. He played great in his first full year split between A and AA. Although brief, his time in AA showed me that he wasn’t merely a High Desert mirage. He is an on-base machine, and that’s the kind of thing that tends to stick around. Of course there’s always a chance that he doesn’t reproduce those numbers. But for some reason, I still think he will be superior to Franklin. Both have concerns about their defense, but Miller’s seem to be rooted in his hands, as opposed to his physical limitations like Franklin. Reports say Miller will occasionally boot the easy grounders, but has good range and a solid arm. The big knock on him is his age, as he is already 23 and only going into his 2nd season, which is a year older than Franklin. Sometimes you see older guys taking advantage of younger competition, but I think Miller is for real, and that he can be a .280/.345/.450 guy at shortstop for the M’s in the not too distant future.

6) Nick Franklin, 21, SS/2B
2012 stats: AA: .322/.394/.502 — .408 wOBA — 151 wRC+ — 4 HR in 57 games
AAA: .240/.306/.412  – .317 wOBA — 83 wRC+ — 7 HR in 64 games

Franklin is lower on my list than most, and that’s mainly due to a couple things. One, I think Miller is better, thus Franklin goes behind him. And two, I am losing faith in his ability to play short stop. He is beginning to see more and more time at 2nd, and spent most of his time there in the AFL. Unlike Miller, his defensive problems seem to stem from his lack of range and things of that nature. Those are more likely to force a move from short than having slightly clunky hands. It is also much harder to improve physical limitations like that than mechanical issues. Don’t get me wrong, Franklin should be a solid player in the bigs. I just worry that his future is as a decent to good second baseman, rather than a good to great short stop. He should have a solid bat, but a solid bat at shortstop is a lot more valuable than it is at 2nd. Nonetheless, if he starts hitting again, we, or a team we trade him to, could be looking at a .280/.340/.440 middle infielder.

7) Brandon Maurer, 22, RHP
2012 stats: 3.20 ERA — 3.05 FIP — 7.65 K/9 — 3.14 BB/9 — 0.26 HR/9 — 137.2 IP

Maurer (pronounced like Joe Mauer) had a breakout season last year at Double-A Jackson after being fairly average before that. Maurer has a solid pitchers body at 6’5″, 200 pounds, which is always a plus. From what I have seen he has solid, but not overpowering stuff like you might expect from someone his size. Most reports have him around 92-94, and topping out at about 96, with three other offerings- curve, change and slider. The curve seems to be the best of them, followed by the slider and then the change. But all seem to be at least average, which is a very good sign. Secondary pitchers are usually what holds young pitchers back. Having 3, or even better 4, useful pitches is the difference between a talented guy who never made it, and a guy with a major-league future. And if all that isn’t enough, Maurer had a 2.40 ERA over his last ten starts. If he can build on that out of the gate next year and prove he is for real, yo may be able to add  another #3, or even #2 starter to the list. Right now, he looks like at least a #4, and could soften the blow if one of the Big 3 are moved.

8) Stefen Romero, 24, 2B/3B
2012 stats: A+: .357/.391/.581 — .415 wOBA — 147 wRC+ — 11 HR
AA: .347/.392/.620 — .449 wOBA — 179 wRC+ — 12 HR

Romero continued his trend of exceeding expectations last year, and won Mariner’s Minor League Player of the Year. Very few people expected him to hit as well as he has, seeing as he was a 12th rounder out of Oregon State, but he has proven all of them wrong. Much like Miller, he hit better in AA than he did in A+, proving that he wasn’t just a High Desert mirage. Most reports say he has solid range at 2nd base, which is surprising from a guy who is 6’3″ 225 pounds. He has also seen time at third, and in the outfield, where I think he will be long term. He probably wouldn’t be more than average at 2nd anyway, but even so, he is blocked by Ackley, and Franklin/Miller. He is also blocked at third by Kyle Seager. That, combined with the fact that this organization has a lot of depth at those spots, tells me Romero should be moved to a corner outfield spot. As of now, his bat fits just fine, and the organization lacks a reliable outfield prospect. Also like Miller, he was old for his level, which can skew the numbers, and presents a chance that he becomes the next Vinnie Catricala. But, I talked to Seattle Clubhouse’s Rick Randall, and he said that Romero has better bat speed, and he isn’t worried about him flaming out, so I will take his word for it. If Romero moves to the outfield, and continues to hit the way he has been this year in AAA, we could be looking at the M’s future left fielder, and a .280/.340/.480 line year in and year out. Needless to say, I am a big fan of Romero as well, and wish I could have put him higher on the list. Just goes to show you how deep this system is.

9) Victor Sanchez, 18, RHP
2012 stats: 3.18 ERA — 3.65 FIP — 7.31 K/9 — 2.86 BB/9 — 0.53 HR/9 — 85 IP

Sanchez was signed out of Venezuela in 2011 at 16 years old, and had his first taste of pro ball last year at 17. He made 15 starts in Everett, and had a solid year. He is listed at about 6’0″ and 250 pounds, which is massive for someone so young. There are positives and negatives about his size. Its good because he is built well, which should make for durability and strength. The downside is that it  doesn’t leave a lot of room for growth. There aren’t a ton of reports on him yet as he has only played one year here, and it was in short-season A ball. But from what I have seen, he has a low 90′s fastball and a slider as his go to pitches. You would want/expect someone so big to throw a little harder, and I am sure he will eventually. He may never be a mid-upper 90′s guy, but hopefully he can get it up to the lower-mid 90′s. At this point it is a wait and see situation with him, but he has already had more success than most international signings do, and that’s a good sign .

10) Carter Capps, 22, RHP
2012 MLB stats: 3.96 ERA — 2.17 FIP — 3.47 xFIP — 10.08 K/9 — 3.96 BB/9 — 25 IP

Capps is a hard throwing reliever who was able to fly through both AA and AAA last year, and make 18 appearances for the big club last year. He can hit triple digits on occasion, and is consistently in the high 90′s. He also throws a harder breaking ball, either a slider or a cutter. He was drafted as a starter, but it looks like he will be a back-of-the-pen guy going forward, and that’s probably where he best fits. He put up solid numbers in the minors also, including a 1.29 ERA and 1.63 FIP in AA last year. Capps looks like he should be a reliable bullpen arm for the future, and will probably be a set-up guy for Tom Wilhelmsen this year. If his secondary pitches develop, he should be able to be a closer in the future.

 

Well, there you have it. Whether you agree with my list or not, its obvious that this is one of the best systems in the league, and should make for a good future in Seattle.

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Five Things I’m Thankful For

May 23, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Alex Liddi (16) is interviewed after getting a baseball hat full of shaving cream after the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Texas 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! To honor this wonderful day, I would like to metaphorically raise my glass to five wonderful events from this last year of Mariner baseball.

1.) The Parting of “Friends”

Note that “friends” is in quotation marks. I did not shed a single tear between the release of Chone Figgins or the trades of Ichiro and Brandon League. Figgins was an absolute disaster with the Mariners, and I feel relieved to know that I will never have to look at him wear a Seattle Mariner uniform again.

Ichiro did a lot of good things for the Mariner organization and the city of Seattle during his stint here, but it was time for him to go. He was no longer contributing to the team’s success and he seemed to cast a negative spell over the locker room. Following Ichiro’s departure, the team excelled which proved that parting with him was the right decision.

Although his stats were not terrible, Brandon League gave every Mariner fan a heart attack every time he stepped on the mound. There was no such thing as a save without suspense for League, and most were glad to see him sent to Los Angeles were he can no longer scare us. The fact that we got a few decent prospects in return was just the icing on the cake.

I am very thankful that each of those players are no longer Seattle Mariners.

2.) The Making of History

On August fifteenth, King Felix threw the 23rd perfect game in baseball history. All of us got to witness history and one of the finest moments in Mariner history. His performance that afternoon was absolutely masterful and the fan reaction was very exciting as well. For Felix’ following start, Safeco Field filled with fans, and the King’s court was spread throughout the whole stadium. I hadn’t seen that much energy in Safeco in almost a decade. The fan base needed the boost that the perfect game gave, and I’m sure all of us are thankful that Felix achieved perfection that day.

3.) The Coming of New Players

This year’s MLB Draft was very productive for the Mariners. The third overall pick, Mike Zunino, had a phenomenal first year in the minor leagues. His .538 wOBA and 234 wRC+ in short season Everett confirmed his status as a prospect and he is now ranked the 44th best prospect in baseball and 3rd best catching prospect. There were several other good selections made in the draft. Names like Joe DeCarlo, Tyler Pike, Patrick Kivlehan, Chris Taylor, and Timothy Lopes have already started to gain attention just months after being drafted by Seattle.

4.) The Stadium Alterations

The fences are moving in! This has been an idea tossed around by Mariner fans for years. While there are pros and cons to the change, the Seattle offense which has been at the bottom of the league for years, will certainly get some help from the shorter fences, but the pitching staff will struggle more. However, considering the strong future of the pitching staff, I feel confident that we will continue to have a solid staff and still get more run production from the batters. The smaller field also allows Seattle to pursue and attract top free agent bats. This was a very good all-around move for the organization.

5.) The Astros

Tired of being in the division cellar? At least for now, the Marines will no longer be the worst team in the AL West with the Astros around. Having the 107-loss Astros in the west will also mean that Seattle will have more games against the poor Houston team and far less against the three good teams in the division.

Overall, there has been a lot to be thankful for over the past year, and I hope that we will have many more things to express our gratefulness for in a year from now.

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Five Things I’m Thankful for From 2012

Happy belated Thanksgiving to all of you! To honor the wonderful day (that passed a few days ago), I would like to metaphorically raise my glass to five wonderful events from this last year of Mariner baseball.

The Parting of “Friends”

Figgins in all of his glory. Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Note that “friends” is in quotation marks. I did not shed a single tear between the release of Chone Figgins or the trades of Ichiro and Brandon League. Figgins was an absolute disaster with the Mariners, and I feel relieved to know that I will never have to look at him wear a Seattle Mariner uniform again.

Ichiro did a lot of good things for the Mariner organization and the city of Seattle during his stint here, but it was time for him to go. He was no longer contributing to the team’s success and he seemed to cast a negative spell over the locker room. Following Ichiro’s departure, the team excelled which proved that parting with him was the right decision.

Although his stats were not terrible, Brandon League gave every Mariner fan a heart attack every time he stepped on the mound. There was no such thing as a save without suspense for League, and most were glad to see him sent to Los Angeles were he can no longer scare us. The fact that we got a few decent prospects in return was just the icing on the cake.

I am very thankful that each of those players are no longer Seattle Mariners.

The Making of History

On August fifteenth, King Felix threw the 23rd perfect game in baseball history. All of us got to witness history and one of the finest moments in Mariner history. His performance that afternoon was absolutely masterful and the fan reaction was very exciting as well. For Felix’ following start, Safeco Field filled with fans, and the King’s court was spread throughout the whole stadium. I hadn’t seen that much energy in Safeco in almost a decade. The fan base needed the boost that the perfect game gave, and I’m sure all of us are thankful that Felix achieved perfection that day.

The Coming of New Players

This year’s MLB Draft was very productive for the Mariners. The third overall pick, Mike Zunino, had a phenomenal first year in the minor leagues. His .538 wOBA and 234 wRC+ in short season Everett confirmed his status as a prospect and he is now ranked the 44th best prospect in baseball and 3rd best catching prospect. There were several other good selections made in the draft. Names like Joe DeCarlo, Tyler Pike, Patrick Kivlehan, Chris Taylor, and Timothy Lopes have already started to gain attention just months after being drafted by Seattle.

The Stadium Alterations

The fences are moving in! This has been an idea tossed around by Mariner fans for years. While there are pros and cons to the change, the Seattle offense which has been at the bottom of the league for years, will certainly get some help from the shorter fences, but the pitching staff will struggle more. However, considering the strong future of the pitching staff, I feel confident that we will continue to have a solid staff and still get more run production from the batters. The smaller field also allows Seattle to pursue and attract top free agent bats. This was a very good all-around move for the organization.

The Astros

Tired of being in the division cellar? At least for now, the Marines will no longer be the worst team in the AL West with the Astros around. Having the 107-loss Astros in the west will also mean that Seattle will have more games against the poor Houston team and far less against the three good teams in the division.

Overall, there has been a lot to be thankful for over the past year, and I hope that we will have many more things to express our gratefulness for in a year from now.

 


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The Success of Past Prospects

Ryan Anderson, Ryan Christianson, Chris Snelling, Antonio Perez, Clint Nageotte, Jose Lopez, Travis Blackley, Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, Phillippe Aumont, Greg Halman, and Adam Moore. I’m guessing that you have heard some of those names, and I’m guessing you have never heard quite a few of those names. Is this just a random list of players? NO. It’s a list of past Seattle Mariner prospects that made Baseball America’s top 100 Prospect list.

That’s right, these names were once thought to be the future stars of the Mariner organization, yet as we know, none of them really worked out. Sure, Lopez had a few good years before dropping off the face of the earth, and a few other guys have bounced around from team to team and from AAA to the majors for years, but none of them have actually had good major league careers.

As fans, we often look at promising young players and simply expect them to fulfill their potential. I know that I am quite guilty of this. In some of my past articles, I have discussed prospects as if they were sure things, while in reality they are a long ways from being major league caliber players.

In this article, I am going to look at the prospects that we have in our system that have made the 2012 Baseball America top 100 prospects list, and then give a list of past prospects of the same position that have been at similar ranks on past Baseball America lists. This will hopefully put in perspective just how unreliable prospects truly are.

I admit, this is not a perfect analysis of how likely our current prospects are to make the majors, but it will still give a broad comparison to past players that you can use.

The Mariners to make the 2012 list were Jesus Montero (6th), Taijuan Walker (20th), Danny Hultzen (21st), James Paxton (52nd), and Nick Franklin (77th).

Jesus Montero (6th)

We know that Jesus has already made the majors, but that doesn’t mean that he will have long-term success there. Here is a list of catchers who cracked the top 20 from 2010 to 2000.

  • Buster Posey (2010, 2009)
  • Carlos Santana (2010)
  • Matt Wieters (2009, 2008)
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2006)
  • Joe Mauer (2005, 2004, 2003, 2002)
  • Victor Martinez (2003)

As you can see from this list, not many catchers have been ranked in the top 20, but the ones that have made it that high have experienced success. That’s pretty encouraging for the future of Jesus.

Taijuan Walker (20th)

I will include all right-handed prospects that ranked from 15th to 30th.

  • Jeremy Hellickson (2010)
  • Casey Kelly (2010)
  • Kyle Drabek (2010)
  • Jacob Turner (2010)
  • Rick Porcello (2009, 2008)
  • Chris Tillman (2009) Note: The Mariners sent Tillman along with Adam Jones to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard Trade.
  • Jerrod Parker (2009)
  • Wade Davis (2008)
  • Nick Adenhart (2008) Note: Adenhart was tragically killed in a car crash after just four major league appearances.
  • Adam Miller (2008, 2007, 2005)
  • Yovani Gallardo (2007)
  • Mike Pelfrey (2007)
  • Matt Garza (2007)
  • Bobby Jenks (2006)
  • Chad Billingsley (2005)
  • Jeff Niemann (2005)
  • Jose Capellan (2005)
  • Edwin Jackson (2005)
  • Dustin McGowan (2004)
  • Gavin Floyd (2004)
  • Chin-Hui Tsao (2004, 2001)
  • Angel Guzman (2004)
  • Ervin Santana (2004)
  • King Felix. Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

    Felix Hernandez (2004)

  • Jeremy Bonderman (2003)
  • Adam Wainwright (2003)
  • John VanBenschoten (2003)
  • Rafael Soriano (2003, 2002)
  • Rich Harden (2003)
  • Dennis Tankersley (2002)
  • Nick Neugebauer (2002)
  • Jerome Williams (2002, 2001)
  • Jon Rauch (2002)
  • Jake Peavy (2002)
  • Boof Bonser (2002)
  • Juan Cruz (2001)
  • Bobby Bradley (2001)
  • Donny Bridges (2001)
  • Matt Belisle (2001)
  • Kurt Ainsworth (2001)
  • Josh Becket (2000)
  • A.J. Burnett (2000)
  • Brad Penny (2000)
  • Tony Armas (2000)
  • Ramon Ortiz (2000)
  • Francisco Cordero (2000)

This is a very large and diverse list of pitchers. Some of these guys, such as Gallardo, King Felix, and Wainwright are some of the best pitchers in baseball. On the other hand, some of these guys never did anything in a major league uniform. Most of them, however, have had decent major league stints which is encouraging.

Danny Hultzen (21st)

Here are all of the lefty pitchers from 2010 to 2000 that ranged from 15th to 30th on the Baseball America list.

  • Martin Perez (2010)
  • Aroldis Chapman (2010)
  • Tyler Matzek  (2010)
  • Multiple exposure image of Clayton Kershaw. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

    Brian Matusz (2009)

  • Jake McGee (2008)
  • Gio Gonzalez (2008)
  • Clayton Kershaw (2007)
  • Franklin Morales (2007)
  • Jon Lester (2006)
  • Jeff Francis (2005)
  • Mike Hinckley (2005)
  • Cole Hamels (2004)
  • Sean Burnett (2003)
  • Cliff Lee (2003)
  • Carlos Hernandez (2002)
  • Ty Howington (2002)
  • Chris George (2001)
  • Matt Riley (2000)
  • Wilfredo Rodriguez (2000)  Note: Wilfredo may be the coolest name ever.

Wow, that is a very strange list. Nearly all of these guys fall into one of two categories: 1) stud 2) total bust. Honestly though, can anyone say that they have heard a baseball player with a cooler name than Wilfredo? If you have, please put it in the comment section below.

James Paxton (52nd)

All lefty pitchers that have placed between 45th and 60th on the Baseball America lists will be included in this list.

  • Casey Crosby (2010)
  • John Danks. Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

    Ross Detwiler (2008)

  • Donald Veal (2007)
  • Chuck Lofgren (2007)
  • John Danks (2007, 2006, 2005)
  • Troy Patton (2007)
  • Jonathan Sanchez (2007)
  • Adam Loewen (2006)
  • Jeremy Sowers (2006)
  • Scott Elbert (2006)
  • Justin Jones (2004)
  • Mike Hinckley (2004)
  • Andy Sisco (2003)
  • Mike Gosling (2003)
  • Mario Ramos (2002)
  • Jimmy Gobble (2002)
  • Mark Phillips (2002)
  • Joe Torres (2001)
  • Wilfredo Rodriguez (2001)
  • Mike Bynum (2001)
  • Ed Yarnall (2001)
  • C.C. Sabathia (2001)

Well that list of players is downright disturbing, if not devastating. If you can honestly say that you have heard of over half of the names on this list, then I am impressed. Besides Sabathia who has had a great career, John Danks and Jonathan Sanchez who have had their ups and downs, and Wilfredo Rodriguez who has the best name in baseball history, there aren’t many bright spots on that list. This is not to say that James Paxton won’t be a good pitcher, but history certainly doesn’t seem to be in his favor.

Nick Franklin (77th)

I will include both shortstops and second baseman in this list, since it is unclear where Franklin will end up. All prospects that were place from 70th to 85th on past prospect rankings will be included in this list.

  • Jiovanni Mier (2010)
  • Adrian Cardenas (2009, 2008)
  • Reid Brignac (2009)
  • Jed Lowrie (2008)

Note: Carlos Triunfel was ranked 89th on the 2009 list and 62nd on the 2008 list.

  • Alberto Callaspo (2007, 2004)

Note: Current Pirates second baseman, Neil Walker was placed at 74th on the 2007 rankings, but he was listed as a third baseman. He was also listed as 81st in 2005, but his position was catcher that year.

  • Orlando Hudson who, like Nick Franklin, is a switch hitter. Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

    Dustin Pedroia (2006)

  • Cliff Pennington (2006)
  • Joaquin Arias (2005)
  • Brandon Wood (2005)
  • Jose Lopez (2004)
  • Chase Utley (2003)
  • Jake Gautreau (2002)
  • Orlando Hudson (2002)
  • Luis Montanez (2001)
  • Marcus Giles (2000)
  • Adam Everett (2000)

Note: Carlos Guillen was ranked 73rd on the 2000 list, but was posted as a 3rd baseman. However, Guillen played every infield position throughout his career.

This list has a couple studs scattered across a sea of busts. A lot of these middle infielders that didn’t work out never really made the majors, but since Franklin is already knocking on the door, that’s seems to bode well for him avoiding the same fate.

Mike Zunino

Mike Zunino was not a Mariner when the 2012 top prospect list was released by Baseball America, but MLB.com released an updated top prospect list in which Zunino ranked 44th. Therefore, I will list past catching prospects that ranked from 35th to 50th on Baseball America lists.

  • Derek Norris (2010)
  • J.P. Arencibia. Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

    Jason Castro (2010)

  • Jesus Montero (2009)
  • J.P. Arencibia (2009)
  • Jeff Clement (2008)
  • Geovany Soto (2008)
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2007)
  • Russell Martin (2006)
  • Neil Walker (2006)
  • Brian McCann (2005)
  • Dioner Navarro (2004)
  • Guillermo Quiroz (2004) Note: Quiroz was in the Mariner organization, but not on the 40-man roster, until being traded for cash in September.
  • Jeff Mathis (2003)
  • Josh Phelps (2002)
  • J.R. House (2002)
  • Joe Buck (2002)
  • Ben Patrick (2000)
  • Matt LeCroy (2000)
  • Jayson Werth (2000) Note: This IS the same Jayson Werth that is now a star outfielder for the Nationals.
  • Steve Lomasney (2000)

The recent prospect to made this list have experienced quite a bit of success while the members of older lists struggled more. Hopefully this trend will benefit Zunino.

My purpose for this article was not to discourage your hope in our future, but to simply give some perspective of just how unpredictable these young prospects can be. As fans, we need to make sure we aren’t counting our eggs before they hatch and basing our future on kids that may or may not work out.


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Arizona Fall League Mariners

June 9, 2012; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators catcher Mike Zunino leads off second base during game one of the Gainesville super regional at McKethan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Foldy-US PRESSWIRE

Welcome to the 2012 Arizona Fall League.

While the Mariners rest on the laurels of a semi-successful rebuilding season, select representatives from Seattle’s minor league affiliates battle for supremacy in MLB’s annual offseason league.

Along with notable prospects and minor leaguers from the Twins, Phillies, Padres, and newly-eliminated Reds, are eight of the Mariners’ finest:

RHP Logan Bawcom
RHP Carson Smith
LHP James Paxton
LHP Bobby LaFromboise
C Mike Zunino
3B Vinnie Catricala
3B Stefen Romero
SS Nick Franklin

Throughout the AFL’s brief season, we’ll bring you periodic updates as these promising players refine their techniques and, hopefully, jostle their way to the top of the AFL Rising Stars’ roster in November. Here’s a brief look at Week 1.

Current record: 2-2

Top player: Southpaw Bobby LaFromboise kicked off the Peoria Javelinas’ season with two scoreless performances, earning a hold in a 5-2 win over Surprise Saguaros in Game 1. He tossed 2.1 innings with a walk and three strikeouts, seeing 51.82% of his pitches fall for strikes.

Honorable mention: Mike Zunino, reputed backstop who swiftly ascended the rungs of the Mariners’ system this season, saw two starts this week. As with any sample size (although the entire AFL does little more than hint at the potential these players carry), his contributions are fairly insignificant so far: in eight at-bats, he served up an RBI single, ground into a double play, and gunned down a runner at second.

For more information on the Peoria Javelinas and upcoming Arizona Fall League match-ups, follow @MLBazFallLeague on Twitter or swing by the official website.


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Seattle’s Future at Catcher

The Mariners are officially out of the playoff hunt, so now that I can stop focusing on this year, I am going to start focusing on the future.

Over the next few days and weeks, I am going to take a look at the future of each position for the Mariners. When I use the term “future,” I am searching for a franchise player who will take over the position and stay for some time. To start my series of articles, I will go behind the dish.

The current catchers on roster are Miguel Olivo, John Jaso, and Jesus Montero. Olivo will likely leave Seattle after the season and Jaso and Montero will remain.

Montero has done a better job than I expected him to when the season began, but he still isn’t going to be a catcher in the

Jesus Montero doing catcher drills. Credit: Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

long term. His bat, defense, and value all point towards a career at first base or DH.

Jaso has also had a break out year, but I don’t see him being a guy that will be behind the dish 130 games a year for the next decade.

In the minor leagues, the Mariners have guys including

Brandon Bantz, Jesus Sucre, Ralph Henriquez, Jack Marder, John Hicks, Steven Baron, Mike Zunino, Marcus Littlewood, and Tyler Marlette.

Out of these names, the most likely guy to be a big league catcher is certainly the third overall pick in the 2012 draft, Mike Zunino. The Florida product has steamrolled pitching in A- and AA in his first two months of professional baseball. Before being promoted to AA Jackson, Zunino posted a 1.210 OPS in 29 games at A- Everett.

In Jackson, his production has hardly faltered. After 15 games, he boasts a line of .333/.386/.588 and also three homeruns and four doubles. These stats do not include his astounding performance in the AA playoffs. Zunino is certainly the catcher of the future for the Mariners, the question is when he will be ready to start everyday in Seattle.

Considering the rate that Zunino has accelerated through the farm system, I believe that it is realistic to expect to see him in the MLB next year. If he has a great spring training, Zunino could find himself on the opening day roster, although that would be a bit of a stretch. At the latest, Zunino should be a September call-up in 2013.

Assuming that the Florida product is the long-term solution for catcher that Mariners are searching for, the biggest problem is who will fill the catcher role for the Mariners until Zunino gets there. The John Jaso/Jesus Montero combination should do an adequate job of filling this void until Zunino is capable of replacing them.

As for other options in the minor leagues, none of the other names have a ceiling that is even on the same level as Zunino. Although not quite the same as Zunino, Jack Marder is another good catching prospect the organization. In High Desert this year, he hit .360 with a 1.008 OPS. High Desert teammate, John Hicks, had 49 extra base hits in 121 games.  While it’s true that nearly everyone hits well in the California League, don’t entirely write off their performances. Both of those guys could get a look in the MLB if by some disaster Zunino is hit by a meteor or by a plane and is unable to play.

I would bet on Mike Zunino being Seattle’s everyday catcher for a long time, but keep the other names in mind just in case.


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Zunino Signs, Seattle Overspends On Draft

As predicted, the Mariners cup hath runneth over. The $4 million administered to Zunino pushed Seattle over the reccomended pool for the top ten picks. The Zunino signing pushes Seattle’s budget into the red by $36,600, which is just the numerical value for now. 8th round selection, Nick Halamandaris, still remains unsigned and while there has been no inclination to his desire to sign a contract, a signing will likley push Seattle even further into debt and further elevating the 75% tax penalties.

All things considered, $27,450 can be found underneath the proverbial couch cushion that is the Seattle Mariners bank funds, so even though they will inccur a pentalty next season, in the grand scheme of things this will have little to no effect on the 2013 draft. This tax is chump change.

Zunino will start the season in Everett for the Aquasox, which is a little lower than most expected. If he proves capable with the bat, he won’t stay long and figures to move up to Clinton and High Desert if not this season, next.

As previously stated, Zunino will move as quickly as his bat will carry him, his defense isn’t going to need much work, though I suppose he’ll be receiving a whole new plethora of talent behind the plate. Zunino will be exposed to a new level of talent and there will be a learning curve when it comes to catching what will be a whole new breed of breaking pitches for him. Regardless, there has been nothing but rave reviews regarding his leadership and defense, so it shouldn’t take too long for the organizations newest catcher to get a handle on things. How well Zunino will handle pro pitching has yet to be seen, but we shouldn’t have to wait much longer to find out.

Whether you liked the pick or not, Zunino is now a Mariner, and now we all have to wish him the best. Seattle is now the proud owner of a defensive first catcher, who isn’t worthless at the plate and that has become a rare breed these days. The Mariners may have overspend on the class this year, but they have found a system that nearly works. The fund system for the top 10 picks has now had a flaw exposed. If Seattle can work out the kinks of their system on future draft classes, this new CBA won’t have such a massive effect on a teams ability to acquire talent in the draft, though the overall talent of future drafts is still likely to suffer.

 


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Mike Zunino To Wear Mariner Blue Soon Enough

I recently went into detail on the Mariners spending habits throughout the 2012 draft. Have they found a way to defeat this new system, has the level of talent (or lack thereof) resulted in a draft class where they could be allowed to spend less on the first overall pick and more on picks below, or have the Mariners just over extended themselves and will incure the resulting penalties next season? The answer has yet to be seen, but regardless the answer is coming soon.

According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle times, the Mariners are close to reaching a deal with first overall selection Mike Zunino. No word on the amount, but the process should be finished around July.

Talks have been held up due to Zunino’s participation in the college playoffs and well be held up afterwards due to several award ceremonies. Once the Mariners have reeled in their first overall pick, Zunino figures to start his major league career off with the Mavericks. This figures to be the softest landing spot and a location where he can build some early confidence. As for his ascension through the system, that is going to be driven by his offensive production. Zunino’s defensive game doesn’t figure to need much fine tuning so once he gets the hang of his level offensively, the Mariners will likely move him along to his next challenge.

As Zunino joins a system full of talented catchers, and immediately jumps to the top of the list. Marder, Hicks, and Marlette will likely move Zunino in the depth chart and could develop into trade pieces, but probably not right away. This doesn’t exactly muddy up the situation at the big league level either. As Olivo departs the organization, and Montero transitions out of the position (First Base is looking awfully good right now), the team will have a clear slot to insert the organizations newest catcher. Even in the event that it takes some time for reach the bigs, the Mariners have a decent stop gap is Jaso and can still use Montero until he is ready.

I am anxious to see the salary figure once the signing is official. The Mariners have done well to turn a draft low on talent into something respectable. Zunino may not be the sleekest, shiny pick that everyone dreamed of, but he is still the metephorical cherry on top of a surprisingly deep draft class for Seattle.

A premature welcome to the Emerald City Mike.


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Seattle Running Low On Draft Funds

As Bud Selig reached into his 1970′s style desert brown jacket, reaching for the high grade fountain pen that would eventually mark upon baseball’s new CBA, he was unknowingly altering the methods of numerous organizations and how they go about … [visit site to read more]


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So The Mariners Surprise No One–Select Zunino

As it turns out, the Mariners did the unexpected… by doing the expected.

By selecting the Gainesville Gator, Seattle did exactly what 99% of mock drafts and experts expected them to do. I’m sure the Mariners probably preferred Buxton or Correa, … [visit site to read more]


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First Round Pick: Mike Zunino

Mike Zunino

Catcher from the University of Florida

21 years old

Bats/ Throws R/R

6’1” 215 pounds

College Stats: .316 batting average, .388 OBP, 18 homeruns, 60 ribs

Sodo Mojo Scouting Report visit site to read more]


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Draft 2012: Mike Zunino

Age: 21

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height: 6? 2?

Weight: 220

Bat: Hitting above .300 in the Majors is probably a stretch, but in his prime it could certainly … [visit site to read more]


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