I’m a bowl prediction junkie. The white board in my work office currently displays a ranking of each Pac-12-related bowl as an object of constant reference. I obsess over bowl projections throughout the season and do my best to forecast at which destination each team will end up. It’s selfish, mostly. My friends and I travel to every University of Washington bowl game and turn the trip into our annual holiday vacation. As a result, we have quite a bit invested in where the Huskies’ postseason contest is played.
Over the past couple years, I’ve spent so much time analyzing bowl prognostications that I got to thinking I could probably just predict this stuff myself. And hey, since I have a website at my disposal, I put two and two together and here we are today.
I won’t pretend I know enough about the rest of the teams around the country to forecast the matchups of every single bowl bout. But I have outlined the likeliest postseason outcome for each Pac-12 football program below. Ranked from most prestigious bowl to least, here are your 2013 Pac-12 bowl predictions.
1. BCS National Championship (Jan. 6, 2014; Pasadena, Calif.): Oregon Ducks
Having leapfrogged Florida State to lay claim to the all-important No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, Oregon now finds itself in the driver’s seat for a championship matchup with Alabama. As much as I hate seeing the Ducks have a shot at a title (which has eluded them thus far, I might add), the rest of the Pac-12 is by now damn near dependent upon Oregon receiving an at-large BCS bowl bid each year. Should Oregon fail to land this coveted matchup, bowl projections the world around fall to pieces.
2. Rose Bowl (Jan. 1, 2014; Pasadena, Calif.): Stanford Cardinal
Though Oregon will likely be the 2013 Pac-12 champion, Stanford will receive the Rose Bowl nod when the Ducks punch their ticket to the BCS Championship. With one potential loss remaining on their schedule (against the aforementioned Oregon Ducks), Stanford should win the rest of their games and end up in Pasadena on New Year’s Day.
3. Alamo Bowl (Dec. 30, 2013; San Antonio, Tex.): UCLA Bruins
This is where the bowl forecast starts to get a little cloudy. While UCLA, Oregon State, and even Arizona State could all be considered for the Pac-12′s second-most prestigious bowl bid, the Bruins should get the green light after winning four of the remaining five games on their schedule. Such an outcome would give UCLA a 9-3 overall record and 6-3 conference mark. Even if Oregon State were to post similar figures, UCLA would probably be the Alamo Bowl’s choice, since the Beavers played in this very game a year ago. Arizona State probably finds itself on the outside looking in as the most likely of this three-headed monster to slip up down the stretch.
4. Holiday Bowl (Dec. 30, 2013; San Diego, Calif.): Oregon State
With last year’s trip to San Antonio weighing heavily on the bowl committee’s mind, Oregon State likely finds itself in the Holiday Bowl upon failing to return to the Alamo Bowl for a second consecutive year.
5. Sun Bowl (Dec. 31, 2013; El Paso, Tex.): Arizona State
Props to El Paso for continuing the tradition of everyone’s least-favorite bowl game, the Sun Bowl. I swear, there is no lesser-preferred vacation destination for fans than this West Texas outpost bordering on Juarez, Mexico. Unfortunately for the Arizona State faithful, it appears the Sun Devils will be making the trip to Juarez North in 2013, thanks in large part to their convincing mid-season win over the Washington Huskies.
6. Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 21, 2013; Las Vegas, Nev.): Washington
For the second straight year, Washington could find itself playing in Sin City with a sixth-place finish in conference. This probably won’t sit too well with Husky fans, but come on, would you rather be in El Paso?
7. Fight Hunger Bowl (Dec. 27, 2013; San Francisco, Calif.): USC
USC may flip-flop with Washington depending on how the Vegas Bowl committee feels about making repeat selections, but assuming the regular season plays out the way one might expect, USC should find itself in line for a trip to San Francisco two days after Christmas.
8. New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 21, 2013; Albuquerque, NM): Arizona
The Wildcats won a 49-48 shootout over Nevada in the 2012 edition of the New Mexico Bowl and should end up back in Albuquerque for a second straight year. As the first bowl game to kickoff the postseason, this is a spot that few teams would like to find themselves in.
9. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 21, 2013; Boise, Ida.): Utah
Typically a bowl nod reserved for the Mountain West Conference’s sixth-place finisher, the MWC is struggling to find itself with enough bowl-eligible teams to earn the right to spend a holiday season in lovely Boise. That leaves the door open for a ninth Pac-12 team to land a bowl appearance, with Utah the most likely of a group including Washington State, California, and Colorado to receive that final bid.
Filed under: Husky Football
The 2013 baseball season is underway and you don’t know how you should feel about our beloved Seattle Mariners. Fear not, M’s fans. I’m not hear to tell you how you should feel (that’s no one’s place), but I can give you 11 reasons why you might be able to shed some cynicism and believe in this year’s team.
Without further delay…
11. Chone Figgins is gone.
Lest you think three years of vitriol directed towards the Mariners’ sometimes-third baseman was unwarranted, consider this:
In 2012, the team had a record of 75-87 (.451). Chone Figgins appeared in 67 games, during which time the Mariners plodded along at a 26-41 rate (.388). In the remaining 95 games, sans Figgins, the team played at an above-.500 clip, amassing a 49-46 total (.516). Damn near unbelievable.
The trend doesn’t end there, either. Over Figgins’ three-year tenure with the club, the M’s put together a less-than-impressive 203-283 win-loss sum (.418). With their diminutive Donkey from Shrek lookalike in the lineup, the team was just 123-186 (.398). Without him? Try five-plus percentage points higher, .451, at 80-97. So yeah, he actually did make a difference. In the worst way possible.
On top of all that, Figgy just wasn’t very likable, and at the end of the day, paying the guy $8.5 million to go away was worth it simply from a public relations standpoint. The public hated Figgins and now he’s gone. That’s good P.R. if I’ve ever seen it.
10. They get to play Houston 19 times this year.
Nineteen times!!! That’s like 19 games against a semi-pro squad!
I’m telling you right now, the American League Western Division champion will be the team that has the most victories over the Astros. This may as well be a presidential election, and Houston may as well be our Ohio. Swing state, all the way.
9. Felix Hernandez will make at least 30 starts.
That’s like 30 wins right there. A third of our triumphs are basically already counted for.
8. Every A.L. West team has its fair share of warts.
The Mariners may have some question marks at the back end of their rotation, as well as the ever-looming threat of a power outage in the lineup, but they certainly aren’t alone in showcasing a few blemishes on their pate.
Down in Los Angeles (better known to geography aficianados as “Anaheim”), the Angels are dealing with a revamped starting pitching staff that lost an ace (Zack Greinke) and a mainstay (Ervin Santana). Though Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson were obtained to fill the respective voids, one could easily infer that the overall quality of the rotation, one through five, has decreased.
In Oakland, the Athletics are comprised of the usual mish-mash of journeymen, up-and-comers, and no-names. If everything plays to perfection, the team will make a strong push around August, per usual. But as always, the A’s will be in wait-and-see mode until that time. A few key losses along the way and this team has just as good a chance to be out of the playoff picture as they do to be in it come late-summer.
The Rangers were most stricken by defections over the offseason, losing the heart of their order (Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli) and the soul of their team (Michael Young) to other ballclubs. Pitching is always a concern in Texas, and this year is no different. Relying heavily on a de facto ace in Matt Harrison and a soon-to-be-ace in Yu Darvish, the Rangers will need to keep all their arms healthy in order to stay at the top of the standings. An increased workload for Darvish, however, could very well land him on the disabled list by mid-year.
And then there’s Houston…yeah.
Point is, this division is by no means closed. The A’s were AL West champs a year ago, and they’re certainly no favorite to repeat. The Angels are considered the leaders in the clubhouse to finish first, but the same could have been said a year ago and they floundered. The Rangers have been to the World Series twice in the past three years, but they’re a completely different squad this season. The Astros are a punching bag who will serve as a season-long spoiler. And the Mariners are lying in the weeds, on the rise and with the ability to seize a golden opportunity if they so desire. It’s anyone’s race.
7. They have a real-life middle-of-the-order now.
The Mariners’ 2013 Opening Day lineup featured a 5-6-7-8 combo of Justin Smoak, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and Dustin Ackley, in that order. This same quartet was counted on last season to fill out the heart of the team’s lineup, often batting in some arrangement of 2-3-4-5. The difference? The arrivals of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales.
Morse and Morales may not be first-tier major league stars, but they are imposing figures in a lineup that has lacked exactly that for many years now. Each is capable of blasting 30-plus home runs, while neither should sacrifice much in the way of average as they supply that power — Morse is a career .295 batter, while Morales has hit at a .280 pace over his big league tenure.
The presence of the M’s M&M duo has taken a hefty dose of pressure off the likes of the aforementioned youngsters, Smoak, Seager, Montero, and Ackley. Rather than being asked to carry the lineup, these four can now simply focus on contributing. And as a bonus, the team as a whole should see an uptick in offensive production.
6. The bullpen is ridiculous.
Three guys who consistently flirt with triple digits on the radar gun.
A guy who would start for many teams in the league.
A hard-throwing lefty with a (figurative) chip on his shoulder.
A left-handed specialist who can pitch two innings, if needed.
A six-foot-eight-inch ex-starter who can throw in long relief, middle relief, or simply induce a ground ball if needed.
Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, and Tom Wilhelmsen.
You might not know all the names yet. But you will.
5. They instituted $5 draft beer at Safeco Field.
Look. We all know this team won’t win every game. Heck, they might not win enough games to make the postseason. It’s a real possibility, and frankly, considered a likelihood at this point. So what do we do when they lose? Drink. And if you happen to be at a game and the team is losing (or, you know, winning — the outcome is kind of irrelevant), you can drink for cheaper than you drank last year.
I noticed a glaring absence at Safeco Field in 2012: cheap beer. Of course, when it comes to big league ballparks, the term “cheap beer” is entirely relative. But two years ago, the team offered more affordable options like Miller High Life and Busch Light for around $6 per pint (as opposed to around $8.75 per pint for your standard American domestic draft).
I made the omission known to my buddy Kevin Martinez, who also doubles as the team’s Vice President of Marketing. Kevin took that information, then went and did us all a solid.
Thanks to Kevin and his team, instead of $6 cheap beers on tap, we now have $5 cheap beers on tap. And that deal exists every day at the ballpark. There’s no special arrangement for this sort of thing. It’s every single day.
The $5 beers are sold at two locations in the stadium: at a new bar behind home plate, right next to the semi-hidden Mariners Hall of Fame; and at a stand right outside the entrance to the Hit It Here Cafe.
They’re not bar prices, they’re not happy hour prices, but for a professional sporting event, this is about as good as it gets. I can’t justify a $9 Bud Light. But I can damn well sip on a $5 High Life and not feel bad about it. In this instance at least, we can thank the organization for doing right by the fans.
4. Ichiro is gone.
We all love Ichiro. He’s a baseball icon, a Mariners legend, and a future Hall of Famer. To label him otherwise would be entirely unjust.
For all his greatness, however, Ichiro served as a symbol of the franchise’s decade-long struggles with ineptitude. Though he bridged the gap from the team’s success of the 116-win 2001 season, Ichiro was not so much a leader as he was an individual talent that existed amidst a backdrop of failure.
As time went by and the Mariners continued their losing ways, Ichiro’s presence became less of a boon and more of a burden on a roster desperate for dramatic turnover. A veritable statue both in right field and atop the batting order, the aging outfielder blocked younger players from reaching the majors (consider that over his playing career, the M’s traded away the likes of Adam Jones and Shin-Soo Choo), and arguably stunted the development of others (Casper Wells and Michael Saunders, to name two).
With Ichiro’s departure last summer, the M’s have finally absolved themselves of the man who had come to personify the organization’s lack of commitment to winning. Entering our first full year without such a stalwart along for the ride will allow the team to finally emerge from the long shadow Ichiro cast upon this entire ballclub.
3. They have players who actually want to be here.
Raul Ibanez is back, and that says a lot. Yeah, the cynics will say that this is just another futile attempt at rekindling the flame with one of Seattle’s favorite sons, but that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Sure, in the past the Mariners have been known to flirt with nostalgia, but the differences between Ibanez and, say, a Ken Griffey Jr. are two-fold. One, Ibanez is still a productive major leaguer, even at the ripe old age of 40. And two, Ibanez elected to play here not out of sentimentality, but because he knows he can make a difference with a team that, believe it or not, has playoff potential.
Mike Morse is back, and that says a lot, too. Shortly after being acquired from the Nationals over the offseason, Morse took to all forms of media (print, radio, social) and announced his unbridled enthusiasm for a return to the Pacific Northwest. It was a little surprising, seeing as how his career never really took off until after the lanky outfielder shed his Mariners uniform, but the giddiness and excitement seemed genuine and resonated with fans at the same time.
These are just two individuals, of course, but if you think back over the past decade, there aren’t too many guys you can name who were this eager to play for the M’s.
“Buying in” is a mantra preached across the street, more synonymous with our football team than the club inhabiting Safeco Field. Short of Pete Carroll positioning himself atop the steps of the first base dugout, however, Morse and Ibanez have single-handedly perpetuated a culture of “team” that has been sorely lacking on this squad for years. Instead of individuals with personal agendas floating through our ballpark before embarking elsewhere, it seems that these two acquisitions (re-acquisitions) alone have changed the mentality of the on-field product for the better.
2. They’re undefeated.
As of print time, the Mariners are 2-0 and by definition among the best teams in Major League Baseball. Though some curmudgeonly pundits will have you believe otherwise, that record and those two initial triumphs are not entirely inconsequential. Every win, any win, is a great thing.
1. They’re likable.
Yeah, I get it. As long as Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong head up this organization, there will always be at least two reasons to loathe the Seattle Mariners. Forget those guys. They happen to be a pair of flies on our glorious buffet spread. They’ll get theirs eventually, and their legacies will always outlive their own regimes. Beyond the dictatorship of two bumbling fools, there’s a lot of good permeating throughout this team.
When it comes to the on-field product, let’s face it, it’s tough to despise the Mariners. There’s no Figgins and no Ichiro. There are no Milton Bradleys, no Jack Custs, no Johjimas or Sexsons or Lopezes or any other albatrosses destined to drag this team through the mud for a season.
This team is young, it’s rejuvenated, it has the potential to be entertaining, to be successful, to be a joy to watch play. It’s filled with promise (Ackley, Seager, Montero, Saunders, Brandon Maurer, to name five) and production (Morse, Morales, Felix, to name three).
There are smiles in the clubhouse, there are players who seem to enjoy one another’s company, and there’s a sense of quiet confidence that can be felt by fans.
There aren’t jerks wearing SEATTLE across their chests. There aren’t any unwarranted, bloated contracts raising eyebrows and lowering hopes. There aren’t slap-hitting pansies trying to pick fights with their manager. There aren’t malcontents pouting on the bench. There aren’t egotists pulling up half-assed on fly balls, unwilling to sell out for their teammates.
For the first time in a long time, this team feels like it’s headed in the right direction. Whether that leads us to the promised land in 2013 remains to be seen. Without a doubt, though, it’s something we can all believe in. That belief alone should be reason for optimism.
Filed under: Mariners
Damn it. It’s 5:15 p.m. on January 2nd. Do you know what this means? It means all the goddamn gyms are about to fill up with a bunch of goddamn people who are committed to no more than three solid weeks of exercise before putting it all to rest for the next 341 days of the year. That’s what anyone who’s about to head to the gym has to look forward to.
Wouldn’t you know it, I’m about to go to the gym right now. And when I get there, it will be a circus. I already know this. And I’m still going. In hopes that all those usually-unmotivated-but-currently-motivated jerks who ooze around the weight room this time of year don’t show up. I will likely be disappointed. Such is life. A college-aged girl on Twitter would slap this entire rant with a big ol’ #FIRSTWORLDPROBLEMS hashtag. But that’s only semi-accurate. If the second- or third-world had to experience this crap, they’d be pissed, too. You’ve been eating McDonald’s for three decades and you’re gonna try to make up for all that by reading a magazine while you crawl on the elliptical for seven minutes? Good luck with that shit. The secret is Diet Coke, you know. Pick up six cheeseburgers and a Diet Coke and you’re good to go. Healthy eating right there. And sugar free gum. No more Bazooka. That what’s been causing all your problems. Bubble gum and orange soda.
Be honest. How many of you mailed it in in 2012 thinking the Mayans were right and the world really was going to end? Every time you were faced with a bad decision, you jokingly uttered the “It’s cool! The world’s ending soon, anyway!” caveat and everything was okay. I know. I did it, too. I feel like 2012 was the year we let it all go. I put on a little weight, I didn’t work out as often as I’d like, I wrote one article a week (maybe), I abused the crap out of Twitter…all told, it was a disaster. And I wager I’m not alone in having lived that disaster.
For most of us, 2012 was like watching an episode of Dance Moms. You spent most of your time sitting there thinking, This is dumb, I shouldn’t be doing this. And yet somehow, against all rationality, you managed to get sucked into the stupidity of it all, knowing nothing good would come of your actions, yet letting yourself be swayed anyway. We wallowed through an entire year knowing we’d likely have to pay for our laziness so long as the world didn’t end. Our out was the world ending! How is that an out? That should never be an out! I blame the Mayans. They cost us a year. Effing Mayans. Who would have thought an ancient civilization could be wrong like that?
So this is it. The latest rendition of the new year. 2013. The rebound year. The year we atone for all of 2012′s miscues. I’m good with that. I anxiously await the challenge of actually having to follow through on stuff because the world will (knock on wood) not be ending anytime soon. We might as well enjoy our time together.
You know, a lot of people like to start off each new year with predictions. They like to take wild stabs at a handful of things that might happen over the next 12 months. The Mariners might make the playoffs. The Seahawks might find their way to a Super Bowl. The Sonics might make their long-awaited return to their rightful place on the map. I certainly hope all those things happen. But I’m not about to predict their occurrence. Predictions are overrated. You’re setting yourself up for failure with predictions. And there was enough failure in 2012 to last us quite a while. Let’s not start down that rabbit hole again.
Instead, I’ll simply say this.
I hope 2013 gives us more positive local sports stories to discuss. Because 2012, for the most part, was a cesspool. Outside of the final couple months of the year, when our football teams delivered brighter talking points, anyone opining on Seattle sports spent most of the year vomiting out the same drivel each time they put fingers to keypads. Nobody wants that. Yeah, it’s fun to make jokes about Chone Figgins and the like, but only in a cruel, sadistic way. We’d all rather laugh at another city’s expense. We haven’t been able to do that much over the years. So I hope this is the year.
And with that hope in mind, I eagerly await all the passion that each and every one of you bring to the table as fans. Win or lose, it’s always great interacting with all of you. I know for me, that passion has always served as a huge motivator to write. Without the exuberance so many of you share, I would have a tough time leading myself to a text editor with any kind of regularity. Keep it up. It’s fun to be a part of, and you all deserve to be heard. Your voice is crucial in making the Seattle sports scene as venerable as it is.
With that, I encourage all of you to insert your own cliche about this being a new beginning or a fresh start or something like that in the space below. Here’s the space:
That was great. I’m glad we got to experience that together. This is an interactive article now. We’re ahead of the curve here at Seattle Sportsnet!
Cliches aside, I’m looking forward to another year with you crazy fools. Best of luck at the gym over the next few weeks, and thanks for surviving 2012 with me.
Filed under: Other Sports