Josh Hamilton
In Defense of Alex, Because He Doesn’t Even Need It
It’s come to my attention, via the Internet, that a faction of the Mariners fan base took umbrage with what Alex wrote the other night in the wake of the Josh Hamilton news. I feel compelled to defend him. I don’t know why. Trust me, Alex does not need my defense. I’m pretty little, after all — what could I do if there was an attack? But hey, a lot of unnecessary things are written on the Internet. So, here I go! De-fense!
I don’t agree with everything Alex writes on this web site. He can be pretty brash. I am a little more reserved and pragmatic. Alex swears in his articles on occasion, while I’m not the online-cursing type. In fact, I often censor Alex by substituting words like “poop” when I share his jokes with my Twitter followers. But when he asked me to write for the blog, I was excited. I had secretly hoped he would. I thought it was a nice match because, despite our different approaches, we have an identical, deeply-rooted love for Seattle and its sports teams.
I’m not sure the critics of his last Mariners post understood what he was doing. Do you guys read much? How is that going for you? Let me explain.
You see, Alex encapsulated a feeling. Nothing more. Nothing less. That’s pretty much all he does here at Seattle Sportsnet. He never claims to be right. He only claims to feel. And feelings, as many of us learned in kindergarten, aren’t right or wrong. A feeling just is.
In a nutshell, Alex said, “It sucks how the Mariners make me feel.” Regardless of the Mariners’ effort or intent, or the prudence of their process. The net effect of the Mariners on their fans is that of continual disappointment and frustration, and sometimes anger.
If you read that item about the Mariners and didn’t understand that, you’re not as bright as you think you are. Alex knows exactly what he’s doing. He writes feelings, and he captures moments. And he’s pretty darned good at it.
The new age sports fan is a more educated one. We are armchair general managers. We like to rationalize and think pragmatically about our teams. There is so much information out there, we can see, or think we can see, what’s happening. I am undeniably that guy. I have spreadsheets, dag nabbit. But, hopefully, in all of our pretend planning, fantasizing, and saber-ing, most of us realize we are not actually working for the Mariners.
In the few years I’ve been reading his work, Alex has never fancied himself a reporter, an analyst, or some talking head who bestows his sports wisdom on the masses. His niche is the essence being a fan. A raw, yearning, unbridled fan. That’s his format, at least as I see it.
To not understand Alex is to not understand a fundamental part of being a passionate sports fan — that you love your team so much, so irrationally, that logic flies straight out the window.
It’s why you “love” a professional athlete you may never meet. It’s why you turn your hat inside-out in the ninth inning, when you know in your heart that six runs is too many, against this closer, on this night. It’s why you get a little teary-eyed when some dudes, in some other city you don’t care much about, hoist that World Series trophy every October.
And it’s why, in the face of logic, you feel betrayed by your team when a great baseball player, who you know, deep down, probably never wanted to play ball in your town, doesn’t sign that bazillion dollar piece of paper.
Look, I don’t know that Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln are stupid whoosie-whats who don’t care about us. I’ve never met them. And neither has Alex. But that’s not what is at issue here. What’s at issue here is that, whether they care or not, the Mariners have been really bad at making their most loyal fans feel happy, or cared about, for quite some time now. That’s the truth, no matter how you choose to express it.
And I’m certain that’s what Alex was saying, proudly doused in so many pop metaphors. The Mariners make him feel like (poop).
Am I a homer for Alex? I guess. I think he’s pretty neat. I know good writing when I see it. Bad writing makes me chafe, and it’s all around us.
Am I defending Alex a little bit because I haven’t written for SSN in several months, feel bad about it, and want him to like me? Maybe. We can’t say for sure.
One thing we do know: Alex loves the Mariners, and you’ll probably stop loving them long before he ever does.
All right, I need a shower. I laid it on a pretty thick.
Filed under: Mariners
Tags: Josh Hamilton
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The Mariners Suck
First of all, let me be clear: this isn’t JUST about Josh Hamilton. Sure, the Mariners were rumored to be in the hunt for the services of the 31-year-old outfielder. And yes, they failed miserably in their quest to land him. But come on. Let’s be real here. Did anyone really, truly believe the Mariners had the wherewithal to sign a free agent of Hamilton’s ilk? The most coveted free agent of the 2012-2013 class? No. We didn’t believe it. We might have hoped. We might have prayed. But we didn’t believe. Because we can’t believe. Believing requires faith. And the Seattle Mariners have destroyed ALL our faith in recent years. They are Lindsay Lohan behind the wheel and we, their fans, are reluctant passengers. This will not end well. We know it won’t end well. But we hope and pray that it WILL end well. Ultimately, our hopes and our prayers go unanswered.
The Mariners are murderers of happiness. You wake up one morning full of blissful ignorance, stupidly giddy over nothing at all, and then the team you love with all your foolish, little heart comes and craps on your day with remarkable aplomb. Why do they do that? Why do we let them? These are questions no one has answers to.
This has been going on for years. Decades, even. The M’s have let us down, let us down, and let us down again. We are the wives who watch our husbands come home from work each day, toss their briefcases aside, crack a beer, and sit on the couch in silence, doing nothing at all. They don’t pay attention to us. They don’t acknowledge our existence. They don’t take us nice places. They don’t buy us nice things. There’s no reason for us to be together. We should get a divorce. We should! These are irreconcilable differences. There’s no spark. There’s no zest. There is seemingly nothing. There is just this thing holding us together. This thing you can’t describe, really. It’s not love so much as it’s the hope that love exists. We hope there’s something there. And even as we are disappointed time and time again, we continue to wait for our hopes to be rewarded. We are buffoons.
It’s not the failure itself that bothers us. It’s the way they fail. They fail for lack of trying. It’d be one thing if the Mariners front office was falling short in amazingly spectacular fashion. Throwing millions and millions of dollars at wise investments only to watch each and every one of those investments crash and burn like the Hindenburg. But no. They refuse to put forth much effort at all. They carefully calculate their decisions before f**king them all up. They are beggars who choose. They constantly seem to be in search of the prototypical player. They are the people who shop at Wal-Mart looking for bargains, then bitch and moan when their 99-cent headphones don’t provide Bose quality. They are the fat, ugly bastard living in denial who refuses to date any woman short of Cindy Crawford. It is ridiculous to believe that they can get what they want when what they want apparently does not exist.
They are the girl who has been burned by two or three jerks who, as a result, gives up on men altogether. They threw money at Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins. It didn’t pay off. Their recent free agent signees turned out to be busts. So now, they won’t even go after the big names that command big money contracts. They’ll spend a couple pennies on scrap heap material. They’ll take their chances on a decrepit Jason Bay, like it’s 2005 or something. But they won’t pay the cornerstones they need to build a franchise around. They refuse to do that. They’ll date low-risk, safe guys only. No taking chances here. Not Seattle. Safety first in Seattle.
And to top it all off — to top it ALL off, as if this hasn’t been enough — they treat us like shit. Like we’re naive dumbasses that don’t know jack about baseball. Naturally, that behavior is epitomized by our team president, Chuck Armstrong, and team CEO, Howard Lincoln. Every time I see Howard or Chuck on my TV, I notice those annoying little half-smirks on their faces, as if we couldn’t POSSIBLY do their jobs as well as they think they can. Every time I hear their voices on my radio, every time I see their quotes in print, I imagine those half-smirks. Every time I so much as THINK about those two bumbling idiots, I envision those half-smirks. And at the end of the day, all those half-smirks add up. Those dickheads treat us like children. Like we wouldn’t know shit if it landed in our toilet. They patronize us. It’s disgusting. Flat-out disgusting. There is ZERO respect for the Seattle Mariners fan base from the men who run the team. They could not care less about us. And that pains me to the utmost degree. Because we want to love the Mariners so, so, SO badly. But they don’t care. They don’t care about loving us in return. Assholes. They’re assholes.
When I look back on the twilight of the Howard Lincoln-Chuck Armstrong Seattle Mariner regime, I’ll remember all the shit they put us through. Bad trades, half-assed attempts at landing free agents, zero effort to improve the product on the field. And of course, their wholehearted desire to stop an arena from being built in their own backyard. It’s the only thing they’ve passionately devoted themselves to. If they cared half as much about their ballclub as they do striking down an effort to improve the lives of Seattle sports fans in this region, we’d already have a few World Series banners hanging in the Safeco Field rafters. But alas, they don’t give a damn about us. They suck. They just suck.
Here’s a suggestion to Chris Hansen and all those individuals working diligently to get a multi-purpose sports arena built in the SoDo neighborhood: disguise your arena as a big-ticket free agent or a loyal M’s fan. If you do that, the Mariners are sure to turn a blind eye.
Filed under: Mariners
Tags: Chuck Armstrong, Howard Lincoln, jason bay, Josh Hamilton, Suck
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What Hamilton to the Angels means for the Ms
I am sure all of you heard the news about Josh Hamilton agreeing to a 5 year, $125 million contract with the AL West rival Angels. This is bad news for not only the Hamilton-or-busters, but really for every Mariner fan. Even if you did not find Hamilton enticing, you cannot like seeing him sign with a rival, especially one who was already a very good team.
I, personally, was somewhere in the middle. I was not all in on Josh as some were, but I did like him for the right price. I might have even given him the deal that LA did, but I have a feeling we would have had to beat that offer by quite a bit. Playing for an 89 win team with the likes of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout is a little more attractive than coming to a young team with a lot of question marks in a pitchers park.
Now many of you may be thinking the Ms absolutely need to sign Nick Swisher or someone comparable so we can try to match what the Angels did, and I understand where you are coming from. But I strongly disagree.
In my opinion, the Mariners have two options at this point.
- They can either sit tight and maybe make a few smaller additions such as Jason Kubel or Mike Morse to at least stay relevant, but not go after a big time free agent, or
- They can go all out and bring in 3-4 big time players like Swisher, Justin Upton, Michael Bourn and a pitcher.
Let me explain what some people may think of as crazy.
Option one makes sense because they aren’t going to compete in this division, even if they bring in one big name bat like many hoped for. 3.5 – 4 WAR Nick Swisher does not get us anywhere but 3rd place at best. He probably never would have instantly brought the Ms to contention, but now there is almost no chance. No one or two players are going to be able to catch the Angels, at least for the next few years.
That’s why it makes sense to stay put for now, and reassess next year or the year after. Then we can bring in a bat that will still be around when the Angels are old and the Ms have a chance to win. Bringing in Swisher on a 4-5 year deal when they won’t compete until the last two years of the deal, when Swisher is most likely no more than an average player, does not help.
Wait it out, then make your big splash in 2014 or 2015.
As for option two, it is the only chance the Ms have at competing in the next year or two. They are way behind the Angels now, and it would take multiple top players to stay with them. I’m talking signing Swisher, Bourn and Edwin Jackson, no matter what it takes. Trading for Upton no matter what it takes. Doing whatever is needed to get the players that will keep you in the hunt.
Unfortunately, I think option one is much more likely for this team. Ownership has not shown a huge desire to win, and I don’t expect that to change. I see Jack trading for a 2nd or 3rd tier guy like Mike Morse or Jason Kubel, and waiting the rest out. As hard as it is to admit, that may be the best option for this current Mariner team.
Tags: angels, featured, Josh Hamilton, Mariners General, nick swisher, offseason, Popular, seattle mariners
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At Bat This Morning: Seattle Mariners News for December 13, 2012
Josh Hamilton is probably quite pleased with the deal he just ecked out with the Los Angeles Angels. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
In Seattle Mariners news, not too much has been going on, however in league news, it looks like more players are moving around. Has Hamilton made a decision? Who should the Mariners pursue next? While nothing has been set in stone yet for the Mariners, other teams are making moves today, and those moves will impact the M’s 2013 roster.
- Josh Hamilton has signed a contract with the Los Angeles Angels, as reported by ESPN at 11:30 this morning. It is a five-year contract for $125 million.
- Ryan Dempster and the Boston Red Sox are close to finalizing their deal.
- Ichiro Suzuki is renegotiating his contract with the New York Yankees. It looks like he will have a 2-year contract for $14 million.
- There are still free agents available, including Nick Swisher, Logan Morrison, Michael Bourn, Hiroyuki Nakajima, and Lance Berkman. Who will the Mariners go for in their team-building efforts?
What do you believe the signing of Josh Hamilton means for the Mariners? Many fans are pushing for a Bourn or Swisher deal. Post your thoughts in the comments.
Tags: 2013 Season, Baseball General, featured, Josh Hamilton, Popular, seattle mariners
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Is Hamilton Even a Possibility for the Mariners?
Sep 27, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers outfieder Josh Hamilton prior to his at bat in the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Everyone seems to agree that superstar Texas Ranger Josh Hamilton would be a good addition to the Mariners’ lineup – it would bring a much-needed superstar player back to Seattle and give the team power behind the bat. However, one has to wonder whether such a deal is a real possibility for the Mariners. Sure, the team freed up some cash by trading Ichiro to the Yankees, but the team will have to do quite a bit of bargaining in order to lure Hamilton away from potentially larger offers.
So far the stance of the club has involved taking a back seat during the free agent deals and watching to see what happens. This kind of laid-back approach may save them money, but it’s doubtful whether it is the best approach for winning the loyalty and contract of Hamilton, a powerhouse who knocked 43 balls out of the field and ran the bases 128 times.
Todd Pheifer of the Seattle Mariners Bleacher Report points out that the Mariners will have to be quite aggressive if they want to scoop up Hamilton. While it may be the case that grabbing up someone, who even with a 30 home run year would bolster the underdog team’s lineup, will be difficult in light of the Greinke deal with the Dodgers, it’s important that the team doesn’t sleep on this opportunity. Sure, one could make the argument that Hamilton literally dropped the ball in the final game of the playoff series against the Oakland Athletics, but when a team needs power behind the bat its important to take opportunities that pop up.
There has been some speculation that the New York Yankees may swoop in and pick up Hamilton before the Mariners get a chance to make that deal. So far, this appears to be just a rumor. What does seem to be a more substantiated theory is that the Mariners have talked with Hamilton about a three year deal of $20 to $25 million a year (Ken Rosenthal reports).
Until there is an official announcement of Hamilton signing with a team, all one can do is theorize. I suppose we will all have to adopt the Mariners’ sit-back-and-wait strategy to find out where Hamilton goes – at least for now.
Tags: featured, Josh Hamilton, Popular, prospects, Rumors, seattle mariners, Texas Rangers
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How much is too much for Hamilton?
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Mariners are somewhat likely to land Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher in the next 168 hours. There is little doubt that either player would improve the Mariners’ offense this year, the next year, and probably even the year after that. However, neither player is likely to sign for only three years, so let’s take a look at a longer-term projection.
Using Baseball-Reference’s similarity scores, I gathered both Hamilton and Swisher’s top 10 comparable players (up to and through the age-31 season). I then analyzed the average performance of those ten players in each subsequent season on the downhill side of 31. I looked at the effects of age on these types of players in terms of plate appearances, BABIP, OBP, ISO, Bill James’ Power-Speed statistic, and WAR.
Let’s get started with Josh Hamilton today.
We all know that players tend to get worse with age. For some, that age is 30, and for others, not 30. The best I can do for predicting Josh Hamilton’s aging process is to see how similar players aged. Maybe Hamilton will be different and special, but that’s not a probable outcome.
Hamilton’s ten best comps declined on average each year after they turned 31. The chart below summarized the group’s year –to –year changes.
| Stat | Yearly Change |
| PA | -40 PA |
| Babip | -5 points |
| OBP | -12 points |
| ISO | -18 points |
| PwrSpd | -1.35 units |
| WAR | -0.36 wins |
We can see that the group of Hamilton’s best friends declined in every statistic. Not every player declined every year, but the trend was most definitely downward. And I should point out that these negative changes likely underestimate the effect of aging to some degree since players that chose to retire were not able to be counted. A player that chooses to retire likely does so because he feels that he will do poorly. If we could somehow go back in time and force all the players in our sample to play seven full seasons after the age of 31, we would almost certainly find that the average decline was even more pronounced than that above—especially in terms of WAR. More on this later.
If we assume that Hamilton will be a 5.1-WAR player in 2013, that a win on the open market is currently worth $5M, that the market inflation rate will be 7.5%, and that he will only lose 0.36 WAR each season, then here’s what seven years would look like.
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
582 |
5.1 |
$25.5 |
|
2014 |
542 |
4.74 |
$25.5 |
|
2015 |
502 |
4.38 |
$25.3 |
|
2016 |
462 |
4.02 |
$25.0 |
|
2017 |
422 |
3.66 |
$24.4 |
|
2018 |
382 |
3.3 |
$23.7 |
|
2019 |
342 |
2.94 |
$22.7 |
| Total |
3234 |
28.14 |
$172.1 |
Hey, that looks pretty swell! Seven years for $175M—which Hamilton lobbed out there a few weeks ago—doesn’t look so far-fetched with the above assumptions. However, 7.5% inflation is probably a high forecast, and a 0.36-WAR loss per season is quite conservative due to the sampling bias mentioned above. With an inflation rate of 5% and a 0.5-WAR loss per season, this is Hamilton’s outlook:
| Year | PA | WAR | Value ($) |
|
2013 |
582 |
5.1 |
$25.5 |
|
2014 |
542 |
4.6 |
$24.7 |
|
2015 |
502 |
4.1 |
$23.7 |
|
2016 |
462 |
3.6 |
$22.4 |
|
2017 |
422 |
3.1 |
$20.7 |
|
2018 |
382 |
2.6 |
$18.7 |
|
2019 |
342 |
2.1 |
$16.2 |
| Total |
3234 |
25.2 |
$151.8 |
I’m leaning more on the side of the second scenario, though I still think it’s a bit kind to Hamilton. Based on those numbers, I would be pleased if the Mariners signed Hamilton for six years at $125M. Fangraphs crowd sourcing predicted some weeks ago that a Hamilton contract would end up being 5 years for $100M. That would be quite a deal for the signing team, but we just learned that Fangraphs’ readers undershot Zack Greinke by $33M, so I’m not holding my breath on 5/100.
Obviously, none of the comparable players were Josh Hamilton. There were a lot like Josh Hamilton in some statistical ways, but not every way. Hamilton swings at everything, perhaps more like Vladimir Guerrero in that way. Hamilton has a history of drug problems, maybe more like Lenny Dykstra. Hamilton is left-handed and injury prone, maybe more like Ken Griffey, Jr.
For the curious, Dykstra washed up after 31, posting two seasons worth a total 2.6 bWAR. Guerrero had one more good season at 32 with 4.3 bWAR, then disappeared, posting just 4.5 bWAR over his final four seasons. Griffey fought on valiantly, but in the end, he accumulated just 4.3 bWAR in parts of nine seasons after 31.
Is that a study? No. It’s an anecdote. But here’s a fact: just four of Hamilton’s ten comps made it to their age-38 season, the seventh season after 31.
Age is stacked against Hamilton, but I still think he’s worth a six-year contract if the price is in the $125M range. Just don’t Chone Figgins us, please.
Tomorrow, we’ll have some fun with Nick Swisher—at least, with the statistics he has produced. He won’t actually be here with me.
Tags: featured, Josh Hamilton, Off-Season, Popular, seattle mariners
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Rumor Update: December 5th
There has been a lot of talk surrounding the Mariners at the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’d say we are one of, if not the most talked about team in Nashville. The team is being linked to almost every hitter there is, and that’s not really surprising.
This is, talk is cheap. Now, I am confident Jack Z is doing everything within his power to add a bat. I can picture him running around Nashville like a crazy person, phone in hand, knocking on peoples doors, some that have nothing to do with the MLB. Unfortunately, activity does not always guarantee success. We all know how hard it is to lure hitters here, and that Jack and company will have to overpay to get someone here.
But at least we know he is trying, and that’s all we can ask for.
There has already been a signing, but it’s probably not what you would hope for. It looks as though the Mariners have agreed to sign Jason Bay to a one-year deal, reportedly for around $1 million.
I am pretty neutral on this deal. I am all for reclamation projects, but I am not a fan of the guaranteed, major league contract that he was given. I am not sure that he has a chance to be much better than Casper Wells, who is the current 4th outfielder.
If other moves, hopefully for a real hitter, are made, then I have no problem with this move. But if he is the big signing for the offseason, I won’t be too happy.
Anyway, back to the rumors.
Jon Morosi reports that if the Nationals are able to re-sign 1st baseman Adam Laroche, that they could trade Mike Morse to Seattle, who are showing interest.
I am a fan of a move for Morse, but I don’t feel that he is the instant fix either. He has played mostly left field for Washington, but is not very good at there, and fits better as a 1st baseman who you can throw in a corner outfield spot if you need to.
There’s no doubt in my mind that he can hit however, as seen in his .303/.360/.550, .390 wOBA, 148 wRC+ line in 2011. That was his only full season, as he battled injuries last year, and didn’t get a ton of playing time in 2010. But even in those seasons he put up .340 wOBA/113 wRC+ and .377 wOBA/134 wRC+ in those seasons respectively.
I think he makes more sense coming in with a Swisher, Hamilton or Upton (who I will talk about later on), but by himself wouldn’t be too bad either. Washington is said to be seeking bullpen help, so if he could be had for one of Carter Capps or Stephen Pryor and a prospect not named James, Danny, Nick or Taijuan, I think Jack should jump all over it.
Will the Mariners pick up Josh Hamilton in the winter meetings? Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
John Heyman reported that the Mariners are still in on Josh Hamilton, but like everyone else, they prefer a shorter deal.
Hamilton is a guy who has grown on me. That may sound strange considering I am talking about a superstar, but I was really worried about him. And in many ways I still am. I am not a fan of him on more than a 5 year deal, and for no more than $25 million a year.
But I am now hoping the Mariners offer him just that. It is obvious now that you are going to have to overpay no matter what. So you might as well overpay for a star. Id rather give an MVP 5/125 than someone like the recently signed Shane Victorino 3/$39 million.
I also think that if you are going to go for it, then you should get another guy like Morse in addition to Hamilton. As great as he is, I think this team may be a little more than one bat away from competing, especially if the Rangers trade for Upton.
There has also been a lot of speculation from various places that the Mariners are not only in on Nick Swisher, but may be the favorite.
It makes a lot of sense to me. Swisher is an above average hitter, and can play both right field and 1st, which are our biggest holes on the team. He is a guy that is going to give you a .265/.365/.475 line year in and year out. Now, he is turning 32 this year, and would most likely command a 4-5 year deal, so its probably necessary to assume a small decline from that as time passes.
But his ability to draw walks and get on base is the best part of his game, and that’s very encouraging for aging guys. Plate discipline is something that tends to stick around, unlike speed and things of that nature. Even if he isn’t the best contact guy, he should continue to get on base, and provide at least 20-25 home run power for the next few years.
That, combined with the fact that he plays slightly above average defense at the team’s two weakest positions make him my favorite option. Like Hamilton, it is always best to get another bat through trade to come along with him, but he would be okay by himself.
If he can come here a 4/62, I think he makes the most sense out of anyone.
Rumors of interest in Michael Bourn have also begun to surface recently.
He does not make much sense to me at all. He is essentially Franklin Gutierrez mixed with 2010 Chone Figgins, and that’s not an exaggeration. He is one of the best defensive center fielders in the league (Guti) and gets most of his offensive production from his speed and decent on base ability.
If you compare Bourn’s 2012 to Figgins’s 2009, or the year before he signed here, it is scarily similar. But what’s even scarier is that Figgins was better. In 2012 Bourn hit .273/.348/.391 compared to .298/.395/.393 for Figgins. Figgins also bested him in WAR at 6.9 vs 6.4.
There is no guarantee that Bourn follows the same path, but I would argue that it is likely. Players that rely heavily, or solely in Bourn’s case, on speed, they tend to decline. I don’t think that is what Seattle needs. They need bats, and Bourn really doesn’t fit that mold, especially at $15 million a year like he will get.
If he were to come in with Upton or Butler, then I can see it. But even then, I don’t think he would be too much of an upgrade over what we have. It would be a poor use of money, and I think we would see Figgins 2.0.
Finally, there are still some Justin Upton rumors, but they have cooled down, at least involving the Mariners. It looks like the Diamondbacks and Indians are looking for an Upton-Asdrubal Cabrera trade, but need another team, or three.
So far it’s sounding like the Royals, Rangers and Rays are those other three teams and there are reports that deals have already been put into place. It is looking very unlikely that Upton will come to Seattle.
However, there have been reports that Seattle is interested in shortstop Dee Gordon. The only, and I mean ONLY, logical explanation for that is that Jack is trying to put together a package for Upton, knowing that Arizona wants a shortstop.
The problem with that is that Dee Gordon is awful. He is a below average hitter now, and most likely will never be better than average. That, combined with his below average defense make for a very invaluable player. Without his speed, he would not be in the bigs.
The Mariners have no use for him with a better version of him in Brenden Ryan, and Nick Franklin is not too far away.
Its a confusing and frustrating time. It is particularly frustrating to me because a lot of the rumors we are hearing are not very good moves as is. A move for Gordon is a waste. Bourn is not valuable to a team looking for power. We just have to stick it out and hope for the best.
Tags: featured, jason bay, Josh Hamilton, justin upton, Mariners General, michael bourn, mike morse, nick swisher, Popular, seattle mariners, Trade Theorys, winter meetings
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The Mariners and the Win Curve
The Baseball Winter Meetings, worthy of capitalization, began today in Nashville. Among other activities, owners and GMs hang out and talk about signing and flipping assets. Assets being players in this case. Jonah Keri of Grantland wrote a piece about which 10 teams are most likely to “make a splash.” Regardless of how you define “making a splash,” the Mariners are on the list as they should be.
I would guess that each team’s fans want to “make a splash” in some way. Splashes are exciting, and more often than not, splashes bring with them more winning. But there are certain teams that should be more into splashes, and the Mariners are one of those teams.
It really comes down to a cost-benefit analysis. Splashes cost money, but provide benefits in terms of wins, and wins lead to playoffs (sometimes). Wins and playoffs lead to more revenue, and the splash cycle can restart with more juice. But there’s a catch. Five more wins for the Houston Astros or New York Yankees does not provide the same benefit as five more wins for an average team. One of those teams mentioned will not make the playoffs, and one of those teams will (probably) make the playoffs, no matter what splashes are signed.
But now think about a team like Seattle. Without any signings, Seattle’s expectation is probably about 75-to-80 wins. But as the A’s and O’s of 2012, along with the Mariners of 2010, have shown us is that variation in baseball is high. A good team expected to win 85 or 90 games can wind up with just 60, and some mediocre teams expected to win 75 can win 90+ and make the playoffs. That’s the variance of baseball, so consider these theoretical numbers.
1) Results from last year suggest that a team needs at least 88 wins to make the playoffs.
2) Say the Mariners are expected to win 77 games, plus-or-minus 10 games. 67 to 87 wins.
Though these are theoretical expectations so far, we can see that if they are true, the Mariners are unlikely to make the playoffs. If this were, for instance, a 95% prediction interval, then the M’s essentially would have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. Now let’s give Josh Hamilton to the Mariners, and increase their expectation by 5 wins, to 82. Now the range of expectation sits at 72 to 92, and a chunk of that expectation lives in Playoffs Land, which is inhabited by Revenue Fairies. This would increase the M’s playoff chances substantially, perhaps to 15 or 20%. Just think if we added both Hamilton and Edwin Jackson 
In this scenario, the benefits of players like Hamilton, Justin Upton, Jackson, or whomever very well could outweigh the financial/asset burden in the near future. I’m not prepared to discuss the future beyond 2013, but I can argue strongly that the M’s are in prime position to make the most of free-agent signings because of their proximity to the “playoff bubble.” The Astros and Yankees are probably far from the playoff bubble, and should not make major changes. The Mariners are extremely close to the playoff bubble, and should take this opportunity to push themselves over the edge. Whether they sign free agents with monetary costs, or trade for MLB-ready talent with asset costs, now is a strategic time to maximize the benefits for our beloved Seattle Mariners.
Tags: edwin jackson, featured, free agent market, Josh Hamilton, justin upton, off season plans, Off-Season, playoff chances, Popular, trades, win curve, winter meetings
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Rumor Update
I think it has become apparent that I am a big fan of trade rumors and offseason speculation. I have written numerous articles about players the Mariners could or should target and it is one of my favorite topics.
There have been a lot of rumors lately about who the Mariners may target, and some of them have been confirmed by the organization itself. Obviously most of this is just speculation and often turns out to be exaggerated, but it is still exciting nonetheless. So, here are some of the rumors that have bounced around lately.
Sep 25, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton (32) bats during the game against the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark. Oakland won 3-2. . Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE
There have been numerous reports of the Mariner’s interest in free agent outfielder Josh Hamilton. It started out as speculation due to the team’s horrible offense, but the intensity has grown since then.
President Chuck Armstrong then confirmed the interest by saying:
“[GM Jack Zduriencik] is looking at it. We are going to have more money to spend. And we do need offense.”
That kind of confirmation is always a good sign, especially out of a Mariners organization that is usually pretty hard to read in these situations. I don’t doubt that the M’s are in on Hamilton, but its never a sure thing. Everyone is “looking at it”.
I just worry that we may be showing too much interest, which can drive up the price quickly. Hamilton is a great player, but I tend to have a more conservative approach when it comes to him. He comes with a lot of risk, but also extremely high reward. He is almost a lock to miss 25 games, and the drug history is a little sketchy as well. Who knows what his actual bodily age is after the abuse it went threw.
All that being said, I would love Josh here, at the right price. He is one of my favorite players, and one of the better players in the league. He can give you a .370+ wOBA and 130+ wRC+ a year. I am just weary of giving him more than 5 years, $115 million. The money is the lesser of the issues to me though. If we have the money, let’s spend it. But the idea of a 37 year old player making $23-$25 million for the year is a scary thought to me.
Oct 13, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Nick Swisher hits a double against the Detroit Tigers in the 8th inning during game one of the 2012 ALCS at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/11/8/3620674/nick-swisher-seattle-mariners-rumors
The Swisher rumors haven’t been as prevalent as the ones for Hamilton, but they are there. However, there hasnt been a confirmation from the organization like there was with Josh.
To me, though, that’s just a matter of circumstance. Hamilton is a bigger name than Swisher, and because of that, everything else goes out the window. The article above made a good reference to this as well, saying that it would have been better for the Swisher rumor to come out before the Hamilton rumor, but a rumor is a rumor. At least it exists, however small.
Whether you prefer Hamilton or Swisher really depends on what you value. Swisher is the lesser player, and I won’t pretend he isn’t. But Josh also comes with much more risk, and I won’t pretend that isn’t true either. With Swisher, you can pretty much pencil in a .360 wOBA and 120 wRC+ with 20-25 homers and solid defense in right field. Still very good, but not at Josh’s level. However, are you looking for a little less potential in the form of more consistency at a lower price? Or do you want to go all out and take on the risk with the possibility of an MVP performance at a much higher price.
I personally prefer Swisher, IF both players are paid what they should be. If Swisher comes $8+ million a year cheaper, I prefer him over Josh all day. But if the price difference starts getting much lower, or Swish gets overpayed, say $18M for Swisher and $24M for Hamilton, for 5 years, then I prefer Josh. Like I said, it comes down to your values.
September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE
Per MLB Trade Rumors:
The Mariners covet Billy Butler and would conceivably part with young, high-end pitching to acquire him. Butler is under contract through 2014 with a club option for 2015, though the Royals are unsure if they have enough offense to move him right now.
This is the newest rumor, and simultaneously the older rumor we have heard. There was a report during the season that we made calls on Butler, but nothing came from it. That rumor has since resurfaced however, and Ken Rosenthal reports that we are enamored with Butler.
Now, I am sure most teams are. Theres a lot to like about a .337 wOBA, 140 wRC+ player. But the fact that we were singled out makes it a little more intriguing. There is a definite match between the Ms and Kansas City.
While Butler is a great hitter, and his bat would be a great addition to this team, he doesn’t quite have a spot here, position wise. It looks as though Jesus Montero is our DH, and Justin Smoak may be back for another go at 1st. I don’t have a huge problem with dumping Smoak, and he might be a piece in a trade for Butler. But Billy is a lousy 1s baseman, and despite what we like to think, Montero has no experience there, and may not be capable of handling it.
I wouldn’t be opposed to a Erasmo Ramirez/Brandon Maurer, Jason Vargas and Smoak trade for Butler and Feliple Paulino or something, but I get the feeling one of the Big 3 will have to be involved. That may be where I draw the line though. I’m not sure that a DH only who forces another DH only to play first, and the team to give up on Smoak, is worth that much. His bat certainly would be, if he could play a position.It hurts me to say that because Butler is probably my favorite non Mariner, along with Troy Tulowitzki.
There is also the possibility that Montero gets moved to allow Butler to DH, but I hope that’s not the case. I think we need to add to what we have, not trade away a player who could be very similar to Butler. I would consider Paxton and Montero for Butler and Wil Myers, but that’s about it. I am not a fan of addition by subtraction and such. We need to add Montero, Ackley and Seager, not replace them.
One thing we know for sure is that if the front office is serious about Butler, then they have thought about this. They either have faith in Montero at 1st, or plan to trade him and get some value back. I don’t see GMZ making a reaction move and just dumping Montero because we have Butler. He knows we need to add, not replace.
In the end, my opinion is Swisher>Hamilton>Butler in terms of value to the team. All things considered, thats the order I would want them in. I like Butler better than Hamilton in most aspects, except defense. He just doesn’t have a spot without making some moves that might not be smart. I like that he is 5 years younger, $100 million cheaper, and a right handed bat. But I don’t love having to move Smoak or Montero, and think outfield needs to be upgraded first and foremost.
My ultimate dream would be Swisher and Butler, but that seems a tad too good to be true. But who knows, I trust Jack, and he knows he needs to make a move to get this team to success. We have the money, and could come out of both those moves with a payroll under last years, and leave room to sign another starting pitcher like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson, if they are willing to get closer to a $90 million payroll. $14M for Swisher, $8M for Butler, $10M for McCarthy/Jackson, and minus the $6-7M to Vargas puts us right in that range.
Tags: Billy Butler, featured, Josh Hamilton, Mariners General, nick swisher, Popular, Rumors, seattle mariners
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Final List of possible targets
I have done multiple posts dedicated to talking about ways to improve the offense this season. Even though it may seem redundant at times, I think it is so important that we really need to analyze all the options and decide who is the best of them.
There are two ways to go about this issue. Spend some big bucks and go after a free agent, or try to acquire someone through trade. There are pros and cons to both of these routes, as well as pros and cons for each player that we will consider. That is what this article will be about. Weighing all the options in an effort to see who best fits the needs of this team.
Pros and cons to free agency:
Pros:
- Don’t have to give up any players/prospects who could help the team in the future. This is something that is always hard and scary to do. You never want to have to give up your future.
- You know the player is interested. If they choose to sign with you, it means they wanted to play for your team. There are times where players who are traded become unhappy and don’t want to play for their new team.
- Josh Hamilton. He is the best player available in free agency, and maybe overall. He could be an instant fix.
Cons:
- Less to choose from. There are only so many free agents out there, and sometimes you end up settling for whatever you can get.
- Inflated prices. Players always get over-payed because so many teams are interested in their services. To get the top notch guys, you really have to open up your pockets, and be okay with spending a little more than you would like. Free agents can cripple a franchise.
The pros and cons for trading are basically the inverse of what it says above. You get a bigger selection of players, and can get the players that you really want (with some exceptions). You also save money, at least in the options that I am going to talk about. Most players on the trade market have already re-signed long term to more team friendly contracts. On the flip side, you have to give up prospects or current players in order to get who you want. You can overpay with players just as easily as you can with money.
Bottom line, you have to evaluate what you are getting, as well as what you are giving up, and decide whether the trade will help your team or not. All that being said, here are my (final) top 5 targets for this offseason.
Oct 5, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton (32) warms up before the game against the Baltimore Orioles in the 2012 American League wild card playoff game at Rangers Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE
Free Agent Options:
Josh Hamilton, 31. Expected contract: 5 years/$100 million
2012 stats: .285/.354/.577 — .387 wOBA — 140 wRC+ — 43 HR
Overall, Hamilton isn’t my favorite choice, but not my least favorite either. He is the best player available, but he also carries the most risk. As great as he is, there are concerns of how well is body will hold up long term. But a .387 wOBA and 43 dingers could bring this offense to a whole new level. I think I would be willing to go 5/100 for him, but anymore than that, both in years and dollars, would be too much for the risk involved. I would go hard at 4/80, but if that doesn’t get it done, and there are no better options out there, then 5/100 would be fine with me. I just don’t want us to get too desperate and make a mistake here.
Nick Swisher, 32. Expected contract: 4 year/$56 million
Oct 18, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Nick Swisher (33) at bat in front of Detroit Tigers catcher Gerald Laird (9) during game four of the 2012 ALCS at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
2012 stats: .272/.364/.473 — .363 wOBA — 128 wRC+ — 24 HR
Swisher went from my favorite option, to my least favorite option, to somewhere in the middle. I started campaigning for him in August, and wanted us to go after him as hard as we could. Then he came out asking for a contract comparable to Jayson Werth‘s 7/126, and that desire went away quickly. But now, Fangraphs (which is where the expected contracts are from) is predicting him to get a 4/56 deal, and I’m right back on the bandwagon. Swisher may be one of the most consistent, underrated players in the game. He puts up 4 WAR year in and year out, thanks to his ability to get on base, solid power, and plus defense in right field. There is still a little risk here though, as Swisher would be 35 at the end of the contract. However, his lack of injury history and ability to move to 1st if necessary makes him a fairly safe bet. I would be ecstatic if we were to sign Swisher to a deal like this, and would probably be okay with 5/70 as well.
Trade Targets:
Billy Butler, 26. Expected Trade Cost: James Paxton, Jason Vargas and Justin Smoak
September 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals designated hitter Billy Butler (16) hits a home run during the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE
2012 stats: .313/.373/.510 — .377 wOBA — 140 wRC+ — 29 HR
You guys may know how much I love Billy Butler. He is probably my favorite non-Mariner, and I would love to have him here. He consistently puts up great numbers, and is signed fairly long term. Plus, the Royals said they are open to trading him for pitching. Only problem is, he is a DH/part time 1st baseman, and we are pretty full in that area. If you want to give up on Smoak and think Montero can play 1st, then by all means bring him in. But if you are like me and would rather upgrade RF, then this trade doesn’t make a ton of sense. We would be upgrading 1st, but leaving our biggest hole to a mediocre platoon of Casper Wells and Eric Thames. I am not suggesting we will upgrade both spots, but I think I would rather leave 1B as is, and give Smoak one last shot. He will be better than Casper and Thames in my opinion. Plus, we have Zunino on his way, which would move Montero or Jaso to 1st if Smoak can’t hack it.
All that being said, Butler is an animal. If we can trade for him, and sign RF to upgrade over the platoon, then I’m all for it. But if it’s one or the other then sadly, I say no Butler.
Sep. 29, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton (10) stands at bat during the game against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-US PRESSWIRE
Justin Upton, 25. Expected Trade Cost: Nick Franklin and James Paxton
2012 stats: .280/.355/.430 — .341 wOBA — 108 wRC+ — 17 HR — 2.5 WAR
I really don’t know what to think about Upton. He is the most talented player of the group, but he is also the least proven. He could very easily become an MVP, but he could also turn out to just be a good player. He had a very underwhelming year after putting up MVP caliber numbers in 2011. However, I don’t doubt that he could return to form in the future. What scares me is the awful home/road splits. He is a career .320 wOBA, 90 wRC+ hitter on the road, compared to .399/143 at hitter friendly Chase Field. If he is an average hitter overall on the road, what will he be playing half his games at Safeco? He will no longer have the 80 point bump in wOBA or 50 point bump in wRC+ that makes his stats what they are. I don’t think there is a logical argument that says he will hit anywhere near as well as he does in Chase if he moves to Safeco. Even if he hits slightly above average at Safeco (which I don’t think is logical), then he is still only a .335 wOBA, 105 wRC+ guy. To me, that is not worth Franklin and Paxton.
I want to love Upton. He is so talented and has the chance to become an amazing player. But right now, I don’t love him. I get the feeling that he would come to Seattle and be exposed. He would have to prove he can hit outside of Chase, and he hasn’t done that. I wouldn’t be totally opposed to bringing him in, but I’m certainly not hoping for it. Not at the current price.
Alex Gordon, 29. Expected Trade Cost: James Paxton/Danny Hultzen, Brad Millerand Jason Vargas
September 14, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon (4) drives the ball to left field against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE
2012 stats: .294/.368/.455 — .357 wOBA — 126 wRC+ — 14 HR — 5.9 WAR
Gordon is by far my favorite option. He is the most complete player out of all the players I have named, as seen with his 5.9 WAR. On top of what you see above, he led the league in doubles with 51. However, all of this makes him the most expensive player in terms of what we would trade in return. Although the Royals said they would deal him for pitching, they probably had a proven, #2 type starter in mind. That’s not to say they wouldn’t consider anything else, but I don’t think it’s likely. The trade I mentioned above might not get it done, but I’m not sure I want to give up much more. He is a great player and I really want him here. Who wouldn’t want a 6 WAR player with gold glove defense in left field? But there is a point where no one is worth what it would actually cost.
If Dayton Moore is desperate enough for pitching, he may be willing to trade his best player for a mid-rotation starter in Vargas, a future #2-3 starter in Hultzen, and what could become a very good middle infielder in the future in Brad Miller, knowing he has plenty of offense. However I wouldn’t say it is likely. Taijuan Walker might have to be involved, and I hate to lose him. But if they would take Walker for Gordon straight up, I would do it.
In conclusion, the Mariners need offense. There are many different routes they could take to get it, but to me, these make the most sense. And despite what we may think, the front office knows that too. Now it’s just up to the front office to do their job, and evaluate what is out there, and decide what we need to do to win ball games.
Tags: Alex Gordon, featured, Josh Hamilton, justin upton, Mariners General, nick swisher, Popular, seattle mariners
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JJ’s Other Offseason Plan
Last week, I wrote about what moves I think the Mariners should make over the winter. And I still like that plan and think it is a viable option to improve the offense. But the more I think about it, the more I want us to spend some more money and get a legit power bat. Nothing against Choo as he is a fantastic hitter, but he isn’t a big time homer guy, hitting just 16 this year, with his career high being 22.
When I think about legit power bats that are available, I automatically think Josh Hamilton, for obvious reasons. But there are other options such as Nick Swisher. So in this edition, I will base my plan around players like them.
Sign Josh Hamilton to a 6 year, $115 million dollar contract. OR Sign Nick Swisher to a 6 year, $ 100 million contract.
Sign Grady Sizemore to a 1 year, $2 million (plus incentives) contract.
Trade Mike Carp and Trayvon Robinson to Tampa Bay for Sean Rodriguez and Chris Gimenez.
Re-sign Hisashi Iwakuma for 2 years/$9.5 million.
Sign Jeff Francis for 1 year/$1 million OR Carlos Villanueva for 1 year/$3 million
Consider trading Vargas if an opportunity arises to get another bat, but do not try to look for a trade.
The obvious change here is the big move. Signing Hamilton or Swisher rather than trading for Choo. While all three are good hitters, Hamilton is the best, followed by Swisher, then Choo. Hamilton is one of the best players in the game, and probably won’t be AS expensive as you would expect.
Here is a comparison of Swisher and Hamilton for 2012:
|
Player |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
HR |
WAR |
|
Hamilton |
.387 |
140 |
43 |
4.4 |
|
Swisher |
.363 |
138 |
24 |
3.9 |
Obviously, Hamilton was the better player, but it was closer than you might have expected. Hamilton was amazing for a couple months, then fairly average for the rest. One thing Swish does have on him is being a switch hitter, and consistency. Hamilton has some injury history, and can be streaky at times, whereas you pretty much know what Swisher is going to give you year in and year out.
Defense is a little harder to measure, but I’d say Swisher is a little better. His average UZR for his career is about 2.4, whereas Hamilton’s is -1.35. This is another instance where Swisher is more consistent, as his highest UZR is 6.9, lowest is -2.2, whereas Hamilton’s range is between 9.8 and -14.6.
On top of that, Swisher has the flexibility to move from the corner outfield to 1st base, which could be very beneficial to the team. If Smoak looks like he has figured it out, Swisher can play right field. If not, and Casper Wells or someone like that plays well, then Swisher can move in to 1st.
When deciding between the two, money will be the biggest factor. Does the $15 million you save on Swisher outweigh the obvious gai.n in upside and star-power that Hamilton brings? Does Swisher’s flexibility and consistency give him some edge over the somewhat unpredictable Hamilton? I think it does, and part of me prefers Swisher to Hamilton. But the other part loves Hamilton, and wants his MVP caliber play in Seattle. Either way is a win in it’s own right.
Now to the lesser moves. Signing Grady Sizemore to a small, incentive based deal makes a lot of sense to me. His career has been derailed by injuries and may be looking for a fresh start. He hasn’t played more than 100 games since 2009, and a full season since 2008. In 2008 he put up All Star caliber numbers with a .376 wOBA and 131 wRC+ to go along with 33 home runs. He missed all of 2010 and this year, and only played 71 games in 2011. Grady is a local kid, and if he can stay healthy he is a really good player. He might be interested in coming home and trying to revive his career. We could use a part time bat in case Guti gets hurt again. Who knows, maybe he even outplays Guti and wins the job. These are the kind of guys we should be targeting along with the big bat I talked about before.
I talked about the Iwakuma deal and Tampa trade in the other article, so I will just briefly outline it. Iwakuma was solid this year (although not as good as his ERA and Safeco made him look), and it makes sense to bring him back for a couple years to hold down the fort until the Big 3 are ready. The trade with Tampa trades from a position of depth in order to acquire a position of need. Rodriguez can play anywhere in the infield, and hits fairly well for a backup. Gimenez gives us a backup catcher than can also play in the corners, so we don’t feel like we are wasting a spot on a 2.5th catcher.
Francis is in a similar situation to Sizemore. He has been good in the past, but hasn’t been able to put it all together for a while. He is a good option to fill out the back end, or to battle with Beavan for the 5th starter role. Villanueva has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for his career, and has done a good job in that role the last couple seasons. He would most likely take the 5th spot outright, but might cost a little more.
As for Vargas; I think we have to consider a package with him if presented to us. I don’t think we should shop him for C-level prospects, but if a package included him in order to acquire Ike Davis or something like that, then we should consider it.
Here is what the team would look like with these moves:
| Position | Player | Salary | Position | Player | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | John Jaso | $1,000,000 | SP | Felix Hernandez | $20,700,000 | |
| 1B | Justin Smoak | $550,000 | SP | Hisashi Iwakuma | $4,750,000 | |
| 2B | Dustin Ackley | $1,500,000 | SP | Jason Vargas | $6,000,000 | |
| SS | Brendan Ryan | $3,000,000 | SP | Erasmo Ramirez | $500,000 | |
| 3B | Kyle Seager | $500,000 | SP | Carlos Villanueva/
Jeff Francis |
$3,500,000/
$1,000,000 |
|
| LF | Michael Saunders | $1,000,000 | ||||
| CF | Franklin Gutierrez | $7,500,000 | CL | Tom Wilhelmsen | $500,000 | |
| RF | Nick Swisher/
Josh Hamilton |
$14,000,000/
$16,500,000 |
RH | Carter Capps | $500,000 | |
| DH | Jesus Montero | $500,000 | LH | Charlie Furbush | $500,000 | |
| RH | Stephen Pryor | $500,000 | ||||
| C | Chris Gimenez | $500,000 | LH | Lucas Luetge | $500,000 | |
| IF | Sean Rodriguez | $1,000,000 | RH | Shawn Kelley | $1,000,000 | |
| OF/IF | Grady Sizemore | $2,000,000 | RH | Blake Beavan | $500,000 | |
| OF | Casper Wells | $500,000 | ||||
| Total | $72,750,000 (Swisher)
or $75,250,000 (Hamilton) |
| Vs RHB | Player | Bats | Position | Vs LHB | Player | Bats | Position | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Ackley | L | 2B | 1 | Dustin Ackley | L | 2B | |
| 2 | John Jaso | L | C | 2 | Franklin Gutierrez | R | CF | |
| 3 | Jesus Montero | R | DH | 3 | Jesus Montero | R | DH | |
| 4 | Nick Swisher/Josh Hamilton | S/L | RF | 4 | Nick Swisher/Josh Hamilton | S/L | RF | |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | L | 3B | 5 | Kyle Seager | L | 3B | |
| 6 | Michael Saunders | L | CF | 6 | Michael Saunders | L | LF | |
| 7 | Justin Smoak | S | 1B | 7 | Justin Smoak | S | 1B | |
| 8 | Franklin Gutierrez | R | CF | 8 | John Jaso | L | C | |
| 9 | Brendan Ryan | R | SS | 9 | Brendan Ryan | R | SS | |
| Bench | Chris Gimenez | R | C | Bench | Chris Giminez | R | C | |
| Bench | Sean Rodriguez | R | IF | Bench | Sean Rodriguez | R | IF | |
| Bench | Grady Sizemore | L | OF | Bench | Casper Wells | R | OF | |
| Bench | Casper Wells | R | OF | Bench | Grady Sizemore | L | OF |
That lineup looks pretty solid, and we still cut pay-roll from last year. The added offense from Swisher/Hamilton, the improved depth and expected improvement from the young guys should make for a very solid team. If you estimate each players WAR, which is very tough to do, you might get something like this (Keep in mind this is just a biased, yet educated guess):
|
Position |
Player |
WAR |
|
C |
John Jaso |
3.0 |
|
1B |
Justin Smoak |
2.0 |
|
2B |
Dustin Ackley |
3.0 |
|
SS |
Brendan Ryan |
2.0 |
|
3B |
Kyle Seager |
3.5 |
|
LF |
Michael Saunders |
3.0 |
|
CF |
Franklin Gutierrez |
2.5 |
|
RF |
Swisher/Hamilton |
4.0/5.0 |
|
Bench |
Grady Sizemore |
1.5 |
|
Bench |
Sean Rodriguez |
1.0 |
|
Bench |
Casper Wells |
0.5 |
|
Bench |
Chris Gimenez |
0.5 |
|
SP |
Felix Hernandez |
6.0 |
|
SP |
Jason Vargas |
2.0 |
|
SP |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
1.5 |
|
SP |
Erasmo Ramirez |
1.5 |
|
SP |
Francis/Villanueva |
1.0 |
|
RP |
Blake Beavan |
0.5 |
|
RP |
Lucas Luetge |
0.5 |
|
RP |
Carter Capps |
0.5 |
|
RP |
Sean Kelley |
0.5 |
|
RP |
Stephen Pryor |
0.5 |
|
RP |
Charlie Furbush |
1.0 |
|
RP |
Tom Wilhelmsen |
2.0 |
|
- |
Total |
44/45 |
It is widely believed that a replacement level team (0 WAR) would win about 45 games. So if you take my projected team WAR of 44-45, then you could predict this team to win about 89-90 games. Obviously it is very difficult to predict these kinds of things as there are so many other factors. People get hurt. People slump. People breakout. Personally I think the 89 win prediction is a little high (I know, it was my prediction in the first place). It definitely isn’t out of the question, but I think 85-87 is more realistic, and would be a great improvement.
Winning 86 games in the first year after the exit of the rebuilding stage is a great step forward. There are still players that are developing, and some who will begin to do so, which will keep improving the team. With these changes, I could see 90 wins in 2015 for sure, and maybe even 2014 as well. We are in a tough division that keeps getting tougher, but we are a lot younger than them. As our rivals start to age and regress, we will be at our strongest point, ready to take over.
It’s only a matter of time.
Tags: featured, grady sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Mariners General, nick swisher, Popular, seattle mariners
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Black Friday Linkage
Even half way around the world they are still having black friday sales at the NEX (Naval Exchange) here on camp. If that’s not crazy I don’t know what is. I have to take that back as an old friend of mine posted a message on facebook saying that he was pulling an all nighter (at the age of 34) to get in on “Best Buy’s sweet deals”. Adam, buddy, that’s crazy.
Anyways, for those of you that are waking up and enjoying a nice cup of coffee on the day after Thanksgiving here is a few links (and thoughts) to read and be enjoyed a long with that joe.
Tags: cj wilson, clint barmes, greg halman, Joe Nathan, Josh Hamilton, Justin Verlander, Linkage, Matt Antonelli, Miguel Cabrera, prince fielder
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A Little Optimism On This Race
The Mariners are of course currently chasing one of the more elite hitting baseball teams in the Rangers. While the two teams are quiet opposites in design, it currently stands to reason that while the Mariners have kept up with the slumping Rangers, a second half resurgence is in order for our rivals from the south. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities where they run away with the division after the all-star break. Getting Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler back in the starting line-up, fully healthy only stands to help the Rangers.
But as the season goes on and I sit down and actually take a look back at last season, the Rangers didn’t exactly standout as much as they had in my mind. They took advantage of a lot of key match ups. Part of what helped them is they were 32-25 against a meager AL West last year and then went 14-4 playing against bad inter-league teams such as like Pittsburgh, Houston and catching Milwaukee during injuries.
This a lone accounts for a 46-29 record which in a way doesn’t seem “dominate” despite being 17 games over .500. I’m not saying they were bad by any means, good teams beat bad teams. Isn’t that the saying? But then you look at their record against teams above .500 (Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto) they were a combined 23-30. So while they weren’t a bad team, maybe they weren’t as impressive as we made them out to be and I think this year they are a bit more exposed.
Tags: C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, David Murphy, edwin jackson, Ian Kinsler, jason marquis, Joel Pineiro, Josh Hamilton, Mariners General, Matt Harrison, Milton Bradley, neftali feliz, Nelson Cruz, Ryan Dempster
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