Felix Hernandez

Mariners hit new low, must bounce back

On April 24, the Mariners lost 10-3 in Houston to fall to 8-15 on the young season. This was the low point for the 2013 season, and the team knew they had to respond to have any chance of contending. They responded in earnest, winning five of six series to get to 20-21 on May 16. They had a chance to surpass the .500 mark and make a run at Texas with a good series in Cleveland.

Unfortunately, that dream scenario for the Mariners simply did not play out. They lost a nail biter in extra innings Friday, as an exhausted bullpen yielded a walk off homer to Jason Kipnis. They lost in similar fashion Saturday, on a walk off infield hit after they had stormed back with homers in innings eight and nine. When an up-and-coming team like the Mariners loses two games in devastating fashion, they need their best players to come through and dig them out of the hole.

Felix Hernandez was in perfect position to do just that Sunday morning, as he took the mound against Justin Masterson. Instead, Felix put together his worst start of 2013 and Masterson dominated, sinking the Mariners even deeper in a 6-0 loss.

A pair of bummed out Mariners. David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Hernandez lasted just five innings and surrendered six runs (five earned) on eight hits. He walked two and struck out eight. The big blow came off the bat of Michael Brantley, who ripped a three-run homer to centerfield in the second inning to put Cleveland up 5-0.

The Mariners didn’t do anything to help themselves offensively either, as Masterson dominated for seven incredible innings. He allowed just three hits, walking two and striking out 11. At times, the Mariners had absolutely no idea against Masterson. The loss dropped the M’s to 20-24, and Cleveland can finish the sweep tomorrow.

All that equates to gut check time for Seattle. They need to win tomorrow with Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound to salvage something from this series and prepare for two games against the Angels in LA. They cannot get discouraged by watching Felix get shelled today. That happens to Felix from time to time as it does to all pitchers. Felix especially struggles at Progressive Field, where he is 3-5 lifetime with a 4.50 ERA in nine starts. He had a similarly horrendous start right around this time last season (on May 16, 2012, Felix gave up eight runs on ten hits in just 3.2 innings at Progressive Field). This bad start and loss doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

But it could if the Mariners let it get them down. If they refuse to plod forward like good teams do and dwell on these three consecutive losses, they may never scrape .500 again in 2013. Iwakuma can win tomorrow, and the ship will be right back on track for the best Mariners team in a few long years.

 

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Observations from a loss, 5/14

The Mariners lost a game they probably should have won Tuesday, falling to the Yankees 4-3 in the Bronx. Former Mariner Shawn Kelley got his second win of 2013 while Charlie Furbush earned his second loss. Mariano Rivera, the man, the myth, the legend, notched save No. 16 in the same number of chances. Here’s what I observed in Tuesday’s loss.

Umpire Jerry Layne bungled a few critical calls Tuesday

Questionable umpiring mars result

The worst bit of ump-work didn’t even cost the Mariners a run. That took place when Felix Hernandez and Kendrys Morales both decided to cover first on a really weird play made on a ground ball to Robert Andino hit by Lyle Overbay. Andino’s throw arrived in plenty of time, but Felix didn’t get out of Overbay’s way. The umpires huddled and incorrectly ruled Felix interfered with Overbay, allowing him to reach base. Here’s the rule on interference from the MLB rule book, per @KJRMitch on Twitter:

“OBSTRUCTION is the act of a fielder who, while not in possession of the ball and not in the act of fielding the ball impedes the progress of any runner”

So maybe Felix technically did that, but Overbay was already called out, so it shouldn’t have mattered. Throw in Charlie Furbush getting squeezed at least twice in the costly seventh inning and Mike Morse striking out for the final out on a pitch Rivera threw at least a foot inside, and the umpiring in this game was atrocious.

Ibanez born to play in new Yankee Stadium

As a rule, Eric Wedge avoids playing Raul Ibanez against lefties. Raul only had 11 ABs against southpaws in 2o13, with just one single to show for it. But Wedge rolled the dice on Ibanez Tuesday, knowing his prowess in dealing with the right field short porch in New York. And boy, was he right. Raul hit a sharp line drive to right off of Sabathia in the sixth inning that probably would have left one out of thirty parks in the majors. Fortunately, that one park happened to be the one the Mariners were playing in at the time. Ibanez can provide a big lift with his spurts of power, and as long as he does that every once in a while, he’ll stick around for all of 2013.

Felix’s leg “issues” cost Mariners

Felix was in top form tonight. Any time runners would threaten in scoring position, he pitched out of it with his dominant changeup. But he suffered two leg injury scares, once in the fourth and again in the sixth. The second not only threw off his rhythm and cost him a mistake pitch to Overbay resulting in an RBI double, but convinced Eric Wedge that he had to pull Felix after the inning. Then Wedge pulled a perfectly fine Yoervis Medina for “lefty-specialist” Charlie Furbush, who didn’t get any lefties out unscathed. You have to think Felix’s massive contract was weighing on Wedge’s mind at that point. The move cost the Mariners the game, as Felix could have pitched the seventh inning.

The Mariners fell to 18-21 and throw Hisashi Iwakuma against Phil Hughes tomorrow at 4:05 PT

 

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Mariners-Yankees News and notes, 5/14

The Mariners begin a three-game series with the Yankees in the Bronx today at 4:05 PT. Here are a few storylines to follow throughout the series.

Tuesday features class of AL starters

Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia. Both names evoke thoughts of terrifying and elite pitching prowess. Both names will appear in Tuesday night’s lineup card with a “P” next to their names. With Felix, a former Cy Young winner with a 1.53 2013 ERA, and CC, a former Cy Young winner at the head of the Evil Empire’s rotation, runs will likely prove few and far between. Who has the advantage? Sabathia tends to dominate the Mariners, with a 12-4 record and 2.46 ERA in 20 career starts against Seattle. But Felix pitches lights out in Yankee Stadium, with a 4-1 record and 2.13 ERA since its inaguration in 2010. It’s a close matchup, by I give Felix the slight edge because of how well he has pitched so far in 2013.

Andino, Ryan starting together again

The two worst hitters on the 25-man roster will both start for the second consecutive game for the Mariners. Andino will play second and Ryan shortstop, even though the two are hitting .159 and .122, respectively. Why? Well first of all, Dustin Ackley is left-handed and Sabthia could pose a matchup nightmare for him. Ackley is 1-for-7 career against Sabathia with four strikeouts (although that one hit was a two-run homer). Perhaps more to the heart of the matter, Andino and Ryan have the Mariners’ two best career averages against Sabathia. Ryan is 4-for-10 with three walks, while Andino checks in at 10-for-28 with a home run. Add in the fact that both hit the ball hard twice on Sunday, and runs could be produced from the bottom of the Mariners’ order tonight.

Mandatory Credit: John Munson/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports

Granderson returns for New York

Manager Joe Girardi stuck Curtis Granderson in the cleanup spot and in left field Tuesday for his season debut, after he fractured his forearm during his first at-bat of Spring Training. Granderson, a three-time all star, hit .232 with 43 home runs and 106 RBI last season for the Yankees. In 2011, he led the American League in RBI and runs scored. Against Felix, Granderson is a career .273 hitter in 55 at-bats, with two homers and 20 strikeouts. Granderson is the first of a long list of injured Yankee starts to return to the lineup this season, and could provide New York with a big lift. It’s not like the Yankees exactly need one, though, as they come into tonight at 24-14, one game up on the Orioles in the AL East.

First pitch is at 4:05 PT and will be from Sabathia to Michael Saunders. Here’s the rest Mariners’ lineup:

  1. Saunders CF
  2. Bay LF
  3. Seager 3B
  4. Morales 1B
  5. Morse RF
  6. Shoppach C
  7. Ibanez DH
  8. Andino 2B
  9. Ryan SS

Happy Felix Day!

 

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Day off links, 5/13

The Mariners have Monday off as they head to New York for a three-game set with the Yankees. Felix Hernandez takes the mound against CC Sabathia Tuesday at 4:07 PT. In the meantime, enjoy these links to Mariners content from around the blogosphere.

  • Felix is good, but he’s only getting better. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

    Greg Johns took questions in his weekly “Inbox” column. He touched on Justin Smoak being a switch hitter and Jeremy Bonderman’s and Erasmo Ramirez’s chances of cracking the rotation any time soon, and more.

  • MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince discussed how Felix Hernandez has been better than ever in 2013.
  • Geoff Baker made his return to the Seattle Times after his mother died in heart surgery two weeks ago. His post was a solid one on many things, with a necessary improvement from Mike Morse at its core.
  • Larry Stone’s “Hot Stone League” post pointed out how Tuesday will be Felix’s first start in New York where the Yankees haven’t felt he was auditioning for a trade. That ought to feel good for Mariners’ fans.
  • Rick Randall wrote an extensive post about Taijuan Walker’s development for LookPro Land-W.
  • Jeff Sullivan posted something titled “Well now what the [Heck] is this” on USS Mariner today. Anything Jeff writes is worth reading, so just look at it. It’s about how Eric Wedge clearly doesn’t understand Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse as hitters. Jeff is brilliant.

A happy early Felix Day to you all.

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Mariners split with Pirates in defacto doubleheader

The new alignment structure in Major League Baseball, where interleague games are played on nearly every day of the season, was bound to cause some scheduling oddities. This week marked the first time the Mariners felt the strain of those changes.

Seattle split with the NL Central’s Pittsburgh Pirates in a pair of games played at 4:07 pm PT Tuesday evening and 9:35 am PT Wednesday morning. Besides the fact the players likely slept last night, they essentially played a doubleheader in between days off Monday and Thursday. While the games proved an odd sandwich of battles, here’s a few things the Mariners taught the casual observer over the course of less than 24 hours.

A match made in Heaven. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners aren’t built to win in the National League

The nine-hole is already a throwaway spot in the order for the team with Robert Andino/Brendan Ryan combining for around .150. Add in the pitcher spot instead of a useful designated hitter position, and that’s two throwaways. Unsurprisingly, the only time these spots produced hits in the series was when Raul Ibanez had an RBI double in game one while pinch hitting. Also unsurprisingly, the Mariners only put up three runs on eight hits in the two games.

The King stay the King

Shoutout to “The Wire” for that one, but Felix Hernandez truly pitched his rear end off today. He battled back from surrendering a first-inning run to allow just four hits over his final seven innings of work. A spectacular Felix was the only way the Mariners were coming out of Pittsburgh with a win, and he delivered, improving to 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA on the year. The game marked Felix’s fourth consecutive victory.

Montero shines when Felix pitches

The 2013 season has not treated Jesus Montero nicely, but he has shined in spots. In today’s win, he made two huge plays to win the game for the Mariners. First, he hit the game-winning home run in the seventh inning off of A.J. Burnett, who pitched extremely well in defeat. Montero also picked off Startling Marte in a huge spot to end the eighth inning. It was perhaps his best performance of the season, with the possible exception of April 28′s 3-2 win over the Angels, when Montero hit a big tying home run in the sixth inning. The pitcher that day? Felix Hernandez. The Mariners are 3-0 this season when Montero homers.

The Mariners are off Thursday before Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound Friday night at Safeco against Oakland.

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Postgame news and notes, 5/3

The Mariners defeated the Blue Jays in the first game of a five-game road trip to Canada and Pittsburgh Friday by a final score of 4-0. Felix Hernandez improved to 4-2 with eight shutout innings. He defeated Ricky Romero in Romero’s season debut. Romero only lasted four innings.

May 3, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) hits a 2 run homer in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

  • Felix registered his 66th career start of eight or more innings with two or fewer runs allowed. Since his 2005 debut, he leads the major leagues in that obscure yet impressive category (Per: @Mariners).
  • Kyle Seager went 3-for-4, raising his average to .304 on the young season. This is interesting, because in case you haven’t noticed, Mariners’ players don’t typically hit .300 since Ichiro stopped doing so. Also, Seager’s second hit was a first pitch, upper-tank home run off of Romero, his fourth of the year. It was absolutely destroyed, and was his third homer of the year against left-handed pitchers.
  • Jason Bay hit an opposite field shot in the sixth inning to extend the Mariner lead to four. It marked Bay’s third blast of the year, and showed that Bay still has some of the power that allowed him to average 29 home runs in a six year period in his prime. The Bay over Casper Wells decision continues to look better and better for Jack Zdurencik.
  • With the bases loaded and one man out in the fourth inning, Dustin Ackley fell behind Romero 0-2. Instead of wildly hacking to stay alive, a la 2012 Ackley, he patiently took three pitches, including a tempting 1-2 breaking ball. He then ripped a 3-2 fastball through the whole for an RBI single. Another base hit later on raised his average to .255, and he’s slowly but surely becoming a viable part of the lineup again.
  • Initially, Hisashi Iwakuma was supposed to be starting tomorrow’s game for the M’s. Then early in the week, Eric Wedge announced Joe Saunders would swap spots and make an early start because of Iwakuma’s nagging blister. Earlier today, Wedge changed his mind, saying Iwakuma would in fact make his regularly scheduled start. Maybe there was some gamesmanship involved here, but the takeaway is that Iwakuma is still healthy enough to pitch on his regular timetable. Thanks for the distraction, Wedge.

Iwakuma takes on reigning NL Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey tomorrow at 10:07 a.m. PT.

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Extra-inning loss shows not much has changed for Mariners

With Felix Hernandez on the hill and the King’s Court in full effect last night, optimism for a Mariners’ win last night ran understandably high. Sure, the team opposed the Tigers and Max Scherzer, but the Mariners have a great chance of winning any game the King starts.

However, the Mariners lost a marathon 14-inning game by a score of 2-1. Score lines like that one call into question whether this team is any different than the 2012 installment, or any of the offensively anemic Seattle squads before that.

Felix pitched brilliantly for eight innings, only allowing an unearned run after Brendan Ryan booted a sharp grounder. He struck out 12 batters, one off his career-high, vanquishing eight of the nine Tigers starters at least once.

The Mariners failed yet again to support Felix Hernandez Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

But naturally, the Mariners made Scherzer look equally as impressive for his eight innings. The M’s truly had no idea at the plate against the 29-year old righty, striking out 12 times and only scoring one run on a Raul Ibanez RBI single. Even though Felix strung together his most impressive outing of the season, the Mariners couldn’t get him the win, and never came close.

Even with Felix out, the Mariners had a great chance to win the game in the bottom of the ninth. With two on and no one out, Raul Ibanez came to the plate with a chance to walk off. But the Tigers went to lefty Phil Coke, and since Eric Wedge had already wasted the two outfielders on his bench in questionable mangerial decisions (Endy Chavez pinch hitting for Ryan, Bay pinch running for Kendrys Morales only after Michael Morse worked a 3-2 count), Raul had to hit. He has hit 20 points lower against lefties in his career and posted a .197 average against them in 2012. True to form, he killed the rally with a double play.

The Mariners proceeded to go five extra innings without sniffing a run, and lost on an RBI groundout in the fourteenth.

The Mariners played 14 innings last night. They struck out 19 times. They had 11 hits, but hit just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They also left 18 players on base in total, including ten in inning-ending fashion. They failed to support another brilliant outing from their $175 million man, and have now lost three consecutive Felix starts.

So has anything changed from 2012? Sure, there are new faces, but if Justin Verlander beats the Mariners today, they fall to 6-11 after their opening home stand. Injuries aside, the Mariners appear to have a long way to go to show legitimate improvement, let alone contend in the American League West.

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Top 11: Reasons to be Optimistic About the 2013 Seattle Mariners

mikemorseThe 2013 baseball season is underway and you don’t know how you should feel about our beloved Seattle Mariners. Fear not, M’s fans. I’m not hear to tell you how you should feel (that’s no one’s place), but I can give you 11 reasons why you might be able to shed some cynicism and believe in this year’s team.

Without further delay…

11. Chone Figgins is gone.

Lest you think three years of vitriol directed towards the Mariners’ sometimes-third baseman was unwarranted, consider this:

In 2012, the team had a record of 75-87 (.451). Chone Figgins appeared in 67 games, during which time the Mariners plodded along at a 26-41 rate (.388). In the remaining 95 games, sans Figgins, the team played at an above-.500 clip, amassing a 49-46 total (.516). Damn near unbelievable.

The trend doesn’t end there, either. Over Figgins’ three-year tenure with the club, the M’s put together a less-than-impressive 203-283 win-loss sum (.418). With their diminutive Donkey from Shrek lookalike in the lineup, the team was just 123-186 (.398). Without him? Try five-plus percentage points higher, .451, at 80-97. So yeah, he actually did make a difference. In the worst way possible.

On top of all that, Figgy just wasn’t very likable, and at the end of the day, paying the guy $8.5 million to go away was worth it simply from a public relations standpoint. The public hated Figgins and now he’s gone. That’s good P.R. if I’ve ever seen it.

10. They get to play Houston 19 times this year.

Nineteen times!!! That’s like 19 games against a semi-pro squad!

I’m telling you right now, the American League Western Division champion will be the team that has the most victories over the Astros. This may as well be a presidential election, and Houston may as well be our Ohio. Swing state, all the way.

9. Felix Hernandez will make at least 30 starts.

That’s like 30 wins right there. A third of our triumphs are basically already counted for.

8. Every A.L. West team has its fair share of warts.

The Mariners may have some question marks at the back end of their rotation, as well as the ever-looming threat of a power outage in the lineup, but they certainly aren’t alone in showcasing a few blemishes on their pate.

Down in Los Angeles (better known to geography aficianados as “Anaheim”), the Angels are dealing with a revamped starting pitching staff that lost an ace (Zack Greinke) and a mainstay (Ervin Santana). Though Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson were obtained to fill the respective voids, one could easily infer that the overall quality of the rotation, one through five, has decreased.

In Oakland, the Athletics are comprised of the usual mish-mash of journeymen, up-and-comers, and no-names. If everything plays to perfection, the team will make a strong push around August, per usual. But as always, the A’s will be in wait-and-see mode until that time. A few key losses along the way and this team has just as good a chance to be out of the playoff picture as they do to be in it come late-summer.

The Rangers were most stricken by defections over the offseason, losing the heart of their order (Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli) and the soul of their team (Michael Young) to other ballclubs. Pitching is always a concern in Texas, and this year is no different. Relying heavily on a de facto ace in Matt Harrison and a soon-to-be-ace in Yu Darvish, the Rangers will need to keep all their arms healthy in order to stay at the top of the standings. An increased workload for Darvish, however, could very well land him on the disabled list by mid-year.

And then there’s Houston…yeah.

Point is, this division is by no means closed. The A’s were AL West champs a year ago, and they’re certainly no favorite to repeat. The Angels are considered the leaders in the clubhouse to finish first, but the same could have been said a year ago and they floundered. The Rangers have been to the World Series twice in the past three years, but they’re a completely different squad this season. The Astros are a punching bag who will serve as a season-long spoiler. And the Mariners are lying in the weeds, on the rise and with the ability to seize a golden opportunity if they so desire. It’s anyone’s race.

7. They have a real-life middle-of-the-order now.

The Mariners’ 2013 Opening Day lineup featured a 5-6-7-8 combo of Justin Smoak, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and Dustin Ackley, in that order. This same quartet was counted on last season to fill out the heart of the team’s lineup, often batting in some arrangement of 2-3-4-5. The difference? The arrivals of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales.

Morse and Morales may not be first-tier major league stars, but they are imposing figures in a lineup that has lacked exactly that for many years now. Each is capable of blasting 30-plus home runs, while neither should sacrifice much in the way of average as they supply that power — Morse is a career .295 batter, while Morales has hit at a .280 pace over his big league tenure.

The presence of the M’s M&M duo has taken a hefty dose of pressure off the likes of the aforementioned youngsters, Smoak, Seager, Montero, and Ackley. Rather than being asked to carry the lineup, these four can now simply focus on contributing. And as a bonus, the team as a whole should see an uptick in offensive production.

6. The bullpen is ridiculous.

Three guys who consistently flirt with triple digits on the radar gun.

A guy who would start for many teams in the league.

A hard-throwing lefty with a (figurative) chip on his shoulder.

A left-handed specialist who can pitch two innings, if needed.

A six-foot-eight-inch ex-starter who can throw in long relief, middle relief, or simply induce a ground ball if needed.

Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, and Tom Wilhelmsen.

Charlie Furbush.

Oliver Perez.

Lucas Luetge.

Kameron Loe.

You might not know all the names yet. But you will.

5. They instituted $5 draft beer at Safeco Field.

Look. We all know this team won’t win every game. Heck, they might not win enough games to make the postseason. It’s a real possibility, and frankly, considered a likelihood at this point. So what do we do when they lose? Drink. And if you happen to be at a game and the team is losing (or, you know, winning — the outcome is kind of irrelevant), you can drink for cheaper than you drank last year.

I noticed a glaring absence at Safeco Field in 2012: cheap beer. Of course, when it comes to big league ballparks, the term “cheap beer” is entirely relative. But two years ago, the team offered more affordable options like Miller High Life and Busch Light for around $6 per pint (as opposed to around $8.75 per pint for your standard American domestic draft).

I made the omission known to my buddy Kevin Martinez, who also doubles as the team’s Vice President of Marketing. Kevin took that information, then went and did us all a solid.

Thanks to Kevin and his team, instead of $6 cheap beers on tap, we now have $5 cheap beers on tap. And that deal exists every day at the ballpark. There’s no special arrangement for this sort of thing. It’s every single day.

The $5 beers are sold at two locations in the stadium: at a new bar behind home plate, right next to the semi-hidden Mariners Hall of Fame; and at a stand right outside the entrance to the Hit It Here Cafe.

They’re not bar prices, they’re not happy hour prices, but for a professional sporting event, this is about as good as it gets. I can’t justify a $9 Bud Light. But I can damn well sip on a $5 High Life and not feel bad about it. In this instance at least, we can thank the organization for doing right by the fans.

4. Ichiro is gone.

We all love Ichiro. He’s a baseball icon, a Mariners legend, and a future Hall of Famer. To label him otherwise would be entirely unjust.

For all his greatness, however, Ichiro served as a symbol of the franchise’s decade-long struggles with ineptitude. Though he bridged the gap from the team’s success of the 116-win 2001 season, Ichiro was not so much a leader as he was an individual talent that existed amidst a backdrop of failure.

As time went by and the Mariners continued their losing ways, Ichiro’s presence became less of a boon and more of a burden on a roster desperate for dramatic turnover. A veritable statue both in right field and atop the batting order, the aging outfielder blocked younger players from reaching the majors (consider that over his playing career, the M’s traded away the likes of Adam Jones and Shin-Soo Choo), and arguably stunted the development of others (Casper Wells and Michael Saunders, to name two).

With Ichiro’s departure last summer, the M’s have finally absolved themselves of the man who had come to personify the organization’s lack of commitment to winning. Entering our first full year without such a stalwart along for the ride will allow the team to finally emerge from the long shadow Ichiro cast upon this entire ballclub.

3. They have players who actually want to be here.

Raul Ibanez is back, and that says a lot. Yeah, the cynics will say that this is just another futile attempt at rekindling the flame with one of Seattle’s favorite sons, but that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Sure, in the past the Mariners have been known to flirt with nostalgia, but the differences between Ibanez and, say, a Ken Griffey Jr. are two-fold. One, Ibanez is still a productive major leaguer, even at the ripe old age of 40. And two, Ibanez elected to play here not out of sentimentality, but because he knows he can make a difference with a team that, believe it or not, has playoff potential.

Mike Morse is back, and that says a lot, too. Shortly after being acquired from the Nationals over the offseason, Morse took to all forms of media (print, radio, social) and announced his unbridled enthusiasm for a return to the Pacific Northwest. It was a little surprising, seeing as how his career never really took off until after the lanky outfielder shed his Mariners uniform, but the giddiness and excitement seemed genuine and resonated with fans at the same time.

These are just two individuals, of course, but if you think back over the past decade, there aren’t too many guys you can name who were this eager to play for the M’s.

“Buying in” is a mantra preached across the street, more synonymous with our football team than the club inhabiting Safeco Field. Short of Pete Carroll positioning himself atop the steps of the first base dugout, however, Morse and Ibanez have single-handedly perpetuated a culture of “team” that has been sorely lacking on this squad for years. Instead of individuals with personal agendas floating through our ballpark before embarking elsewhere, it seems that these two acquisitions (re-acquisitions) alone have changed the mentality of the on-field product for the better.

2. They’re undefeated.

As of print time, the Mariners are 2-0 and by definition among the best teams in Major League Baseball. Though some curmudgeonly pundits will have you believe otherwise, that record and those two initial triumphs are not entirely inconsequential. Every win, any win, is a great thing.

1. They’re likable.

Yeah, I get it. As long as Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong head up this organization, there will always be at least two reasons to loathe the Seattle Mariners. Forget those guys. They happen to be a pair of flies on our glorious buffet spread. They’ll get theirs eventually, and their legacies will always outlive their own regimes. Beyond the dictatorship of two bumbling fools, there’s a lot of good permeating throughout this team.

When it comes to the on-field product, let’s face it, it’s tough to despise the Mariners. There’s no Figgins and no Ichiro. There are no Milton Bradleys, no Jack Custs, no Johjimas or Sexsons or Lopezes or any other albatrosses destined to drag this team through the mud for a season.

This team is young, it’s rejuvenated, it has the potential to be entertaining, to be successful, to be a joy to watch play. It’s filled with promise (Ackley, Seager, Montero, Saunders, Brandon Maurer, to name five) and production (Morse, Morales, Felix, to name three).

There are smiles in the clubhouse, there are players who seem to enjoy one another’s company, and there’s a sense of quiet confidence that can be felt by fans.

There aren’t jerks wearing SEATTLE across their chests. There aren’t any unwarranted, bloated contracts raising eyebrows and lowering hopes. There aren’t slap-hitting pansies trying to pick fights with their manager. There aren’t malcontents pouting on the bench. There aren’t egotists pulling up half-assed on fly balls, unwilling to sell out for their teammates.

For the first time in a long time, this team feels like it’s headed in the right direction. Whether that leads us to the promised land in 2013 remains to be seen. Without a doubt, though, it’s something we can all believe in. That belief alone should be reason for optimism.


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Somewhat Bold Predictions for the Mariners in 2013

Tomorrow is opening day for the Mariners, and you should be PUMPED! The team is undeniably moving in the right direction. This year will be another step forward for Seattle, and they may even surprise some people. I don’t usually like giving super bold predictions, so here is a quick list of somewhat bold predictions I am making for the Mariners this year.

Brendan Ryan hits .270

Ryan has simplified his swing for 2013. Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan literally didn’t hit his own weight in 2012, but that’s not how it has always been. In his first full season in the major leagues, Ryan hit .292 with a .332 BABIP. Sure, the BABIP is a bit high, but it certainly is no indication of a future .194 hitter like he was in 2012. One of the big differences between the Ryan of 2012 and previous years was that he had no luck getting hits from ground balls. His average on line drives was also low which indicates a bit of unluckiness which is supported by his measly .244 BABIP over the season. Common logic tells us that his average will rise back to the mid .200’s. In theory, his adjusted hitting mechanics will cut down on his strikeout rate which has climbed for each of the last two seasons, and his removed bone spur should help him as well. Once you take all these things into consideration, a .270 average from Ryan seems possible.

Blake Beavan doesn’t last the full season in the rotation

If you read my last article, you know that I don’t think much of Blake Beavan. When I look at him, I see a pitcher who pitches to contact but doesn’t know how to get groundballs and doesn’t know how to avoid barrels. His stuff isn’t good enough to bail him out when he makes mistakes, and he tends to make a lot of mistakes. With Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton all sitting in AAA close to being prepared to pitch in Seattle, I don’t see the Mariners giving Beavan a whole lot of slack this season.

The Mariners are within 4 games of division lead in September

This somewhat bold prediction is derived from a gut feeling more than anything else. My main support for this ascertain is a simple, “why not?” The Mariners are a solid team that, with a little extra production, could win 85 games this year, and the division probably doesn’t have a team good enough to run away with the AL West crown unless the Angels’ rotation over performs. Saying that the Mariners will win the division is a bit too bold for me, but saying that they will be the hunt down the stretch is just somewhat bold enough for my liking.

Michael Saunders has a 25/25 year

Last year, Saunders hit 19 homeruns and stole 21 bases. In 2013, he will likely get more at bats and will probably have much better protection in the batting order. Assuming that he continues to progress as a player, a 25/25 year for Saunders would be a bit surprising but certainly not unrealistic.

King Felix wins his second Cy Young award

Again, why not? There is no doubt that Felix Hernandez has good enough stuff to win the Cy Young, and this year his numbers should get a little help from the games he will pitch against the Astros instead of the Angels. The improved offense should provide a few more wins which will give him some extra votes. Seattle’s stellar defense should also help his case. Even with the fences moving in, Safeco won’t be easy on batters and Felix’ numbers outside of Safeco have never been much worse than at home. In fact, he has allowed more homeruns at home than on the road in several different seasons. The dimensions shouldn’t have a significant impact of the King.

Franklin Gutierrez gets traded

The pieces match up for a trade like this happening. It’s his last year under contract, the Mariners could use to dump his salary, he doesn’t seem to be in the organization’s future, and he could fetch a decent return. It’s a perfect situation for Seattle. It’s not often that a gold glove caliber centerfielder gets traded, but if it is going to happen this summer, it will probably happen to Guti.

Mike Zunino makes his major league debut before the all star break

Zunino is spring training. Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Zunino has thrived in every level of competition he has seen thus far. He will start 2013 on the doorstep of the major leagues, and with nothing more than a defensively inept catcher standing between him and a major league starting job, it doesn’t seem like he’ll have to wait very long to get his major league debut. Prior to the all star break may be a bit optimistic, but it is doable. His ETA will also vary based upon a few other players.

Smoak has a .800 OPS

It seems a bit unrealistic, doesn’t it? Let me lay out a scenario for you. Justin Smoak will replicate his typical walk rate of about 10% while finally posting a somewhat respectable BABIP. With a tad bit of luck, his OBP should sit around .350 in this scenario. In order to achieve his .800 OPS he will need to slug .450. This is a stretch for Smoak, but we know he has made some changes at the plate. If his Spring Training is any indication of his future, a .450 slugging percentage could just barely be in reach. He hit as many doubles in spring training as he did in five months in 2012. If Chris Johnson can reach a .450 SLG%, Smoak should be able to.

The team ERA drops

Considering that Hector Noesi won’t be pitching every five days in 2013, this somewhat bold prediction looks pretty good. I prefer Joe Saunders to Jason Vargas and I think Iwakuma will improve in his sophomore year. With some added experience in the bullpen, the team ERA is prone to drop in 2013.

The season attendance reaches 2,500,000 fans

The club has received a minor facelift, the ballpark has seen some remodeling, the promotions are stellar, and the weather appears to be wonderful; there is no reason why 2,500,000 fans shouldn’t enter Safeco Field for the first time since 2007. Get out and watch some games!

Happy baseball season!

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(Maybe) This is The Year

SafecoFieldTopIn between Sunday afternoons spent watching Nickelodeon Guts and Family Double Dare and all the other kid shows that permeated every kid’s existence in the kid-friendly, kid-centric Nineties, I was a baseball fan. My summers were punctuated by bruises and scuffed knees and mosquito bites that only seemed to multiply each time I scratched them. I had a glove with Ken Griffey Jr.’s name burned into the pocket, a wardrobe full of blue and yellow Mariners apparel, snapback caps with an “S” on the crown, and this belief, however foolish, that I would one day grow up to be them.

Throughout the duration of every season, I would type up, print out, and maintain a list of each player on the Mariners’ active roster. Jersey number, name, and position. If Dann Howitt got called up from Triple-A, then by god you’d find me in front of a Macintosh Classic typing Howitt’s information into Microsoft Works. And if I went to a game to discover that Howitt’s jersey number had inexplicably been switched from 23 to 44, upon arriving home that edit would be made, saved, printed, and kept. I could give you the details on every single player, from No. 1 (Greg Briley and Brian Turang) all the way to No. 96 (Mak Suzuki).

Fashion conscious as I was, my mother let me dress myself from an early age. So unlike many of my elementary school peers, adorned in expensive button-ups from Nordstrom and pants that didn’t have an elastic waistband, I was as comfortable and content as any child could possibly be — in third grade, for example, I wore shorts for an entire school year, just because. Mostly, though, I attired myself in t-shirts with cartoon images of Junior on the front, “life-size” jersey replicas of Randy Johnson, and colorful advertisements for the American League Western Division. I wore those shirts down to their last threads. I sweat and fought and bled and cried in those shirts. I had unforgettable experiences in those shirts. I lived an entire adolescence with sweatshirts tied around my waist, securing those shirts through recess after recess as we tossed Nerf Vortex Screamers, held footraces, shot baskets, kicked red rubber spheres, and chased our imaginations across wood chips and dirt fields.

I sat on metal benches — some with red backs, some with orange — and devoured nachos, peanuts, hot dogs, Milk Duds, and any other stadium fare one could conceivably dream up. I blew bubbles of Green Apple Bubblicious gum, then stuffed the popped remains into my lower lip to look like the ballplayers with their chewing tobacco, the ones whose bad habits I couldn’t help but emulate. I stood in the Kingdome concourse and marveled at the souvenir stands, staring down brand new caps, jerseys, jackets, pennants, trading card sets, pins, replica helmets, mini bats, photo balls, blow up bones, everything. Who didn’t want a gold No. 24 necklace? So what if it was $10? It was $10 well spent.

There was no cynicism in those days. We were bad, but we were a dignified sort of bad. We had never won, so there was no expectation to win. Our guys, they just played baseball. And when they won, we were happy. And when they lost, we moved on. We watched players come and go, the ones who wanted to be here staying until those star-crossed seasons when we actually began to win. They led us proudly into a world of expectation. When they left, when we lost again, our innocence was replaced by that cynicism, by a bit of newfound impatience that couldn’t be satiated until we won again. We won again. And even those players left. We lost again. We haven’t won since.

Every spring we find ourselves in this position. The days get longer, the sun shines brighter, and we start believing that maybe, just maybe, this will be the year. So what if we were downright mediocre last season? So what if our competition improved? Do you see that sunshine? Do you feel that warmth? It’s almost summertime! If the clouds can dissipate and the rain can cease and the sun can shine here, now…well, anything must be possible. We are easily swayed, us Mariner fans. Or maybe we’re just blessed with bigger hearts, bigger imaginations, and smaller whatever-it-is that makes you think clearly even in the face of sheer obviousness.

There’s a chance. We get to play the Astros 19 times this year. Nineteen! And the Astros might not even win a game. Really, they’re that bad.

We have a middle-of-the-order now: Kendrys Morales, Mike Morse, Jesus Montero. We have hitters that actually scare pitchers — or if not scare them, perhaps make their blood pressure rise just a tad.

We have an ace, a King, and he’s not going anywhere for a long time. Players want to play with him, for him. They certainly don’t want to go against him. He’s our fulcrum. Everyone knows it, and everyone respects it.

We have pitchers who can pitch, hitters who can hit, fielders who can field, we got real jerseys and everything! Okay, so maybe that’s oversimplifying things a bit. But we’re not bad. We’re at least okay. And okay sometimes has a way of spiraling its way into good, which can sometimes spiral its way into great. And from there, who knows.

Mostly, though, we have players who won’t make a mockery of our memories. We have guys who want to wear a Mariners uniform. Guys like Felix Hernandez, who cried tears of joy when he inked a contract that will keep him here for the better part of the next decade. Guys like the aforementioned Morse, who was ecstatic upon learning he had been traded to the first organization that ever let him play in the big leagues. Guys like Raul Ibanez, who signed on to finish his career in Seattle just because he likes it here. Every time we’ve ever won, we’ve had players who truly wanted to be in Seattle. Players that made you like them, if for no other reason than the fact that they seemed to understand, in some way or another, that you as a child had worn the same logo they now wore, had scraped your knees in that logo the way they scraped theirs, had sweat in that logo just as they now sweat.

We don’t ask for much in Seattle. We’re an enigma to sports fans outside our corner of the map. We don’t demand winners so much as we beg for them. We don’t expect success so much as we bask in its aura. At the end of the day, all we really ask for is new memories to be made and old memories to be enhanced. Winning, as it turns out, has a way of fulfilling both those requests.

The Seattle Mariners are dealing with a generation of fans who grew up wearing the colors and the emblem of a team that sucked, but sucked in a beautifully organic, pure, simple way. Our innocence mirrored the innocence of an entire organization. We grew up together, and as we’ve grown up, our experiences have shaped the way we approach the future in tandem with one another. We can be cynical at times, we can be unsatisfied quite frequently, we can be down on our prospects, upset with our situation.

But every spring, right about this time of year, all of that is replaced by unbridled optimism. We see the good in one another — us in them, them in us — and we believe that this might just possibly be the year. Maybe. Maybe this is the year.


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Seattle Mariners Deal with Felix Hernandez Complete; Press Conference Weds. at 2PM PST

Aug 21, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) pitches against the Cleveland Indians during the 4th inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

It’s official; the Seattle Mariners have come to a contract agreement with “King” Felix Hernandez. It looks like the initial reports broken last week by USA Today were, in fact, accurate. Felix Hernandez will be signed to a 7-year contract, including the last two years on his current contract, and stretching into 2020 for around $175 million dollars.

The official details will come out tomorrow in a press conference to be streamed live on MLB.com at 2:00 PM PST. The final two years of Hernandez’s current contract, totaling $40.5 million, have been replaced by the new contract. Hernandez is in Peoria and took his physical at the side of his fellow pitcher and catcher teammates today.

It was also rumored at the end of last week that the real reason Hernandez dropped out of the World Baseball Classic was due to an arm injury. However, this appears to be unfounded, and the Mariners organization has reported that he was finalizing contract negotiations.

Hernandez will be returning to Seattle tomorrow to appear in the press conference at Safeco Field. He won the Cy Young award in 2010, and he has spent his entire career with the Mariners. Barring any future surprises, it looks like he will be a lifelong Mariner, joining the ranks of Edgar Martinez.

Check back tomorrow for more updates and details that will emerge during the press conference.

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Kings Cost More

I find the Felix extension—if it’s true—an interesting case study in how a particular team’s situation can make potentially make a difference in both how negotiations are conducted and how fans perceive the result. But before I get into that, let’s get right to the data. Below I have the King’s year-by-year values to this point—taking the average of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR. The last column is his approximate free-agent value over that time.

Year

WAR

Value

2006

2.5

$9.1

2007

3.9

$15.3

2008

3.7

$15.2

2009

6.2

$26.8

2010

6.4

$29.0

2011

4.3

$20.5

2012

5.4

$26.8

Total

32.3

$142.7

 

Here, I have attempted to estimate some reasonable boundaries for how he will perform going forward. In the favorable outcome, I have also allowed for 7% inflation. In the less favorable outcome—including an injury shortened year in an arbitrarily chosen 2016—I only accounted for 5% inflation. I hope this gives us some reasonable boundaries for the expected value of his contract. Notice that I’m considering this a 7-year contract for $175M because for all intents and purposes, that’s what it is.

Year

WAR

Value

WAR

Value

2013

5.5

$30.3

5.5

$30.3

2014

5.5

$32.4

5.0

$28.9

2015

5.5

$34.6

4.5

$27.3

2016

5.0

$33.7

2.5

$15.9

2017

4.5

$32.4

3.5

$23.4

2018

4.0

$30.9

3.0

$21.1

2019

3.5

$28.9

2.5

$18.4

Total

33.5

$223.1

26.5

$165.2

 

I would consider the left option to be a little optimistic. Though our King is only 26 years old, he has already logged 7+ seasons of more than 1600 innings. His arm’s age is probably a little older than his birth date would imply. The outcome on the right might be a little pessimistic, but perhaps better accounts for injury and lost value. But if we look at these boundaries—which are admittedly guesses at best—the contract doesn’t look all that bad.

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

There’s one major issue, though, that I haven’t discussed. Hernandez signed* this contract for what we believe to be $175M two years before free agency. There is currently no competition for his services. He said he wants to stay in Seattle, and the front office said they want him to stay in Seattle. Hernandez and his agent, Alan Nero, shouldn’t have had any leverage in the negotiations. Except they obviously did. Felix is getting free-agent money and free-agent length during a time when there’s no free-agenty competition for his services.

Last off-season, Matt Cain signed an extension one year before free agency. Cain, 27 at the time with 7+ seasons of wear and tear, got six years for $127M—$21M per season—with a vesting option for the seventh year. Vesting options aren’t quite as team-friendly as team options, but still team-friendly for sure.  Cain is probably only slightly less valuable than Hernandez. In fact, Hernandez’s top B-R comparable is Cain. Over the last five seasons, Cain’s ERA in his pitcher-friendly ballpark has been 3.09. Hernandez’s in his pitcher-friendly park, 2.92. It’s hard to measure Cain by fWAR because he defies it, but bWAR suggests Cain is worth about one less win per season. That, perhaps justifies his $21M-per-year contract (with vesting option) to Felix’s $25M-per-year contract (with extra year). Or maybe both contracts—being the largest of their kind—simply represent the high end, and they’re both bad deals for the team.

In the end, the contract is not awful, and I’m as glad as you that the King’s court will be in session every fifth night in Seattle for a long time. It just hurts a little that we couldn’t get a more team-friendly deal. Maybe one that doesn’t use up 30% of the team’s payroll until my hair goes grey. It seems like the fans’ decade of suffering might have given Nero the leverage he needed to strike a player-friendly deal. But I quibble…

 

*Pending

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Are the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez Signing a New Contract?

Sep 21, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) reacts in the dugout during the 1st inning between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers during the 1st inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

While USA Today and ESPN have both reported that Felix Hernandez has signed a new contract with the Seattle Mariners for $175 million dollars for a seven-year deal, the Mariners organization has made no official release of this announcement. This is the third report of contract extension negotiations between King Felix and the Mariners to occur since December. The previous two were reported by the MLB network, stating that the Mariners wanted to make the star pitcher a Mariner for life, and Bleacher Report who announced that Hernandez and the Mariners were in negotiations. The Mariners stated that they had no such discussion.

Before we all start celebrating and discussing the historic nature of this large contract, we should ask whether the report is, in fact, true. Greg Johns, like myself, does not believe that an anonymous “person familiar with the contract details” is strong enough to lead me to count my chickens before they hatch. While I would celebrate as much as everyone else would should Hernandez sign the contract, it’s such a large and historic deal, I think that we are best served by making sure the announcement is official before we all start toasting with our beer steins.

If the USA Today report by Bob Nightengale is accurate, the contract will be finalized prior to Spring Training. Hernandez will receive $25 million a year on average rather than the original $19 million and $20 million he is contracted to receive in 2012 and 2013. That makes some of the highly lucrative deals we’ve seen this offseason seem small in comparison. He would also be the highest paid pitcher in MLB history.

If you’re concerned about the length of the reported contract, consider that Hernandez is only 26 at the moment. When the contract expires, he will be 33, still pretty young by Mariners standards.

What do  you think? Are the reports legitimate? There have been so many different rumor reports about contract extensions with Hernandez over the past few months, that I’m waiting for the official announcement before celebrating. When or if it comes through, I think we should all virtually toast one another on the retention of the 2012 Cy Young Award finalist (he was fourth in the voting).

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King Felix a Mariner for Life?

Sep 21, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) reacts in the dugout during the 1st inning between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers during the 1st inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

There’s been talk around the offseason rumor mills about Seattle Mariners’ star pitcher Felix Hernandez. Namely, the rumor goes something like this: The Mariners want to make King Felix a “Mariner for life,” but given the recent contracts many big name pitchers have signed, Zack Greinke for example, it’s just not in the cards for the Ms.

In August, King Felix threw a perfect game, making him just the twenty-third player in MLB history to do so. Not only is he the Mariners’ best player currently, but he’s also coming up for a contract expiration, and he’ll only be 28 years old. That makes him a prime target for many negotiations from other teams.

In light of this, many fans are panicking based upon the recent contracts signed by the likes of Zack Greinke for $147 million over six years with the Dodgers. They speculate that Hernandez, having seen these figures, won’t want to settle for what the Ms budget can supply him with.

The question remains, what do you think Felix will do? Will he stay with the team that made him a superstar, or will he jump ship to the highest bidder? While one can speculate that high salaries for pitchers elsewhere would put the Mariners in a tenuous situation when it comes to resigning Hernandez as a “Mariner for Life,” it also seems reasonable to believe that perhaps there are things that the Seattle team can offer its finest star in terms of incentives for remaining where he’s at.

What do you think? What would you do if you were in King Felix’s shoes?

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Five Things I’m Thankful For

May 23, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Alex Liddi (16) is interviewed after getting a baseball hat full of shaving cream after the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Texas 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! To honor this wonderful day, I would like to metaphorically raise my glass to five wonderful events from this last year of Mariner baseball.

1.) The Parting of “Friends”

Note that “friends” is in quotation marks. I did not shed a single tear between the release of Chone Figgins or the trades of Ichiro and Brandon League. Figgins was an absolute disaster with the Mariners, and I feel relieved to know that I will never have to look at him wear a Seattle Mariner uniform again.

Ichiro did a lot of good things for the Mariner organization and the city of Seattle during his stint here, but it was time for him to go. He was no longer contributing to the team’s success and he seemed to cast a negative spell over the locker room. Following Ichiro’s departure, the team excelled which proved that parting with him was the right decision.

Although his stats were not terrible, Brandon League gave every Mariner fan a heart attack every time he stepped on the mound. There was no such thing as a save without suspense for League, and most were glad to see him sent to Los Angeles were he can no longer scare us. The fact that we got a few decent prospects in return was just the icing on the cake.

I am very thankful that each of those players are no longer Seattle Mariners.

2.) The Making of History

On August fifteenth, King Felix threw the 23rd perfect game in baseball history. All of us got to witness history and one of the finest moments in Mariner history. His performance that afternoon was absolutely masterful and the fan reaction was very exciting as well. For Felix’ following start, Safeco Field filled with fans, and the King’s court was spread throughout the whole stadium. I hadn’t seen that much energy in Safeco in almost a decade. The fan base needed the boost that the perfect game gave, and I’m sure all of us are thankful that Felix achieved perfection that day.

3.) The Coming of New Players

This year’s MLB Draft was very productive for the Mariners. The third overall pick, Mike Zunino, had a phenomenal first year in the minor leagues. His .538 wOBA and 234 wRC+ in short season Everett confirmed his status as a prospect and he is now ranked the 44th best prospect in baseball and 3rd best catching prospect. There were several other good selections made in the draft. Names like Joe DeCarlo, Tyler Pike, Patrick Kivlehan, Chris Taylor, and Timothy Lopes have already started to gain attention just months after being drafted by Seattle.

4.) The Stadium Alterations

The fences are moving in! This has been an idea tossed around by Mariner fans for years. While there are pros and cons to the change, the Seattle offense which has been at the bottom of the league for years, will certainly get some help from the shorter fences, but the pitching staff will struggle more. However, considering the strong future of the pitching staff, I feel confident that we will continue to have a solid staff and still get more run production from the batters. The smaller field also allows Seattle to pursue and attract top free agent bats. This was a very good all-around move for the organization.

5.) The Astros

Tired of being in the division cellar? At least for now, the Marines will no longer be the worst team in the AL West with the Astros around. Having the 107-loss Astros in the west will also mean that Seattle will have more games against the poor Houston team and far less against the three good teams in the division.

Overall, there has been a lot to be thankful for over the past year, and I hope that we will have many more things to express our gratefulness for in a year from now.

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