Given that outside of the Matt Flynn trade it’s pretty quiet around here, I thought I would embark on something of a thought experiment to help pass the time. It’s often said that, “every man has his price” and that saying got me thinking, what is Russell Wilson’s price? More specifically, what price would the Seahawks accept to part with Russell Wilson? Not that I would want him to leave, I’m just curious if it would be even remotely possible to trade for him. Wilson is immensely valuable because he is 24, he costs nothing, and he is already a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. I can’t recall when an asset of that caliber has ever been made available which is what makes it such an interesting thought experiment (at least as far as I’m concerned).
The first place to start would be what the Redskins paid for the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 draft that they knew was going to be Robert Griffin III. In order to obtain that pick, the Redskins traded the Rams the 6th overall pick and 38th overall pick in 2012 as well as first round picks in 2013 and 2014. That’s quite the bounty and an interesting starting point but there is absolutely no way Schneider would trade Wilson for a similar package.
Although RGIII was clearly something special, at the time of that trade he had never taken a snap in the NFL let alone performed at an elite level. Russell Wilson has performed at an elite level in the NFL and even won a playoff game in his rookie season. How much more value does Wilson have now than Griffin ? I’d say to start you could add two second round picks to the mix to make it an even three 1st rounders and 2nd rounders. John Schneider is now listening but he’s not really paying attention. So a quarterback desperate team decides they’ll do one more year of forking over their high draft picks, now is trading Wilson worth thinking about? Now we’re talking about four 1st rounders and four 2nd rounders. Is that enough?
Given that an unprecedented draft bounty is being discussed, the Seahawks would have to seriously consider it. Russell Wilson is a franchise player but with that many picks Seattle could create a dynasty. The problem is that they are going for it this year and as a result need some kind of quarterback in return. Pete Carroll believes in the point-guard role player quarterback so conceivably that he wouldn’t think this fictional quarterback needs to be particularly good for his team to succeed, merely good enough. If we look at teams drafting near the top of the draft we can put together these ridiculous hypothetical packages including quarterbacks that might be able to manage games for the 2013 Seahawks, in Pete Carrolls view.
#1: Jaguars offer 2nd overall and 33rd overall picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round picks in 2014,2015 and 2016 as well as QB Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert.
This is an interesting thought because the picks this year are so high but neither quarterbacks are good enough that the Seahawks could be confident in winning in 2013, unless Carroll somehow unleashed Gabbert’s latent potential. However, if Schneider didn’t think Henne or Gabbert was the answer he could draft Geno Smith 2nd overall. If you really liked Geno Smith then this deal would be worth considering, but it is such a monumental risk for both sides that of course it would never happen.
#2: Bills offer 8th overall and 41st overall picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round picks in 2014, 2015 and 2016 as well as QB Tarvaris Jackson.
The picks aren’t nearly as good but there is familiarity with Jackson who could likely win with this Seahawks team behind them. The likely inability to get Geno Smith as well as Buffalo’s potential to make a quick turnaround with a quality quarterback and make the future picks less desirable makes this a no-go for John Schneider. If you squinted hard enough (like dangerously hard) you could see the Bills making this offer given their desperation to bring Ralph Wilson a Super Bowl.
#3 Jets offer 9th and 39th overall picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round picks in 2014, 2015, and 2016 as well as QB Mark Sanchez
Very similar to the Bills deal, and including another QB that Pete Carroll is familiar with in Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is likely worse than Jackson, and while you could argue he has more upside, I wouldn’t. Schneider says no and I don’t think the Jets could get away with attempting something this bold in that market.
No other teams in the top 10 fit the criteria for creating such a package: Browns (no 2nd round pick in 2013), Eagles (have both Michael Vick and Nick Foles), Lions (Matt Stafford), Chiefs (traded for Alex Smith), Raiders (traded for Matt Flynn), Cardinals (traded for Carson Palmer), and Titans (giving Jake Locker a chance).
All in all what we’ve learned here is probably nothing. It’s pretty clear that Russell Wilson is not on the trading block, nor should he be. What I find interesting is that even the starting place for this hypothetical is fairly ridiculous. Trading for Wilson would require the kind of bounty no team would be willing to give because it would be betting it all on one player who could get injured or regress. With that in mind, it seems clear that Wilson is an illiquid asset. It’s kind of cool to think that the Seahawks’ franchise player is so talented and such a good contract value that you actually could not trade him. A counter intuitive thought that is also comforting somehow. Not that it takes a 1,000 words for Seahawks fans to know that the team is in good hands at quarterback. To conclude I will do what Russell Wilson would do and simply say “Go Hawks.”
I’ve spent most of my free time over the past couple days scouting the Jets in preparation for this Sunday’s game. They are a tough team to get a handle on. Some weeks they dominate, in other the get dominated. There are some really wide swings in the quality of their play, making it tough to figure out exactly who they are as a team.
Shonn Greene is an under rated runner, but he’s not used well by the Jets offense. Most of his carries are through the A gaps (between the center and guard); at least twice as many carries there as any other gap. While A gap runs tend to get a couple of yards reliably, it’s also the toughest gap to run through for big gains. It shows up in his stats. He’s averages just over 2 yards per rush in the A gaps, but right at 5 yards per rush in the B gaps (between the guard and offensive tackle). By forcing the runs in the center so often, the Jets are actually hurting their own offensive potential.
The passing game is as bad as advertised. Mark Sanchez has been a mess all season, but he also has very little little to work with. Losing Santonio Holmes means that the Jets have very little to work with on the outside. Rookie Stephen Hill should be good with time, but he’s suffering from the usual rookie WR problems.
Watching the game tape, I was quite surprised by Jeremy Kerley. The 5-9 receiver has a bit of Wes Welker in him, and will offer the Seahawks big challenge to try and cover. Perhaps this was why Walter Thurmond was activated early off the PUP list this week.
The offensive line remains the strength of the Jets offense. Nick Mangold is easily one of the best centers in the NFL, but he is currently hobbled by an ankle injury. There should be some concern for Jets fans with the injury. He simply didn’t look the same last week.
Defensively, the Jets aren’t as good as they think they are. Muhammad Wilkerson has been very good, and Quintin Coples is proving to be a very good compliment on the defensive line. Antonio Cromartie has played well, and he has to with Revis out for the year. Mike Devito, the 3rd member of the D line, is also having a good year.
The problem for the Jets is that the the rest of the defense is a collection of players who lack talent or are severely underperforming. The Jets coaches are forced to scheme up pressure and coverages to make up for the fact that individual players aren’t getting it done. When the schemes work, they win (or lose close games to good teams like the Patriots). When the schemes fail, they get get blown out.
The problem that I see, from a Seahawk’s viewpoint, is that the coaches coming up with these schemes are good at what they do. They find ways to bring pressure in a way that lets a guy come in free, without rushing more than 5 guys. They sell an all-out 8 man blitz then drop everyone off and only bring 2. It works, it’s effective, and it’s tough on young QBs and young offensive linemen.
The last couple days haven’t been good for New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez. First, teammates of his came out and criticized his work ethic and ability. That can never be good. Being called “lazy” is never good for one’s reputation.
Today brought people coming to his defense. First a couple offensive linemen, and then the team owner spoke out on behalf of Sanchez. Normally you’d think that was a good thing, but in this case I don’t really think it is. The Owner’s “He’s the first to arrive and last to leave” defense is already being disputed. People coming to his defense might want to stick to the truth, otherwise it only makes thing worse.
Sanchez is now the center of a divided locker room. The Jets front office must now make changes before next season, or face a year in which the off field squabbles hurt the performance on the field. A divided locker room can only lead to bad things for the franchise.
Or don’t actually. Build him up so someone else can overpay for him. Just don’t expect the Seahawks to move up for Robert Griffin III. While anything is possible, there’s simply too much evidence available that suggests it simply won’t even be considered by the Seahawks.
By now you’ve already read all about John Schneider’s Green Bay background and trade down philosophy. I wont spend much time on that here since it’s already well known and well documented. The one thing I would add on this topic is that there’s no reason why he’d want to give up on this philosophy now. The last 2 drafts have seen Schneider draft pro-bowl level talent late in the draft. Moving back in the first round and getting more picks can only be a good thing when Schneider is the one drafting the players, and he knows it.
The other reason why I don’t see the Seahawks targeting RG3 is that he isn’t the type of quarterback the Seahawks want. Now, before you roll your eyes and point your web browser to another site, let me explain what I mean. … [visit site to read more]
Tags: cam newton, Carson Palmer, football, Individual Prospects, Jake Locker, John David Booty, John Schneider, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, Matt Leinart, mike vick, nfl, NFL Draft, Pete Carroll, robert griffin III, Seahawks, Seattle Seahawks
Yesterday profiled a few late round QB options that the Seahawks might take a stab a at. There are a couple more that I’ll get to eventually, but today I thought it would be a good idea to profile a few QB who I don’t want to see on the Seahawks. Seriously, I’d rather stick with Tarvaris Jackson than see any of these players get time under center in Seattle:
Charlie Whitehurst – Lets face it. I think we’ve all see quite enough of Charlie. I think the Seahawks like what he was physically, and hoped they could teach him the mental aspect of the game. Clearly they were wrong, and I think everyone involved will be happy to see him go away.
Matt Cassel – Cassel lost his job because of injury, but he ultimately lost his job because he wasn’t a franchise QB and the Chiefs want to look into finding someone that is. Orton is the guy in KC as of right now, so Cassel will soon be looking for a new home. He’s nothing more than a league average QB, kinda like Jackson.
Mark Sanchez – It’s rumored that the Jets could make him available and then try and get Peyton Manning from the Colts. While I don’t buy that rumor, I also don’t want to see Sanchez in Seattle. He’s a horribly overrated player who can be really bad at times, and rarely does much to help his team win.
Draft Prospects: … [visit site to read more]
Once again, the Seattle Seahawks have been unable to sign their first draft pick. And again, their largest investment of the offseason will report to training camp late.
Last year, Aaron Curry reported to training camp eight days late. Curry, like Okung, was penciled in as an immediate starter following his top-ten selection in the NFL draft.
And like Okung, Curry’s selection in the first round couldn’t have been at a worse position.
Following Curry’s selection at fourth overall, the New York Jets picked quarterback Mark Sanchez. In June of 2009, Sanchez agreed to a five-year deal worth around $50.5 million with $28 million in guarantees.
Because Curry was drafted ahead of Sanchez, his representatives thought it would be appropriate for him to receive a larger contract.
Quarterbacks, however, always make more money than other positions on the football field. Sanchez received a larger contract than Tyson Jackson, the third overall pick last season. Matt Ryan of Atlanta signed the largest rookie contract of any player in 2008 despite being chosen third overall.
Sanchez was selected one spot after Aaron Curry, which created a dilemma for both sides during negotiations. A perfect storm led to Curry’s absence.
This season, the Seattle Seahawks face a similar dilemma with rookie Russell Okung.
Prior to the Seahawks selecting Okung, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Eric Berry fifth overall. Berry recently signed a six-year, $60 million deal that includes $34 million guaranteed, making him the highest-paid safety in NFL history.
Not bad for a rookie who has never played a down in the league, huh? Okung’s representatives want more.
Despite being chosen one spot later than Berry, Okung wants more compensation. Peter Schaffer, Okung’s agent, is probably thinking that a premier, franchise left tackle should always earn more than a defensive back.
In most cases, he is correct. But the Seattle Seahawks are unlikely to budge and would prefer a slotted salary (Okung earns more than players picked after him but less than those picked before).
In addition to putting a premium on particular positions, there is also a problem with contract length.
Just like the perfect storm that led to Curry’s absence, Okung’s situation seems to be unusually coincidental.
Three of the five players picked in front of Okung have signed six-year deals; the players chosen after Okung have signed five-year deals. Okung is conveniently stuck in the middle.
The Seahawks would obviously prefer a six-year deal, but that means Okung would have to put off free agency for one more year. A longer deal would obviously warrant more guaranteed money.
Ndamukong Suh, drafted second overall, recently signed a five-year deal with the Detroit Lions. This won’t help the Seahawks add another year on Okung’s contract, but it may lead to him reporting to camp sooner.
I’m hopeful Okung and the Seahawks can come to terms soon, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses more time in camp. At this point, it would be great to see the Seahawks get something done by the end of this week.
Until then, I suppose we can look forward to watching more of Mansfield Wrotto at left tackle.
Tags: Aaron Curry, contract, Eric Berry, football, left tackle, Mansfield Wrotto, Mark Sanchez, Ndamukong Suh, nfl, NFL Draft, Peter Schaffer, rookie, Russell Okung, Seahawks, Seattle Seahawks, training camp