Cliff Lee

Mariners Sign Young International Talent

I’m a little late on this one… but, at least I’m not the only one that it’s a behind the curve.  But, it appears that the Mariners and their ace Canadian and European scout Wayne Norton have signed another interesting prospect, Alexandre … [visit site to read more]


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Series Preview: Phillies @ Mariners

It has been a while since I did one of these and when Justin from “That Balls Outta Here” contacted me to collaborate on one I couldn’t turn him down. I’ve got a few different e-mails/comments from people who liked these and so I’ll try to do more when I can. But until then here we go!

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Philadelphia Phillies

2011 Regular Season Record: 44 – 26, 1st in NL East (5.0 Lead)

Seattle Mariners

2011 Regular Season Record: 35- 34, 2nd in AL West (0.5 GB)

… [visit site to read more]


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Harrison is crazy

Sit down for a second and read what I’ve written. Don’t go directly to the comments and flame me. What until you hear the whole argument and then flame away.

Done and done. Now I get to flame away, right? Just kidding. … [visit site to read more]


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Why I Still Trust Jack Zduriencik

In-Z-We-Trust

Mariners fans should still feel this way.

The longer I watch, write about, and discuss baseball with my peers, the more confused I become by the knee-jerk reaction crowd. After last season, I heard countless callers, and saw many comments around the blogosphere where people were asking why Jack Zduriencik’s job was secure after such a terrible losing season with an absolutely abysmal offense and a clubhouse full of cliques. I’m going to sound like a jerk here, but all I could think was “What is wrong with all of you?!”

While the 2009 Mariners only overachieved by a few games, fans have yet to grasp the magnitude of just how much the 2010 Mariners underperformed. Sure, the acquisitions of Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins, and the re-signing of Ken Griffey, Jr. didn’t inspire visions of winning the world series, but trading three mediocre prospects for Cliff Lee certainly enthused the fan base. The Lee trade was essentially what launched “believe big” marketing campaign, and for good reason. Let’s take a look at the big acquisitions for 2010′s team, and compare their 2009 and 2010 WAR. 2009 WAR is first, with 2010 WAR in parenthesis.

Casey Kotchman: 1.0 (-1.1)
Chone Figgins: 6.1 (0.6)
Milton Bradley: 1.1 (-0.1) [Was worth 4.6 WAR in 2008]
Cliff Lee: 6.6 (7.1–traded mid-season)

Pretty atrocious. It’s hard to really criticize Zduriencik for not predicting that the position players he acquired would severely underperform relative even to just the season before. It would have been foolish to expect Kotchman to become better than in 2009, however, it is equally foolish to believe that he would become perhaps the MLB’s worst regular player just a year later. While Figgins was not going to produce 6 WAR again, it would have been ridiculous to expect him to fall that far off the cliff. Bradley’s 1.1 WAR in 2009 could partially be explained by injuries, and while durability is a skill, Bradley still was a decent hitter in 2009. To have expected him to be a negative value player in 2010 would have been absurd as well. Cliff Lee being traded was largely necessary because of the underperforamnce of those three players.

It’s not just the new acquisitions that underperformed, though. Let’s take a look at some returning players from 2009′s squad.

Ken Griffey, Jr.: 0.3 (-0.8)
Jose Lopez: 2.6 (0.7)
Franklin Gutierrez: 6.1 (2.3)
Jack Wilson: 2.0 (0.0)
Rob Johnson: 0.8 (0.4)

Again, it’s hard to imagine all of these players would have fallen this far off of the map. While it could have been seen that Junior may fall off a cliff due to his age, he wasn’t really being counted on to be a great hitter. Regardless, -0.8 WAR in just 33 games is worse than most would have expected. Lopez wasn’t going to hit 25 homers again, but losing almost 2 WAR in value while entering his physical prime could not have been predicted. Gutierrez’s fall, while disappointing, was a bit more predictable, but he was still a valuable player.

This group of players (not counting Lee, since he was traded, and I don’t have his Mariner-only WAR numbers) was worth 20 wins in 2009. These same players were worth 2 WAR in 2010. These players’ production fell 18 wins in just one season, with only one of them, Griffey, really being a candidate for precipitous decline. If anyone can rationally explain to me how a general manager could predict that, well, I’d love to hear it.

When looking at the current roster, rich in young developing talent, and the minor league system, which is far deeper than it ever was in the Bavasi era, it’s hard for me not to give Zduriencik a total free pass on 2010. With neutral luck, Zduriencik’s team should perform markedly better in 2011, and hopefully end speculation that his job is in danger.


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2010 in Review: Érik Bédard

Seattle Mariners' starter Erik Bedard pitches against the Texas Rangers' in the first inning at SAFECO Field in Seattle on July 12, 2009. The Mariners beat the Rangers 5-3 to take three out of four games. (UPI Photo/Jim Bryant) Photo via NewscomThis picture is not from 2010.

Erik Bedard didn’t pitch in 2010.  He was supposed to return in mid-June and join Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee in one of the greatest one-two-three punches in Mariners history.  Then the M’s started to tank and the management figured that since Erik wasn’t doing particularly well in his rehab assignments they may as well shut him down for the season – before his season even began.

Outlook: Bedard might return to the M’s in 2011.  He might not.  He’d certainly help out the club if healthy, but in all likelihood he won’t be, so I’d prefer the M’s non re-sign him.


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2010 in Review: Cliff Lee

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York City on June 29, 2010.    UPI/John Angelillo Photo via Newscom

Cliff Lee was everything we’d hoped he would be. The same cannot be said for the rest of his teammates.

Over the course of 13 starts in his Seattle Mariners career, Cliff was dominant.  He averaged 7.96 innings per start, struck out 89 batters, walked a total of 6, and ran a minuscule Fielding Independent Pitching line of  2.16.  Cliff Lee is a pitcher who does everything well.  He throws strikes.  He misses bats.  He gets ahead of hitters.  He doesn’t throw his fastball too much.  And he induces his fair share of ground-balls.

I was present at two games that Lee started this season.  In the first, Cliff went seven scoreless innings and struck out eight Rangers, but the M’s offense couldn’t get anything going against the Rangers’ Colby Lewis.  The team lost in 12 innings, despite having the bases loaded on two separate occasions.  You might remember that game.  In the second game I was present at, Lee cruised seven innings only to have his defense fail him completely in the eighth.  Cliff struck out five and walked none in eight innings and was credited with a “loss.”

Those two games were notably indicative of both Cliff Lee’s overall 2010 performance and that of the Seattle Mariners’ offense.  Cliff couldn’t do anything wrong, but the M’s couldn’t do anything right.

In case you missed it, Cliff’s K-BB ratio in Seattle was almost 15:1, and he got hitters to swing and miss over 9% of the time he threw a pitch.  His numbers were ungodly, and now he’s gone.  Good thing we still have Felix Hernandez to ease the pain.

Let it also be noted that Cliff Lee helped us turn Philippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez into Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, and Matt Lawson.  Aumont has been moved back to the bullpen, Gillies’ development has stalled, and Ramirez has appeared extremely hittable in AA.  Oh, and Gillies was recently charged with Cocaine possession.  On the other hand, Smoak hit .325/.400/.575 in his 45 September plate appearances, including three mammoth home runs hit against his former organization, and Josh Lueke (despite his legal troubles) put up a composite K/9 over 12 this season.

Outlook: Cliff Lee probably won’t return to the Mariners next season, barring a miracle (Eric Wedge, anyone?), but he will continue to be awesome.  If there’s anyone that deserves a World Series ring, it’s Cliff Lee.


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More thoughts on Eric Wedge

[Griffin's Note: I'd like to welcome SoDo Mojo's newest contributor, Keith Myers aboard. We believe bringing him on staff will help to insure more consistent content,  while adding a different voice to the blog.]

With the news today that the M’s are expected to hire Eric Wedge as their next manager, I decided to do a little research into his teams in Cleveland to see if it might give us any indication about him as a manager.

  • When he took over in 2003, the Indians had an average age of just 27.1 years.
  • The team stayed young for the next few years with an average age of 28.7, 27.4, 27.7, 28.3, 28.1 and 27.4
  • Wedge was manager as the team groomed some very talented young players, like Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee.
  • Wedge was fired at the end of the 2009 season. By then, all of the above players has been traded away except Haffner.

To me what this shows is Wedge has experience dealing with young players, and helping those players reach their potential. Accounts of Wedge that I’ve read say that he’s good at getting his players to play smart, fundamental baseball, which is something the Mariners need.

The problem is, before Wedge can work on getting the most out of the talent that’s on the team, the M’s need to find a way to get some real talent added to the roster. Unless that happens it won’t matter who the manager is.


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Great Pitching on deck for the postseason but what about hitting?

   There is a lot of discussion online and in the mainstream media about the great pitching talent that will be on display starting this weekend. Yes indeed we have Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay combined with Mariano Rivera, Roy Oswalt and a large second tier of starters and relievers.  

  To hear everyone go on you might think that everyone just loves to see 1-0 and 2-1 games. Well despite the fact that my Grandfather GordonDustyRhodes was a pitcher from 1929-36, I never pitched and in fact don’t care for them much!

You see  I love the  sound of the crack of the bat on the sweet spot as a line shot jumps off the bat, and I would venture to guess quite a few of you do too. Don’t get me wrong I love a great pitchers duel now and then but I am hoping to see some high scoring games in the next week or so. The question is will it happen? The cards are stacked against the hitters these days with speciality relief guys, pitchers hitting 100 on the radar and parks like Safeco built for pitchers.

  So it’s only logical that everyone is just talking about the pitchers who will be competing rather than wondering which team will score more runs and actually beat another team by putting runs across the plate.

   As I was thinking about all this it occurred to me that there really are only a small group of players at any give time who are great hitters. This has been true throughout baseball history. Most batters have good bat-speed, hand-eye coordination and the ability to watch endless films and graphs on opposing pitchers to try and get ready, yet still will look bad against modern pitching. There are a few players that have the ability to read a ball coming out of the pitchers hand and adjust their approach instantly and make contact, Ichiro is one of these fortunate few. There also is a small group like  Vladimir Guerrero who seem to be able to hit any ball pitched anywhere using some bizarre combination of luck and daring, but again these guys are few and far between.

  Sadly most of the rest are just up there guessing and in that case are totally at the mercy of guys like Lee and Lincecum and will look dumb trying.

   But alas there is one other group of hitters some of who are involved in the postseason ie A-Rod, Michael Young, Derick Jeter and a few others, who possess the rarest skill amongst hitters known as:” Anticipation”. Anticipation is not guessing or adapting to a pitch as it comes in. Anticipation is more of a feeling or sense that great hitters have bases on their ability to calculate everything that has happened prior to the incoming pitch, a look on the pitchers face, and basically just instinct. Anticipation is also used on defense, for example  like Willie Mays would often begin moving towards where the ball is going to be hit even before the swing!

  As a player I can remember being “in the zone” so to speak from time to time and being able to anticipate both at the plate and on defense. It is one of those things that you either have or you don’t. Barry Bonds had it, Ruth had it and maybe 1,000 guys who have passed through the majors over the years “had It” to some degree or the other. The rest were mostly just guessing and batting .250 or less.

  This years Mariners featured practically a whole lineup of guys guessing and missing night after night. I believe Mike Sweeney was in the “Zone” off and on this year and it showed with his OPS. Hopefully Sweeney will get a chance to come off the bench for the Phillies this year in a clutch situation and connect for some paydirt using his gut intinct to let him know what is coming. You see if you are up at the plate and your full of fear and your mind is racing trying to outguess a guy like  

  Now I know the sabermetrics crowd probably considers this sort of talk heresy. But the reality is that great players end up with great stats offensively when they can anticipate the next pitch and be ready to slam it when it comes in. There may be no logical explanation for this unique gift or skill but it exists and is what seperates good hitter from Great Hitters

   So I have a feeling, maybe a hunch or perhaps anticipation that the bats are going to come alive in the next few weeks along with the great pitching and we may be in for some great high scoring games! http://jeffsmariners.com


Tagged: Cliff Lee, Gordon Dusty Rhodes, Great hitters Anticipation, Willie Mays defense

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I’m Convinced

I’ve been hung up on the AL Cy Young award for quite awhile now. Obviously I’m inclined to throw my undying support at Felix, but I’d prefer to do it for the right reasons, and I’m finally convinced that he deserves the award – not necessarily more than say, Cliff Lee or Francisco Liriano, but he deserves it. I didn’t want to support him just because he was the popular pick among statisticians, but with the way he’s pitched recently, and the current leader boards the way they are, I don’t have any problem doing it.

Just look at the numbers. Aside from Cliff Lee, who I would not be disappointed to see the award go to, mind you, Felix has the highest WAR in the league, at 6.4. His xFIP of 3.27 ranks 3rd, behind Francisco Liriano, who has sustained his 3.07 mark over significantly fewer innings, and Jon Lester. Strikeouts? He’s got 232 of them, the most in baseball. Like inning eaters? He’s thrown 249 2/3, second to the one and only Roy Halladay, by exactly one inning. Not so big on sabermetrics? He has a 2.27 ERA, too.

The fact is, no matter what stats you subscribe to, Felix Hernandez has been one of, if not the very best pitcher in the American League – unless, of course, you subscribe to win-loss record, in which case you probably shouldn’t be reading this blog. Similar arguments can be made for Lee and Liriano as well, and as long as one of those 3 comes away with the award, no injustice has been committed. CC Sabathia, on the other hand, really has nothing but wins going for him, and those wins mean a whole lot less when you pitch for the Yankees.

The Cy Young voters made a ton of progress last season when they went with Tim Lincecum (15 wins) and Zack Greinke (16 wins), and they have a chance to continue that progress in 2010.


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Even The M’s IT Team Has Mailed It In

Note the date and time, and give that little blurb there a read.

This actually appeared on the Mariners website for a short time last week before getting rectified. Props to loyal reader Michael for capturing the image before it got taken down.


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The Aftermath

Pretty swing.

The Mariners have officially won the Cliff Lee deal.

Mariners get: 13 starts from Cliff Lee (4.0 WAR in 2010), Justin Smoak (Considered to be the sixth-best overall prospect in baseball), Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, and Matt Lawson.

Phillies get: J.C. Ramirez, Philippe Aumont, and Tyson Gillies.

Rangers get:13-15 starts from Cliff Lee and a possibly broken Mark Lowe.

Allow me to follow up my rather bold statement with the following: I’m generally a pretty pessimistic person.  I get it from my grandfather.  Every time we watch an M’s game together, he’s surprised when anything positive happens and expects a 10-0 loss.  My pessimism is similar, but of a lesser degree; I usually only predict a 9-0 loss.  So, naturally, I was a bit perturbed when I found out that Jack Zduriencik had dealt Cliff Lee to the Rangers.  I wasn’t surprised that Lee had been traded; rather I was surprised about the team to whom he had been traded.  Sure, the Rangers aren’t the Angels, and they almost certainly won’t sign Lee during the off-season, but I had had my heart set on the Yankees’ catching prospect Jesus Montero.  Additionally, on the off-chance that the Rangers should sign Lee, the M’s would have delivered arguably the best pitcher in baseball to an up-and-coming division rival.

So I did a little research on Justin Smoak, and I began to like the guy more and more.  Defensively, Smoak seems pretty comparable to Casey Kotchman.  Fortunately, he profiles much better than Kotch on the offensive side of things. Jon Shields over at ProBallNW wrote of Smoak:

The results haven’t been great, but he’s played better than the numbers would indicate.  Smoak is a switch hitter with power and a great approach at the plate, garnering comparisons to superstars Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez.  Whether he ever plays at that level remains to be seen, but Seattle now has their first baseman figured out for the foreseeable future.

As long as he's striking out hitters, I don't care what shenanigans he gets into off the field.

Justin Smoak appears to be the Michael Pineda of position players in that he’s pretty good, but not great, at each aspect of the game.  He doesn’t do anything spectacularly well, but he hits, fields, takes pitches, and apparently runs at an above-average rate.  The 20-25 home run power hasn’t arrived yet – and it may never – but Smoak is a safe bet to put up nifty UZR numbers and a batting line around .270/.360/.420 for years to come. And hey, he’s under team control for 6.5 more years since the Rangers seem to have his Major League service time.

As for the other three prospects, two appear to have some definite promise.  I like Lueke a lot (not just because of the gaudy strikeout numbers, but even more so because he has a Twitter account), and the 6′7″ control specialist Beavan could end up as Doug Fister 2.0.  Matt Lawson, however, sucks.  The non-headliner prospects the M’s would have gotten from the Yanks are, in my opinion, a notch better than the ones they actually acquired in the Lee deal, but Jack Zduriencik clearly has an eye for talent and for the time being I won’t question his judgment.

And to our dear friend Cliff Lee, I offer a parting haiku.

His tenure cut short

Cliff a Mariner no more

Strikeouts like spare change


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Lee up in Smoak!

   Well it is finally over, the Cliff Lee sweepstakes ended today with Lee traded to the Texas Rangers along with Mark Lowe for Justin Smoak and three prospects. Apparently the Mariners are having to send over two million dollars as well to complete the deal. So once again we find ourselves in the familiar position of trading away another star for prospects so we can rebuild. Granted Justin Smoak is a young first baseman with some power but for us fans it is another reminder of our role as a farm-club for the rest of Major league baseball.

  As the day broke it looked like Cliff Lee was going to the Yankees in exchange for Jesus Montero and David Adams, but apparently the Mariners had concerns with the health of David Adams. The Rangers who are making a serious run for the play-offs threw-in pitchers Josh Lueke, Blake Beaven and AA infielder Matthew Lawson. Not quite sure how this helps the Mariners as we already have Russell Branyan and Casey Kotchman at first, but who are we to question why as ours is but to trade and cry.

  Mark Lowe though on the DL for the year was very effective last year coming in to set-up David Aardsma. I am not sure why we did not try to get some help for our current bullpen which is a disaster so far this year. But Jack Zduriencik has announced that we got the best deal possible and he had his eye on Smoak all along. I was also shocked to hear Jack Z. say our goal is to build a World Championship team. It is funny that the goal of reaching the World Series is never mentioned until we are in the rebuilding mode after a big trade, whereas the party-line is always “we are going to put a competitive team on the field”. Sounds like the old bait-n-switch trick to me in order to keep the fans buying tickets to support this never-ending rebuilding process.

  So now the spin will start….

 Will the local press get onboard and cheer for Jack Z. in order to keep their access like in the past? I don’t know but it is another sour day for the fans who have suffered through years of rebuilding and disappointment only to be reminded about the progress of ex-Mariners in the news, as if that somehow makes it better. I for one don’t want to read constant updates about Cliff Lee like we have had to with Griffey, Moyer, and Randy Johnson etc. after they were traded. The whole Cliff Lee saga has been agonizing and I am not excited about the final outcome but I am glad it is finally over.

  I am still going down to Safeco to watch the game though I hear that David Pauley is starting instead of Cliff Lee tonight against the Yankees. This trade is not as devastating as the Randy Johnson trade in 1998, but the state of this franchise is certainly in much worse shape after this trade than we were in 1998. Like a lot of you I enjoyed watching Lee pitch this year and wish him well in the future as we languish behind in AAA Seattle. http://jeffsmariners.com


Tagged: Cliff Lee, Justin Smoak, Lack Zduriencik, Lee traded, Mariners, Texas Rangers

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JUSTIN F***IN’ SMOAK, BABY!

Immediate reaction to the news that Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe have been traded to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and three others (via Facebook):

The deal is now being confirmed. Which means….F***IN RIGHT! WE GOT JUSTIN SMOAK! HOLY SH*T! HOLY SH*T! WE WIN! WE WIN! JACK Z., I’M HAVING YOUR BABY TONIGHT! LET’S GO! LET’S GO! MARINERS, BABY! MARINERS! THAT’S MY F***IN TEAM RIGHT THERE! THAT’S MY TEAM! BEEN WITH YOU SINCE I WAS BORN! LOVE YOU GUYS! LOVE YOU GUYS! JUSTIN SMOAK BABY! JUSTIN F***IN SMOAK! F*** YEAH!

Justin Smoak, for the win.

I love you, Jack.

Goodbye, Casey.


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MARINERS BREAKING: After Trade Musical Chairs, Lee Ends Up in Texas

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Lee and Lowe to Texas for Smoak and Three Others

Originally reported by Joel Sherman and now confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners will send Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and three other players. First, please allow me to say, holy shit. I’m not going to bother talking about what we’re giving up, because you’re already aware. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball, and Mark Lowe is an above average young reliever whose health has become a question mark going forward.

As for what we’re getting, Justin Smoak is really, really good. He’s a switch-hitting first baseman who plays excellent defense and has elite offensive upside. He’s consistently put up eye-popping numbers in the minor leagues, though he’s yet to really put it together at the Major League level. Bottom line: he’s one of the best prospects in the game, and by himself would have been a good return for Cliff Lee. The fact that we’re getting 3 other prospects from one of the best farm systems in baseball is just icing on the cake.

I’ll have more here once there’s more information available.

Edit, 2:10 PM: Looks like the cash amount we’re sending to Texas is $2.5 million

Edit, 2:37 PM: (by Brett) Additional Minor Leaguers are 21-year old RHP Blake Beavan, 25-year old RHP Josh Leuke, 2B/OF Matt Lawson. Beavan is in AAA, the other two are in AA. Beavan was reported to have a 91-96 fastball, and could profile as an MLB starter. Just glancing over Lueke and Lawson, Lueke looks like a high strikeout relief prospect, and Lawson looks like he’s got Utility player upside. Not a bad haul.


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