What Have Schneider’s Picks Done For You?: A Study In The Production of The 2010-2012 Draft Classes

January 24, 2013; Honolulu, HI, USA; NFC free safety Earl Thomas of the Seattle Seahawks (29) runs with the ball during practice for the 2013 Pro Bowl at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

As the upcoming draft has dominated the NFL news landscape in recent weeks it has got me thinking back on the last few drafts the Seahawks have had. On Monday I looked at the John Schneider and Pete Carroll’s preferences and today I am examining the impact their draft picks have made over the last three years. Although I would consider it too early to judge the quality of these drafts in their entirety, I think it is fair to show you the gross production accumulated by the draft picks under this regime to give a sense of the kind of early impact they have had on this franchise. My going in assumption was that the draft classes of 2010-2012 have been very productive for Seattle and that proved to be entirely correct.

Let’s start with the very successful 2012 class:

Offense

In a defense-heavy draft these numbers were accumulated by, with the exception of J.R Sweezy’s playing time, Russell Wilson and Robert Turbin, both of whom were major contributors this year. Given that we all know how successful Wilson’s rookie year was; the number that really stands out here is the 843 rushing yards provided by these rookies, which served as quite the compliment to Marshawn Lynch’s 1590 yards as the feature back. The raw production is very good and probably trending upward for both players in the future.

Defense

Despite the fact the Seahawks drafted 7 defensive players in 2012 almost all of this production is accounted for by Bobby Wagner. That being said, the Seahawks defensive rookies proved valuable in situational roles, most notably Bruce Irvin and Greg Scruggs rushing the passer (10 combined sacks). Also of note were performances by rookies asked to move up the depth chart (ie. Jeremy Lane’s play starting for Brandon Browner). These numbers are already respectable and figure to improve, especially if Bruce Irvin continues to grow as a player.

Moving on to the 2011 draft class, we see a group that has contributed a great deal, especially defensively:

Offense

These measures of production don’t really include offensive line play and as a result this draft class comes off a great deal worse than it is. Even so, the Seahawks’ top two picks in this draft have only combined for 31 of a possible 64 starts on the offense line, which is far from ideal. James Carpenter has a chance to have a future as a starter in Seattle for years to come if he can stay healthy, whereas John Moffit seems more likely to be a depth piece at the end of the day. The only other offensive player from this class, Kris Durham, has already moved on.

Defense

This draft class was a gold mine in terms of defensive talent. Headlined by CB Richard Sherman and OLB K.J Wright the 2011 draftees have more than held their own in the NFL thus far. Wright and Sherman are both quality starters and Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith are excellent depth players who have made plays when called upon. Nothing to complain about here.

Lastly, let’s examine the production the Seahawks have gotten from Schneider and Carroll’s inaugural draft class in 2010:

Offense

Russell Okung and Golden Tate are both excellent picks and they make up most of the numbers seen here. Anthony McCoy has done more than most 6^th round picks and Jameson Konz unfortunately never really delivered on his promise. It says something about this front office’s drafting acumen when we actively contemplate 7^th rounders that never amounted to anything.

Defense

These totals are compiled primarily by the safety duo of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor with contributions from Walter Thurmond III and Dexter Davis.

There are a lot of numbers to chew on here and before I delve into them I’d like to point out the obvious flaws in them before you do.

Firstly, the contributions of offensive lineman are downplayed here because their on-field production is not quantified by the statistics I have used. This is especially unfortunate given the Seahawks have spent 2 of their last 4 first round picks on the O-Line. Although their inclusion in terms of games and games started is significant, looking at these production charts does underplay the importance of a Russell Okung or a James Carpenter.

Secondly, although one could argue that in a way the number of games started by each draft class is the best way to measure their contribution to the franchise, it can be problematic because it prizes quantity over quality. Just because a player started or played in a game it doesn’t mean they played well. On the other hand, if the player is terrible they are unlikely to play or start so there is some implication of effectiveness just by appearing in games consistently.

Lastly, by specifying draft picks we leave the contributions of undrafted free agent gems like Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner.

Ultimately, I think the thing to get out of this is that this front office has done a good job of selecting players that have provided significant, tangible, and quantifiable production for this franchise. This team has been turned over and completely remade during the Pete Carroll era and the primary vehicle for this overhaul has been the draft. In 2010 7.7% of the starts made by Seahawks players were made by draft picks of this front office. In 2011 that number climbed to 28.4% and last year is was 42.6%. Those numbers more than any others capture the impact of the last three draft classes, and if John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to have excellent drafts that number will continue expanding exponentially. Give this duo another three years and we will be looking at a truly homegrown squad, and by and large those are the type of teams that win championships.

Tags: Earl Thomas, featured, football, John Schneider, nfl, Pete Carroll, Popular, Richard Sherman, Robert Turbin, Russell Okung, Russell Wilson, Seahawks

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